FantasySavvy 2017: Super Bowl 51 Analysis & Prediction

Super Bowl Sunday, an American staple and unofficial National Holiday. It will be official once they make Monday a day off. Everybody is mostly shot out anyway after drinking tons of beer, wine, vodka, coke, Dr. Pepper or whatever. Then add in all the wings, chips, dips, etc. and most people feel like their name is Gorky Tuckens come Monday Morning. Might as well just give everybody the day off. But the Super Bowl is something everybody and their Mother will watch. Well while you are stuffing your face and talking to some guy who you never met before you may miss a big play or two. Or if you’re talking to your Friends Wife’s sisters friend, nevermind just try to have some good laughs with your buddies or close family and watch as much as you can! Also some guy named Tucker Beencorse will leave during halftime because he has a long ride home, has an early flight somewhere or an early meeting. Or another guy will start telling a story about how he grew up in Delaware and be loud as hell about it. Some other young chic might be too drunk and loud. Kids will be running around screaming. Point is the Super Bowl is usually a game you can’t fully focus on because of so many different people being around. For me it’s a time to meet up with my friends I haven’t seen in a while and have a good time, but I def miss a lot of things and can’t fully focus in like I usually do. End of the day it is what it is, enjoy the game and make sure to fully tune in when it matters! Enjoy the orange pasted guacomole roasted pepper bean dip that your Friends wife made from some random internet recipe.  On to the game at hand……………….

ATLANTA

I liked Matt Ryan early in his career, but over the last few seasons it looked like he was starting to regress. He would start out hot but flop in the 2nd half the season and in the Playoffs. This year you could notice there was something different when you watched Ryan. His arm looked stronger, he looked much more decisive and was making deep, accurate throws with consistency. Ryan must have taken an off-season approach to really improve his body, arm and mind. Also Kyle Shanahan helped tremendously with his play calling and offensive design. Ryan looks like he has mastered this offense and it has shown all season.

Julio Jones, not much to say other than the play vs the Packers last week where he stiff armed and out ran the defense on his way to a TD shows how gifted and talented he is. The trade the Falcons made for him by giving up all those draft picks was for made for this reason, to win them a Super Bowl. I remember agreeing with the trade at the time, because how many times can you get a sure-fire player like that in the draft. Jones was an animal in College and his game has translated perfectly. We will see if that trade fully pays off today. It will be very interesting to see how the Pats go about covering him.

The Falcons running game is obviously another huge concern for Pats. Freeman and Coleman are both young, fresh, dynamic and extremely talented RB’s. Both are effective out of the backfield and Shanahan uses them in the passing game wisely. Many times throughout the season he had these guys lined up against guys who had no business covering them. Freeman has the ability to make guys miss and is one of the more agile backs in the league. Coleman is more of a one cut straight away runner but he hits holes hard and has good speed.

The Falcons main role players Sanu, Gabriel and Austin Hooper also are solid players. Sanu may have a big game if the Pats really go all out on stopping Julio. Hooper I think has a future in this league and he could have a nice game today, the Pats aren’t great at defending Tight Ends. Gabriel hasn’t done much in recent weeks with a fully healthy Julio, but is still a threat because of his explosive speed.

The Falcons Defense isn’t great statistically but is young, talented and I trust Dan Quinn will have his guys fully prepared. Vic Beasley led the NFL in sacks and obviously creating pressure on Brady will be a huge factor. Normally when you see Brady struggle it’s early and often and that happens consistently throughout the game. Brady just looks uncomfortable all game. I have seen it many times,  the Jets historically have always done a good job at disrupting Brady every now and then. We’ve seen the Giants do it to him twice in the Super Bowl. This is usually when Brady and the Pats lose, when defense create consistent pressure on him. However, I don’t think this will be the case in this game, but the Alanta defense may be able to make a big play or two to swing this game in their favor. Sometimes it just takes one big play.

NEW ENGLAND

Tom Brady wins this game and the talks begin for the next two weeks about him being the best of all-time. It is amazing what he has done throughout his career. Brady has perfected a few things. Accuracy, pocket presence and mastery of this offense. Ryan has mastered his offense this year, but Brady has mastered his offense long ago because he has been in the same system forever. That is why you get all these new guys in the offense over the years and Brady just keeps rolling along with success. The Pats also do a great job of just keeping that continuity within the team, bringing in the same type of players to just plug-in. It’s like a Plug n Play offense. Brady knows his offense like the back of the house he grew up in. This can not be overlooked, this is truly one of the main reasons why Brady is so great. It’s like a book he has read 200 times.

The popular narrative in this game seems to be that LeGarrette Blount having a big role in this game. It makes a ton of sense, since the Falcons haven’t been great at defending the run this year and it will also help keep the Falcons offense off the field. Also Dion Lewis fumbled twice in their Divisional Round matchup vs Houston leading to decreased snaps in the AFC Championship game vs the Steelers. Maybe Bill doesn’t fully trust Dion in this game? No doubt Dion will be used, but maybe Bill is a little more reluctant to rely on Dion. Maybe we see more James White. Either way, the Pats backs will be used in the offense, as they have done historically. Will we see a lot of Blount? The logic says yes. Certainly Dion Lewis is a very talented back and he should be utilized often in this game. But you just never know what the Pats may do.

Julian Edelman is a staple in this offense and he will likely lead the Pats in receiving in this game. The Falcons play mostly man defense and the Pats will be ready for that with a lot of man beaters running rubs, pick plays and using Edelman in motion to free him up. Chris Hogan has emerged recently as a Brady favorite, exploding in the AFC Championship game. He is a good player and should have a nice game as well. I like Malcolm Mitchell as a player and he was coming on towards the end of the season but now with Hogan back healthy and also Danny Amendola he has been phased out again. I think they should utilize him more in this game. Amendola who knows what he will do. Bennett is playing hurt and hasn’t been that effective of late, but maybe he just goes all out in this game. Regardless Brady has a lot of weapons at his disposal and all of these guys seem to be on the same page with Tom.

