FantasySavvy Football: Buy Low, Sell High

By Kevin Lewis

Buy Low

RB Eddie Lacy– Lacy was a top 7 pick in the majority of leagues during the draft process. In the first two games, he has 25 carries for 77 yards and five catches for 29 yards with no touchdowns. Lacy has gone up against two of the best run defenses in the sport in Seattle and the New York Jets and the Packers have trailed for much of those contests.

The Detroit Lions, the Packers week 3 opponents, let up an average of 19.5 PPG to opposing RBs which is good for 9th in the NFL. That game is going to feature a lot of points so there is a good chance Lacy scores. The window to buy him low probably extends through that game. After that, the schedule softens as he faces the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. His perceived value will probably be rehabilitated by that point. If you want him, now is the time to try.

RB Montee Ball-Montee Ball was a popular pick amongst pundits and fans alike for a breakout campaign. That may still happen but it’s been a pretty slow beginning for Ball as he has 35 carries for 127 yards(1 TD), 5 catches for 45 yards in two contests. He hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t proven to be worth the late first/early second that was likely used to get him. The person who owns him might be willing to part ways.

I will say this about Ball in that I don’t think NOW is necessarily the time to target him. His upcoming schedule is @Seattle, bye, ARI, and @NYJ. It could be rough sledding over those four weeks and I think he could come at a pretty reasonable price after the week 6 tilt with the Jets. If you can get him now for a reasonable price, go for it. I suggest you wait it out a bit and keep a close eye on the developments with Ball over the next month.

TE Rob Gronkowski– For most rational people I don’t think the first two weeks for Gronkowski has been a grand surprise. We expected him to be limited on reps, and for him to take a bit to get his legs underneath him. In the first two weeks, he has eight catches for 72 yards and a touchdown.

This weekend, the Patriots square off with a putrid Raiders team in a game that should feature a ton of running/clock burning in what will be a rout. The last time these teams faced off, S Tyvon Branch held Gronkowski to 1 catch for 4 yards and that was at the height of Gronk’s powers. I don’t expect that again but it could be a slow afternoon for #87. If it proves to be, send an offer for him. Gronk wrecks games. Fantasy football is all about finding people exactly like that, injury risk be damned. Scared money don’t make money.

SELL HIGH

RB Matt Asiata- This is less about what he’s done and more about what he is. He simply isn’t very good at football. I don’t know the agendas of the Vikings coaching staff but they started this kid last week and he had 13 carries for 36 yards along with 5 catches and 48 yards and a receiving TD on a busted coverage by the Patriots. Jerick McKinnon, the extremely gifted backup, has some kinks to work out in pass protection in order to stay on the field. He gave up a sack in three pass protection opportunities last week and that needs to improve if his reps are going to increase. There is someone in your league that may be desperate for RB help and are enticed by Asiata’s volume. If you can afford to, SELL SELL SELL.

RB DeMarco Murray– I say this with a disclaimer. I’m really high on DeMarco Murray this year as I do think he will finish as a top 5-6 back assuming he plays 14+ games. That said, his value will NEVER be higher than what it is right now. Through two games, he has 51 carries for 285 yards (2 TD), and 4 catches for 31 yards. His start leads to a lot of questions though. Is Dallas going to remain committed to the run? How long is DeMarco going to last if he keeps getting touches at or near this rate? Do you move him now because of his injury history and his heavy workload? If you aren’t getting a great haul, he probably should be kept but there is no time like the present to move him.

RB Giovani Bernard- Bernard is an absolute PPR dynamo thus far as he is one of two RBs in the league with 125+ yards both rushing and receiving (Le’Veon Bell). In two games, he has 41 carries for 138 yards (1 TD), and 11 catches for 141 yards. His 3.3 YPC is a little worrisome but if he keeps getting the volume he is getting, any concerns about that will be alleviated. With WR AJ Green likely sitting out the game against Tennesee this Sunday, it’s a game where Bernard could put together another monster stat line. With Jeremy Hill looming in the background, Bernard’s value may never be higher than it is after this Sunday. It’s worth putting out feelers on him to see what the market is like. He’s off to a torrid start.

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