The Pats Defense has allowed the fewest points in the league, but if  you look at their schedule, they have faced some awful offenses and QB’s. Brock Osweiler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Charlie Whitehurst, Landry Jones, etc. The best two QB’s they faced in the Regular season were Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson and both guys had good success with QB ratings over 100. Yes they did a good job on Ben last week, but Ben was horrible on the road all season, just not the same player he was at home. I don’t think this defense will do much to disrupt the Falcons offense.

PREDICTION

I think this is going to be another great Super Bowl coming down to the very end. The Pats have been in some very good Super Bowls and I think it continues today. I also think this game is going to be very high scoring. This is the highest total ever in a Super Bowl at 58 points and I think the score exceeds that. I believe this could be the highest scoring SB ever. The highest ever to date was Super Bowl 29 when the 49ers and Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Ricky Watters, destroyed the San Diego Chargers led by Stan Humphries, Junior Seau and Natrone Means Business. The 49ers won 49-26 for a total of 75 points. I really think this game could exceed that. The reason I believe this is because the mastery of the offenses by both of these QB’s, combined with a lack of a truly elite defense on either side. Both of these offenses are models of consistency and it may come down to whoever has the ball last.

I believe the Pats will be to get mostly anything they want on offense whether it’s LeGarrette Blount or a whole lot of Julian Edelman/Chris Hogan. I also believe the Falcons will be able get what they want with Matt Ryan having an excellent game and the RB’s producing a good amount of combined yards in the running and passing game. This game is going to be a high-powered offensive shootout led by two excellent QB’s.

As I am writing this, I still don’t have a good feel for who will win this game. My logic tells me the Patriots, but my heart tells me the Falcons, although there is some logic thrown in there as well. The majority are picking the Patriots and rightly so. Part of me wants to say Brady and Belichick have one more in them or maybe even two more. They would really be the greatest ever breaking all records. Records are made to be broken. Another part of me says the Falcons and owner Arthur Blank will get a championship that has been a long time coming for their organization and city. The Braves in 1995 were the last time this city won anything. I could see such a quality coach in Dan Quinn hoisting the Lombardi trophy, with Julio Jones or Matt Ryan being the MVP. But Tom Brady may want this Super Bowl more than any other, since his Mom has not been to one of his games all year as she has been sick with some kind of ailment. She will be there today to watch her son. I could see Tom dedicating this win to his mom at the end of the game.

How will Alex Mack’s broken fibula effect the Falcons offense and running game? Will the Patriots be able to control the game and keep the Falcons offense off the field with LeGarrette Blount? Will Julio be contained? Will it matter? So many questions. But I have decided.

I am picking the Atlanta Falcons to win this game. Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, are just too dynamic for me to pick against. Yes the Pats have Brady and Belichick, but I think the Falcons are the better team. I see Vic Beasley making one huge play in this game that will swing the game. But even with that big play, this game will not be won by defense it will be won by offense. I think the Falcons offense is a well oiled machine even more so than the Pats. This game will be high scoring and exciting. Their will be a lot of lead changes. So let’s go with this, Falcons 41, Patriots 38.

Enjoy the games be safe and have a blessed Sunday. Please follow me on twitter @FantasySavvy. Next season we will have our podcast every week along with our weekly film review, NFL Picks and daily and seasonal league info. In the meantime it’s College Hoops with some NBA here and there. March Madness is almost here!

 

 

King of Harpoons 2017: Divisional Round Analysis

Welcome back everyone as we get geared up for the divisional round of the playoffs. Hope everyone had a great week. It’s time to kick back and enjoy some great games this weekend. Screw the politics and all the banter, set that all aside this weekend, as this is what makes America great and enjoyable.

One round and four games are in the books with 7 games and three rounds left to play in the postseason. The Wild Card round provided slight clarity as to who really has a shot at winning this prestigious tournament, but so much can change still and it will only be after this weekend that we will truly have a good idea at who the true contenders are. If you didn’t read my post draft review you can check that here. Now we will get to a preview of the Divisional Round along with some projected scores and updated odds.

Bob Portman currently leads the pack after the WildCard round with 113.05 points and 6 players remaining. Bob’s team is solely reliant on Le’Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers winning this week and going to the promise land. The only other truly point producing players are Davante Adams and the Falcons D. If he can get all 3 of these teams to advance he is in business. The other three remaining players, Teron Ward, Chris Conley and DeAngelo Williams are going to give him next nothing.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 42 Points.

Updated Odds: 25-1

2nd Place is being held by Greg and Sandra Santos aka MamaBaDay60. They sit at 106.10 points with 6 players left. They got two huge opening round performances from Thomas Rawls and Antonio Brown and need these core players to advance. Or at least one of them. Alex Smith makes his playoff debut this weekend as does Cole Beasley, two solid selections. His other remaining players are Jesse James and Jeff ” My Mom makes one hell of a meatloaf” Janis. I like their position more so than RJPortman’s as they will move ahead of him after this round. I think they has a very nice shot to take this tournament down.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 56 Points.

Updated Odds: 10-1

KennyD was the brunt of many jokes around these circles including from yours truly after his surprising lackluster draft performance. But that all changed 4pm last Saturday as Big Brock Osweiler and Ryan Griffin got off to a hot start and then on Sunday when Randall Cobb finished with three TD’s. Ken has 105.10 points and has all 11 players left. But that  will likely dwindle heavily after this weekend. Ken will just have to hope Brock gives him some kind of solid performance before he bows out this weekend against the Pats. He will also need the Packers to keep it rolling as he has both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. Nelson will be out this weekend however, but maybe Cobb can perform for the both of them like he did last week. Devonta Freeman is a key piece that he will having going and his other two best producing players are Steven Hauschka and Steelers D. Lance Dunbar, Lucky Whitehead, Sammie Coates and Jermaine Kearse likely will give him less than 10 points combined this weekend, but you never know maybe Sammie  or Jermaine  come out of the woodwork somehow. While Ken had a good start to this tournament, Ol’ Gary thinks he doesn’t have the lasting power to sustain. But he proved us wrong last week, maybe he can again.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 65 Points

Updated Odds: 30-1

Frank Thoma aka Griplip is in 4th place with 98.25 points and 8 players left. Frank will need Seattle to win today and advance to the SuperBowl to have any shot to win this as Doug Baldwin and the Seattle D anchor the team. DeAndre Hopkins is going bye-bye after this weekend, but maybe he go out with a bang. LeGarrette Blount is the last main piece that he will need to remain and as this is the New England Invitational in the AFC, Blount will likely last all the way. But we will get enough points from the others? Jared Cook, Demarcus Ayers, and Justin Hardy aren’t going to get it done. He will need Cairo Santos to advance this week and have a nice performance. Frank needs a Seattle/Pats SB. It is possible.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 72 Points

Updated Odds: 15-1

Espo aka Zerooo is in 5th place with 85.60 points and 9 players left. Can Aaron Rodgers keep it going and keep the Packers winning streak alive? Espo’s chances rest on his shoulders. He also has Ty Montgomery. Dez Byrant and Dan Bailey are the insurance in case the Pack do go down. Paul Richardson had a huge opening round game and he will need him to advance as well.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 78 Points

Updated Odds: 10-1

DKDMoney, Dylan and Jake, the DeAngelo Bros are in 6th place with 75.95 points and 6 players left. They simply need a Cowboys and Chiefs SB with Zeke and Kelce. The rest of team is going to do next to nothing for them with guys like Terrance Williams, James Starks and Darius-Heyward Bey. The Texans D are done after this game and they lost their kicker and QB last round. Not a great introductory Harpooner for the young gunners, but they should get better over the years.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 45 Points

Updated Odds: 50-1

7th spot is Chase Licata with 67.90 points and 9 players left. Chase like Frank, also needs a Seattle/New England SB with Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham, Malcolm Mitchell (questionable this week) and Chris Hogan. Well really he needs Seattle to go all the way because the Pats guys just won’t produce enough. Witten, Packers D and Nick Novak are his other best point producing players left. Seattle or Bust.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 70 Points

Updated Odds: 13-1

Swift456, Steve DeAngelo is in 8th place with 56.60 points and 7 players left. O’Dell Beckham was a killer as he was his 2nd pick overall and provided just five points. At least Jarvis Landry went out with a bang and 22 points. Steve needs both #1 Seeds to stick to the script and get to the SB as he has Dak, Cowboys D, Gostkowski, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola. The only other decent contributor he has is Christine Michael. Steve has the most likely SB scenario so his chances look very good, but if the Cowboys lose this weekend he is done.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 59 Points

Updated Odds: 5-1

9th place currently is Evan Swalling with 40.85 points and 8 players left. Evan’s squad is heavy AFC with Big Ben, Jeremy Maclin, Martellus Bennett and James White repping as the teams best remaining performers. Really the only chance I see Evan having is if the Steelers go to the Superbowl. But that would likely be offset by MamaBaDay and RJPortman having Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown and already being so far ahead in points. Plus Ben has been bad on the road all season and is playing with a bum ankle because Mike Tomlin had him in during garbage time. Maybe he can squeeze in a Taylor Gabriel SB appearance with an explosion in points his next three games. Gary don’t see though. Reminds me I need to eat more carrots and bring my dear Mother to the Eye Doc tomorrow.

Divisional Round Projected Score:62 Points 

Updated Odds 40-1

10th Place Robby D/Freehole23 with 37.70 points and 8 players left. Rob’s first pick Tom Brady goes off this weekend and should light up the scoreboard against the Texans. But outside of Brady where is he going to get points from? Michael Floyd? Tevin Coleman? Sanu? Pats are likely going to the SB, but will that be enough to get it done? He will need Michael Floyd to become a key weapon for Brady with the Falcons going to the SB. Coleman could have some nice games. Not sure he will have enough points when it’s all said and done, will see. It’s a shame he doesn’t have a K or Defense left to give steady producing points.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 50 Points

Updated Odds: 20-1

11th place is Joe Portman aka Plunker with 31.15 points and 8 players left. Right now Connor Cook is currently still the best 11 pick overall, beating out Phins D by .5 points. However that could change with CJ Prosise probably playing this week and/or Demarcus Ayers who has 3 points currently getting another 5+ points. This may be Joe’s only hope at the money, unless of course the Falcons go to the SB and he gets a Julio/Edelman combo along with Pats D and Matt Bryant. That a solid core 4 there and is better than most. It has real lasting power and that is the key in these post season tournaments. Joe is way down in points 81 points behind the leader so he does have some making up to do. Still we like his chances here.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 70 Points

Updated Odds: 7-1

Last place currently, although that doesn’t mean to much at this juncture is Gary Portman with 22.90 points and 9 players left. Gary’s team is all about a KC/Atlanta SB with Matt Ryan, Tyreek Hill, Spencer Ware, and Chiefs D. He also has some other producers left with Mason Crosby and C.J. Prosise who has a good shot at playing against Atlanta. If KC and Atlanta do meet in the Superbowl, Gary will likely come all the way from 12th place to the top of the heap. A Green Bay victory over Dallas would help tremendously.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 70 Points

Updated Odds: 8-1

Well that’s it for now, a little less humour in this article than in previous posts, but that’s only because sometimes the Harpoons is serious business. Can’t always been just fun and games. Everybody have a great weekend, enjoy the games, until next week this is Gary Plonderson saying, Sustain the Winds, Ride through the Fogs!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

King of Harpoons 2017: Post Draft Review

The draft was a success. We have some solid owners in this league, with a lot of experience. This is the 5th Annual King of Harpoons tournament and we hope to keep this going for the next century. The games start tomorrow so let’s get some post draft analysis, brought to you by the one and only Gary Plonderson.

Newcomers to the Harpoons are Jake and Dylan who ended up with Zeke as their 1st pick. Their overall draft was fairly solid throughout finishing with Kelce, Cooper, Manning and Sheppard. Their odds went from 25-1 down to 10-1. They love to claim themselves as the G.O.A.T without actually having any history of success or winning. Kids these days mehhhhhhh.

Another newcomer is Mambaday60 Greg Santos who drafted with his sister and fellow Kinnelon Native Sandra Santos. Their Squad is led by Antonio Brown, Alex Smith and Thomas Rawls with some Cole Beasley sprinkled in. They are hoping Jeff ” My Mom is a Irish Nun” Janis can be the sleeper they need. Santos has been new to the Fantasy Football world over the past 3 years, but since has been spotted studying fantasy notes for hours upon hours at his local Starbucks. The obsession has commenced and he has become a well informed and studious Fantasy Player.

The last newcomer but no stranger to Postseason Play mostly in NCAA is Chase Licata who is filling in for his old college Roomate and Harpoons usual Dennis Severino. Chase comes in with a quiet laid back confidence and likes his chances to take the league down. His team is led by Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham with some other solid picks in Mitchell, Hogan, Witten and Zach Zenner.

Evan Swalling a former champ was not happy with his Golden Tate pick during the draft although two veteran Harpoons owners both complimented him on the selection. He said he wanted Santos. Will see how it works out. His team is led by Big Ben and the White Unicorn or whatever his nickname is.

Ken DeAngelo usually a very solid owner had one of the more disappointing drafts in the Harpoons 5th annual. I asked him after the draft what happened and he said, ” 11th pick happened.” Well no excuses Ken. Another league member stated during the draft “Ken DeAngelo knows what he’s doing right?, why is his team so bad.” We will not reveal that owner other than she is a woman. But that could be any on yous, so it doesn’t reveal much. All jokes in the Cookie Jar, Ken will need Devonta Freeman to get to the SB and the Packers to make a serious run with Jordy and Randall Cobb. He could also get a big two game performance out of Brock ” the 70 Million dollar man” Osweiler. Chances of that happening however are very slim. Good luck to Ken, his Odds have now dropped to 16-1. Maybe Lucky Whitehead will return a few punts and save the day.

Gary Portman the biggest sh*t talker in the league and self proclaimed Champion of everything including most doubles and triples in Softball that should have been Homers, comes in with a pretty well rounded squad. Matt Ryan was his 1st selection and he followed that with a KC theme selecting Spencer Ware and the ever explosive Tyreek Hill. As Gus Johnson says, Tyreek has run from the cop speed. Gary however does not. Gary came through with some nice selections in Aaron Ripowski and then again in the 11th round with C.J. Prosise who could resume practicing next week. Gary is a solid Fantasy Player and is always a threat to take down any league. He will be looking for his 1st Harpoons title.

Zeroooo or Espo has been a Harpoons member since the start if I am not mistaken. He is also a veteran to the FantasyPostseason site from the NCAA pools over the years. He hates this site with a passion and has nightmares at night about it after the draft. Espo always has some of the most Savvy Selections. He always seems to start out strong and finish in the money, but never seems to be able to be crowned upon the hill of majesty. Maybe this year he will be crowned Harpoons champion. His team is very good with Aaron Rodgers, Dez Byrant, Ty Montgomery and C.J. Fedorwicz who should have a nice opening round game.

Joe P doesn’t seem to be able to hit in Fantasy like he can in Softball and Baseball, but maybe I am mistaken. Maybe he proves us wrong here. Joe’s key strategy seemed to be to guarantee himself the 5% by waiting for the last QB and taking Connor Cook. However he will still need to beat out a Andrew Franks, a Defense and of course Jeff “My Mom Likes to make me WhiskeyCakes” Janis. And while Joe aka Plunker may have a solid shot at the 5% he also has a shot to take the entire pool down with picks like Julio Jones, Julian Edelman Pats D and Jay Ajayi.

Bob Portman who always has the worst internet connection in the league, finally had 0 issues this year. Last year in the NBA league Bob’s connection caused a squabble between him and Commish Steve D which led to some question of Bob ever returning to postseason play. However he is back and all is good.
Bob’s sport of skill may be Basketball where he has claimed a few titles, but has yet to claim any Harpoons. Maybe that changes this year and he reps the Portman Bros in 2017. He ended up with Le’Veon Bell as his 1st pick and followed that with Davante Adams, Latavius Murray, Matthew Stafford and Michael Crabtree. We like it, he will just need to put up some points before those Men bow out.

Robby D , Freehole 23, another Harpoons Vet ended up with the 1st pick. A glorious spot indeed. After some reports revealed by Getch Getch hoons from LionEaglenews.com that he was taking Le’Veon Bell, he ended up switching to the secure and pure pick in Tom Brady. After all the the AFC side does look like the New England Invitational. He followed Brady with Coleman, Miller, Sanu and Giants D. Looks like he has Atlanta in the SB. Robbie’s sport like Bob P seems to be Basketball as well, as he has claimed many titles in that sport, so will see if he can rock down a Football title here, Harpoons style.

Frank, Griplip, it’s not a Thoma selected LeGarrette Blount with his 1st pick and he smoothed out his team with Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, and Seattle D. Of course Frank a bigtime Dolphins fan he has 3 Phins in Matt Moore, DeVante Parker and Kenyan Drake. Maybe Miami can go to Pittsburgh and pull the upset. But we do not forsee that happening. No.

Steve DeAngelo returns to the Harpoons looking for his 3rd tile in 5 years. He appeared to have a solid draft and will need a Cowboys/Pats SB with picks like Dak Prescott, Dion Lewis, Gostkowski and Dallas D. He also has O’Dell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, the LSU Boys. If he can get two games from ODB, watch out. Steve was the favorite coming in with Ken and Gary at 4-1 and now is the solo Favorite post draft moving to 3-1.

That’s it for now, expect a follow up report after the Wild Card round with some projected scores and updated odds the divisional round.

Updated Odds:

Steve D 3-1
Joe P 5-1
Robbie D 9-1
Espo 5-1
Kenny D 16-1
Bob P 5-1
Frank 10-1
Gary P 7-1
Greg/Sandra 11-1
Dylan & Jake 8-1
Evan 12-1
Chase 10-1

FantasySavvy 2016: Week 1 Film Review & Analysis

This article is a new addition to our site. In the past we have dabbled with this, but this season we plan on bringing this to you every single week. We will rewatch every single game from the previous week, looking at specific players, schemes, etc, so future predictions can be properly forecasted. This type of film review helped us identify players like Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr. and Dion Lewis weeks prior to them being picked up on waiver wires. Our intention is to give you this superior insight so you can be a step ahead in your leagues. All the stats and advanced stats in the world are great, but there is nothing that can replace reality and the tape reveals this reality.

The first two or three weeks will be complimentary to our readers, but as we go on we will require a weekly or seasonal subscription in order to release this article to you. The weekly investment will be $10 and the Seasonal, which extends until week 16 will be $100. We know this information will truly be beneficial for your fantasy teams, helping to put you in a position to contend for your league’s SuperBowl. Please contact SteveDeAngelo@gmail.com if you are interested in either a weekly or seasonal subscription. A paypal account will be required to process. Going forward this article will be released by Friday Night.

Ok let’s get to the video tape, as the great Ed Reed once said “Trust the Tape”.

*For preview purposes, not all games from the previous week will be covered.

Carolina @ Denver

Biggest thing that stands out here is the performance of C.J. Anderson. The Gary Kubiak running system is back and Anderson has returned to his 2014 form. The run blocking was not only excellent, but Anderson made all the proper cuts and broke tackles looking in top form. With the Denver D so dominate keeping Denver in games and giving the offense a lot of opportunities, Anderson should be in for a big season.

Trevor Simien played smart for most of the game. He took what the defense gave him and ran when he needed to. However, there were a few throws that make you worry about him having some implosions in the future. His lack of arm strength is going to surely cause him to throw some bad interceptions. It will be interesting to see how he progresses and whether or not he can maintain the job throughout the year. Paxton Lynch and his big arm are waiting in the wings. In the meantime, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and even Virgil Green should produce, but don’t expect monster production. However it is good that at least there is something with potential at the QB position replacing Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.

Not much to say about Carolina other than they faced the best defense in the league. This offense will be fine. Kelvin Benjamin of 2016 will be much improved from the Kelvin Benjamin of 2014, which was his rookie season. A few reasons for this. Benjamin hands have improved, his knowledge of the offense has improved and the biggest reason for his future success will be that Cam Newton’s accuracy has improved dramatically. Cam used to overthrow the 6’5 Benjamin, now Cam can hit him on a line. Benjamin should be in for a big time season. Start sending offers while you can.

Trade For: C.J. Anderson, Kelvin Benjamin

Cincinnati @ NYJ

We will start with the Jets, and the two things that stick out most are Quincy Enunwa and the Jets running game. Enunwa not only excelled in Week 1, but he backed it up again on Thursday night with another good performance. The Jets are using him on reverses, screens and he already appears to be a favorite of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Enunwa displays excellent hands and body control and even with Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, I expect Enunwa to have a very productive season. 1000 yards and/or double-digit TD’s is not out of the question.

The other reason the Jets offense has gotten off to such a great start is the addition of Matt Forte. Forte has helped make this Jets offense completely legit. Also the offensive line and run design have been excellent, creating holes for Forte to run through. The usage for Forte thus far is concerning as he is on pace for over 400 carries, but obviously you expect that to start dwindling down at some point. This makes Bilal Powell, who has looked excellent in limited action an excellent addition and a must have a handcuff if you are a Forte owner.

Bengals will be brief this week. A.J. Green looks beastlyyyyyyyy, it will be impossible to trade for him at this point. Green could be at top 5 Fantasy producer this year. Be patient with Gio Bernard. Jeremy Hill had a nice TD run, but his overall usage will continue to hurt his value. Next we will look more into Tyler Boyd.

Trade for: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Matt Forte

Add/Trade: Quincy Enunwa, Bilal Powell

Oakland @ New Orleans

Latavius Murray ran well and look improved, but the Saints defense continues to leak holes and be atrocious overall.  Derek Carr, Crabtree and Amani Cooper will continue their upward swing as the Raiders offense will be legit again in 2016.

Saints rookie WR, Michael Thomas had a good first game and ran some nice routes. Brees, now with Thomas, Snead and a developed Cooks, looks to be in for a monster season. The Raiders defense looked unimpressive, but Drew Brees and Sean Payton have a history of making defenses look silly. Be patient with Mark Ingram, the TD’s will come.

Add: Michael Thomas

Tampa Bay @ ATL

Jameis Winston had some excellent throws to Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins and they finished those throws with some great catches. Winston and Evans have a chance to be the best QB/WR combo in the league this season. After an underwhelming year last season, Evans looks like he’s ready for a true breakout season.

On the Atlanta side, if you are a Devonta Freeman owner like me you have to be concerned. Not because of Freeman losing a step or not being a talented player, but the fact that Tevin Coleman played so much in the passing game. Coleman had 5 catches for 95 yards and spelled Freeman frequently. The tape still shows that Freeman is the better overall runner, but Freeman was such a huge weapon in the passing game for the Falcons last year and it looks like Coleman is going to cut into that production significantly. With all that said, Freeman should have another solid season, but at this point there is no way to expect his reception totals to come close to sniffing last year.

Trade for: Mike Evans

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Eddie Lacy looks to be back in 2014 form. He looks nimble on his feet, explosive and back to breaking tackles. If you banked a rebound season for Lacy this year, it appears you hit the nail on the head. Also James Starks was hardly used in Week 1. Great news for Lacy Owners. Jordy Nelson looked OK, ran some good out routes, and as he continues this year he should only get more comfortable. Also if you didn’t know this already Jared Cook stinks, hopefully you did not draft him. Davante Adams may finally emerge as a solid #3 option for the Pack. Historically Rodgers has utilized and made successful three WR’s for the Pack, so Adams is someone to definitely take seriously this year. Ty Montgomery the 2nd year WR out of Stanford, is another guy to monitor.

T.J. Yeldon looks better thus far in his sophomore season. His running style reminds a bit of two-time NFL rushing leader Edgerrin James. He’s patient, hits holes, and churns yards. Yeldon, in this offense, should be in for a nice year. Ivory is banged up already and has been injury prone in his career, but even with Ivory returning, Yeldon will be the back in the passing game and will still be used around the goaline.

I have no issue with Blake Bortles. A lot of pundits were down on him to start the season, but I don’t see why. He has so much talent and is surrounded by talent, even more so than last year now with a healthy Julius Thomas and Marquis Lee, both of whom Bortles targeted often in week 1. Thomas looked like a favorite target of Bortles and I see this continuing all year. Lee will likely need a Hurns or Robinson injury as it appears he is 5th in the pecking order. But keep an eye on him.

Allen Hurns ran two great routes. One on a stop and go and another on a stick route, it was all Hurns creating the separation. Hurns appears to be a student of the game and I overlooked him, he is more talented than I originally had thought. You do worry if Thomas, Lee and the emergence of Yeldon overall in the passing game will hurt his value a bit more this season, but the talent is surely there.

Trade for: Julius Thomas, T.J. Yeldon, Eddie Lacy.

Cleveland @ Philly

Carson Wentz was impressive to me. Poise, confidence, accuracy, and solid decision-making. He had a couple of excellent throws. One was to Nelson Agohlor who beat Joe Haden off the line of scrimmage for a TD. Wentz threw a perfect ball. This obviously increases the prospects of not only Jordan Matthews, but Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Agholor a first round draft pick last year, did nothing his rookie season, I think that changes this year. Not only does he look better, but he now appears to have a real QB throwing him the ball.

RG3 looked bad, Josh McCown returning will only help Barnridge, Duke Johnson, Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon when he returns. Things are looking up for the Browns offense. McCown looked comfortable in this offense last year and I expect them to get going this week against Baltimore.

Add: Nelson Agholor

Trade for: Gary Barnridge, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz

Minnesota @ Tennessee

The Titans stacked the box against the Vikings and the Vikings weren’t very creative with how they got Adrian Peterson the ball causing Peterson to have a sub par game. Peterson looked fine as a runner, he just literally had nowhere to run. Be patient, Sam Bradford should help open things up at a bit. Stefon Diggs looked quick, running a bunch of out routes and aggressively working back to the ball. Shaun Hill and him had good chemistry, it will be interesting to see how he and Bradford work together, but Diggs looked solid.

Tajae Sharpe looks as good as advertised. He ran some nice slant routes, showed good burst and hands. He looks like he will be a top target of Marcus Mariota this year. Derrick Henry looked good in the passing game. He caught one screen pass where he crossed the field, stiffed armed Vikings LB Chad Greenway to the ground and broke a tackle, showing off his explosion and power. He was Ok in the running game. The Vikings shot gaps, but did take Henry down by shooting at his legs. I think Henry will adjust to that going forward as he has to realize that opponents will go low at his 6’3 frame. Henry is only going to improve. DeMarco Murray ran with power and looked good. The Titans ran some creative plays to get Murray open in the passing game and open lanes for him in the running game. The Titans should be a solid offense this year.

Add: Tajae Sharpe

Trade for: Derrick Henry

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Dennis Pitta is back. Flacco looked to him often and the past chemistry showed. Look for Pitta to be a solid TE this year. Neither Justin Forsett nor Terrance West were that impressive in the running game. Rookie Kenneth Dixon could easily take this job in a few weeks. Mike Wallace looks reborn in Baltimore. His speed was back on display as the Ravens used him on screens, reverses and down the field. Unlike Tannehill, Flacco has the arm to get Wallace the ball. He’s my bet to lead the Ravens in receiving this season. Breshard Perriman made a great catch early in the game and he is definitely a guy to monitor.  Steve Smith looked a bit slower and not as explosive as usual, remember when Kobe Bryant came back from his Achilles injury, he was never the same.

This is more of a take of the Jets game from Thursday, but Sammy Watkins is not healthy right now. It’s clear to see. The Bills would be smart to let the young man rest for a week or 2 before bringing him back. He does have 10 days to recover , so let’s see what the reports are next week about his surgically repaired foot.

San Diego @ Kansas City

Melvin Gordon looks much improved, at least after Week 1. He is running with more power, more decisiveness and actually broke some tackles and moved piles. These are things he rarely did last year. Danny Woodhead continues to look excellent and with Keenan Allen out again, should be PPR gold again in 2016. Allen’s replacement Tyrell Williams the 6’4 4.4 40 yard Dash prospect looks like has some potential. Rivers has historically favored big WR’s, (Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd) and Rivers likes to toss it up to these big guys. Even before Allen went out, the Chargers were using Williams as he had a 38 yard catch early in the 1st quarter. The guy runs like a deer and with his combination of size and speed he is someone to take seriously.

Spencer Ware had holes to run through, but he ran hard and broke some tackles. He was used extensively in the passing game by Captain Checkdown Alex Smith and that should only continue with Jamaal Charles out. Charcandrick West played a lot of snaps, but was rarely used. It may take Charles a good 6 weeks to get fully up and running so Ware should have continued value for some time.

Add: Tyrell Williams

Trade for: Danny Woodhead, Melvin Gordon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FantasySavvy 2016: Week 1 Player Rankings

QB’s

  1. Blake Bortles vs GB
  2. Russell Wilson @ MIA
  3. Aaron Rodgers @ JAC
  4. Derek Carr @ NO
  5. Drew Brees vs OAK
  6. Jameis Winston @ ATL
  7. Kirk Cousins vs PIT
  8. Ben Roethlisberger @ Was
  9. Eli Manning @ DAL
  10. Dak Prescott vs NYG
  11. Carson Palmer vs NE
  12. Tyrod Taylor @ BAL
  13. Matthew Stafford @ IND
  14. Joe Flacco vs BUF
  15. Phillip Rivers @ KC
  16. Matt Ryan vs TB
  17. Alex Smith vs SD
  18. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs CIN
  19. Brock Osweiler vs CHI
  20. Jay Cutler @ HOU
  21. Andy Dalton @ NYJ
  22. RG3 @ Philly
  23. Ryan Tannehill @ SEA
  24. Jimmy Garropolo @ ARZ
  25. Carson Wentz vs CLE
  26. Case Keenum @ SF
  27. Blaine Gabbert vs LAR
  28. Shaun Hill @ TEN

RB’s

  1. David Johnson vs NE
  2. Todd Gurley @ SF
  3. Devonta Freeman vs TB
  4. Doug Martin @ ATL
  5. Lamar Miller vs CHI
  6. Mark Ingram vs Oak
  7. DeAngelo Williams @ WAS
  8. Eddie Lacy @ JAC
  9. LeSean McCoy @ BAL
  10. Ezekiel Elliot vs NYG
  11. Adrian Peterson @ TEN
  12. Latavius Murray @ NO
  13. Ryan Mathews vs CLE
  14. Derrick Henry vs MIN
  15. Frank Gore vs DET
  16. Spencer Ware vs SD
  17. T.J. Yeldon vs GB
  18. Giovani Bernard @ NYJ
  19. Carlos Hyde vs LAR
  20. Matt Forte vs CIN
  21. Danny Woodhead @ KC
  22. DeMarco Murray vs MIN
  23. Rob Kelley vs PIT
  24. Duke Johnson @ PHI
  25. Jeremy Langford @ HOU
  26. James White @ ARZ
  27. Arian Foster @ SEA
  28. Justin Forsett vs BUF
  29. Rashad Jennings @ DAL
  30. Chris Ivory vs GB
  31. Charles Sims @ ATL
  32. Bilal Powell vs CIN
  33. Ameer Abdullah @ IND
  34. Theo Riddick @ IND
  35. Matt Jones vs PIT
  36. Melvin Gordon @ KC
  37. Thomas Rawls vs MIA
  38. Christine Michael vs MIA
  39. Darren Sproles vs CLE
  40. James Starks @ JAC
  41. Alfred Morris vs NYG
  42. Jeremy Hill vs NYJ
  43. LeGarrette Blount @ARZ
  44. Isaiah Crowell @ PHI
  45. Shaun Draughn vs LAR
  46. DeAndre Washington @ NO
  47. Charcandrick West vs SD
  48. Tevin Coleman vs TB
  49. Chris Thompson vs PIT
  50. Shane Vereen @ DAL

WR’s

  1. Antonio Brown @ WAS
  2. Allen Robinson vs GB
  3. Odell Beckham @ DAL
  4. Julio Jones vs TB
  5. Sammy Watkins @ BAL
  6. Mike Evans @ ATL
  7. DeAndre Hopkins vs CHI
  8. Dez Bryant vs NYG
  9. Brandon Marshall vs CIN
  10. T,Y, Hilton vs DET
  11. Brandin Cooks vs OAK
  12. Randall Cobb @ JAC
  13. A.J. Green @ NYJ
  14. Doug Baldwin vs MIA
  15. Michael Crabtree @ NO
  16. Amari Cooper @ NO
  17. Alshon Jeffrey @ HOU
  18. Keenan Allen @ KC
  19. Golden Tate @ IND
  20. Allen Hurns vs GB
  21. Jeremy Maclin vs SD
  22. DeSean Jackson vs PIT
  23. Terrelle Pryor vs PHI
  24. Jarvis Landry @ SEA
  25. Larry Fitzgerald vs NE
  26. Eric Decker vs CIN
  27. Julian Edelman @ AZ
  28. Willie Snead vs OAK
  29. Michael Floyd vs NE
  30. Marvin Jones vs IND
  31. Donte Moncrief vs DET
  32. Tyler Lockett vs MIA
  33. Jordan Matthews vs CLE
  34. Sammie Coates @ WAS
  35. John Brown vs NE
  36. Travis Benjamin @ KC
  37. Tajae Sharpe vs MIN
  38. Tavon Austin @ SF
  39. Vincent Jackson @ ATL
  40. Kamar Aiken vs BUF
  41. Torrey Smith vs LAR
  42. Kenny Stills @ SEA
  43. Stefon Diggs @ TEN
  44. Rishard Matthews vs MIN
  45. Phillip Dorsett vs DET
  46. Kevin White @ HOU
  47. Eli Rogers @ WAS
  48. Will Fuller vs CHI
  49. Sterling Sheppard vs DAL
  50. Victor Cruz vs DAL
  51. Corey Coleman @ PHI
  52. Steve Smith Sr. vs BUF
  53. Mike Wallace vs BUF
  54. Michael Thomas vs OAK
  55. Jamison Crowder vs PIT
  56. Tyler Boyd @ NYJ
  57. Dorial Green-Beckham vs CLE
  58. Robert Woods @ BAL
  59. Chris Hogan @ AZ
  60. Danny Amendola @ AZ

TE’s

  1. Jordan Reed vs PIT
  2. Delanie Walker vs MIN
  3. Travis Kelce vs SD
  4. Jason Witten vs NYG
  5. Antonio Gates @ KC
  6. Jesse James @ WAS
  7. Dwyane Allen vs DET
  8. Gary Barnidge @ PHI
  9. Zach Ertz vs CLE
  10. Jared Cook @ JAC
  11. Coby Fleener vs OAK
  12. Zach Miller @ HOU
  13. Julius Thomas vs GB
  14. Martellus Bennett @ AZ
  15. Jacob Tamme vs TB
  16. Eric Ebron @ IND
  17. Clive Walford @ NO
  18. Charles Clay @ BAL
  19. Vance McDonald vs LAR
  20. Kyle Rudolph @ TEN
  21. Luke Wilson vs MIA
  22. Jimmy Graham vs MIA
  23. Cameron Brate @ TB
  24. Crockett Gilmore vs BUF
  25. A.J. Derby @ AZ

 

FantasySavvy 2016: TE Tiers

Reed and Olsen join Gronk in the 1st Tier because of Gronk’s injury history. Delanie will keep it up and Kelce should only continue to get better. Ertz came on last year and I think he continues the production.

People are underrating Jason Witten, even with the Romo news, I like Witten again this year. Barnridge is talented but will Griffin get him the ball? Jessie James looks like the new Heath Miller, big target and Ben targeted him often in yesterdays preseason game.

The 4th Tier all consists of guys who are big question marks with big upside.

Watch out for Pats TE A.J. Derby, he’s talented and I think he produces at some point this year.

Does Dennis Pitta return this season? Stay tuned.

1st Tier

Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen

2nd Tier

Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce,

3rd Tier

Zach Ertz, Antonio Gates, Gary Barnridge, Jessie James, Jason Witten.

4th Tier

Tyler Eifert, Martellus Bennett, Jimmy Graham, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen

5th Tier

Austin Seferian Jenkins, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Will Tye, A.J. Derby, Julius Thomas

6th Tier

Charles Clay, Jace Amaro, Virgil Green, Zach Miller, Jordan Cameron

7th Tier

Dennis Pitta, Richard Rodgers, Clive Walford, Vance McDonald

FantasySavvy 2016: WR Tiers

Pretty much any of these WR’s in the first two tiers are ultra safe. Antonio Brown is pretty much the overall conensus #1 WR in PPR leagues. Julio and Beckham will be beasts almost every week. I favor Beckham a bit more because of Matt Ryan. The 3rd  & 4th tier are solid as well, with Mike Evans and Watkins having tremendous upside. But you could argue after the 4th tier questions start to arise. Thomas regressing? Can Baldwin keep up that TD production? Jeffrey stay healthy? Cobb rebound? Jordy healthy in his return?

RG3 or McCown whoever emerges as the QB when Gordon returns can just toss the ball up to that man and he will shine, we have seen it in the past and this preseason. Gordon will be a value pick.

I like the prospects of 2nd year WR’s Phillip Dorsett, Tyler Lockett, Kevin White and Sammie Coates. Quite even possibly Breshard Perriman if he can get back healthy soon. I also like Travis Benjamin’s situation in San Diego

My Favorite rookies are Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, Will Fuller and Sterling Sheppard.

1st Tier

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr.

2nd Tier

DeAndre Hokpins, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson

3rd Tier

Brandon Marshall, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans

4th Tier

Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen,  Jarvis Landry

5th Tier

Doug Baldwin, Demaryius Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffrey, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman

6th Tier

Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree

7th Tier

Tyler Lockett, DeSean Jackson, Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Josh Gordon, Allen Hurns,

Tier 8

John Brown, Tavon Austin, Steve Smith, Jordan Matthews, Travis Benjamin, Donte Moncrief

Tier 9 

Marvin Jones, Phillip Dorsett, Kevin White, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, Devin Funchess, Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Kamar Aiken, Vincent Jackson, Chris Hogan, Mike Wallace, Chris Conley, Ted Ginn Jr

Tier 10

Sammie Coates, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Boyd, Tajae Sharpe, Sterling Sheppard, Victor Cruz, Wil Fuller, Dorial Green-Beckham, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Mohamed Sanu, Anquan Boldin, Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, Pierre Garcon, Marquise Lee, Kendall Wright, Malcolm Mitchell, Nelson Agholor

Tier 11

Markus Wheaton, Eli Rogers, Torrey Smith, Bruce Ellington, Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, Jaelen Strong, Charles Johnson, Jeff Janis, Davante Adams, Breshard Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Ty Montgomery, Quinton Patton, Robert Woods, Paul Richardson

Tier 12

Kenny Britt, Brandon LaFell, Jermaine Kearse, Brian Quick, Devin Smith, Danny Amendola, Andrew Hawkins, Seth Roberts, Aaron Dobson