Trying to assess on how a game will project out and what the script will most likely be should always be a weekly thought process. Game Script effects the players you want to start from the QB all the way to the Kicker and Defense. Matchups, injuries, weather all give us a peek of what we can expect in a particular game. We all may have a pretty good idea based on the information that is provided, but it’s good to put it on paper, rehash it and review before setting our lineups, whether in Seasonal or DFS. Here are just a few games for this week.
*Be sure to check the weather reports tomorrow, as weather could be a major factor in multiple games.
Minnesota @ GB
Minnesota’s secondary is banged up, as they are missing multiple guys. The winds will be 10-15 MPH sustained during this game, so not as bad as initially projected. This game starts at 4 and the winds look to be dying down by that point. At this point, the Wind does not seem like it will be a factor and there is no rain. Jaire Alexander has been taking out top WR’s all year, including Ridley, Evans and Will Fuller in his last three. Will it be Theilen or Jefferson this week or will he split coverage on both?.One of these guys likely suffers, most likely Theilen. Dalvin Cook is coming back from a groin injury and it’s likely that we still see Mattison and maybe even Mike Boone. This script looks like this. Rodgers destroying this Vikings D with a multitude of Comebacks, Slants, Double Moves, back shoulders to Adams, and a lot of Jamal Williams, perhaps A.J. Dillon although we did not see that last week. The Packers may get out to a big lead here, which means Cousins could be throwing a lot, but at the same time, you may have some wind and Jaire Alexander taking out one of his top targets. Maybe Irv Smith has a decent game here, but, I don’t trust Cousins. Cook could catch a lot of dump offs and will likely have a decent fantasy day, his upside is just limited here. Rodgers should have a decent day at the office, but I don’t see a huge day because this game could be a blowout. Adams will get a ton of targets once again and should have a big day, even if they don’t use him as much in the second half. Jamal Williams should continue to see a lot of work, have a very productive day and we may see A.J. Dillon mix in later. The Vikings have been a mess all year and the Packers are playing very solid football, outside of their loss to the Bucs two weeks ago.
Saints @ Bears
This game is similar to the Green Bay game as it starts late (4pm Slot), will have some wind risk, but no precipitation. As of now it looks like it will be a bit windier than the Green Bay with 15-20 MPH, but getting weaker as the game goes on. The wind might not be a issue. The Biggest issue for Brees is he’s without Thomas, Sanders and Callaway (who had a solid game last week) and is left with some lackluster options against a very sound Bears Defense and secondary. How many targets for Kamara this week? Some Wind issues, no main WR’s, Bears D, maybe 10? Bears could contain his yards however, so his upside certainly could be limited. This could just be a flat game all around from the Saints. On the other side, Nick Foles balls already sail, with any sort of wind around 15-20mph or worse, they may end up hitting a ballboy on the sideline. That hot date cancelled! Allen Robinson was cleared to play after suffering a concussion last week and that helps, but Foles continues to miss WR’s and has not looked good at all. Mooney is a athletic speedster who runs solid routes and Foles can’t hit him. This might be a very ugly game to watch and it may not hit 40 points. PASS all around for me. In DFS, Kamara is going to be heavily owned, but I think I am going to pass because of the price and matchup, despite the fact he may get 10 targets and 10-15 carries. The Bears could pull the upset here, remember they beat the Bucs a few weeks ago, 20-19.
Las Vegas @ Cleveland
This game appears to have the worst weather this week with 20-30 MPH sustained winds and 100% precipitation. Some people have noted that the Browns stadium was built very high, so it blocks a lot of the winds, so it’s possible the wind does not play as much of a factor as people are expecting. However, the game is also going to be wet. Baker and Carr both have good matchups here, but I don’t trust either of these QB’s enough to bank on them with the weather risk. I still feel good about Kareem Hunt, who should get a ton of work, Harrison Bryant and possibly Jarvis Landry and/or Rashad Higgins, but again this passing game could flop altogether. On the other side, Josh Jacobs has not been breaking any big runs as his YPC sits under 4.0. This matchups is not great, but he is going to get a ton of work in this game, but his upside is limited. Ruggs on a normal weather day, I would love, but I don’t trust Carr throwing deep in winds and rain. If Bryan Edwards plays he could be a very sneaky DFS play, catching a lot of shorter routes and I doubt anyone will use him. The only Raider Receiver I would feel confident in is Darren Waller. This games total dropped from 55 down to 48, but maybe it drops more come Sunday morning. This game still could be high scoring because of the crap secondaries on both sides and possibility of the Browns stadium blocking the winds, but I am betting against it. I see a 24-21 game, nothing high powered. I think there is still good value on the under.
Jets @ KC
KC could just really look to have a lot of fun in this one, throwing multiple bombs early and then just closing this game out in the 2nd half with a lot of running. Mahomes could be out of the game by the end of the 3rd Quarter or early 4th. Before that happens, he may have 5 TD’s. Hill, Hardman, Robinson, Kelce all could smash. Helaire and Bell will likely both smash. Bell Revenge game right? I’m sure Reid will want him to score and give him a lot of looks in this one. On the other side, Darnold may throw 30+ times, so Denzel Mims and maybe even Braxton Berrios look like decent plays. I still wouldn’t use Darnold even in DFS/TWOQB/SUPERFLEX as he’s likely going to get sacked a ton, will miss a ton of throws with some INT’s. KC D bomb play, lots of opportunity. KC likely wins by 24+ points.
TEN @ CINCY
This game also has weather concerns, as it looks like we will see 15-20 MPH sustained winds. As long as it’s not tipping into the 20-25 range, I am not going to be overly concerned. Burrow is still going to take what the defense gives him, throw a lot of short routes and use his legs when needed. Tannehill will continue to use Play Action and make accurate throws. The Bengals secondary is very very bad. The Titans D gets slot CB Adoree Jackson back this week, and the Bengals O line is depleted by Injury (3 guys out this week, 2 of the best) so it’s possible the Bengals pass game could struggle some. I still think Burrow, Boyd, Higgins, Green are going to cause damage against the Titans despite that. I trust Joey B. I think these teams will trade TD’s and this will be a high scoring game. This is a good game to stack in DFS. Tannehill, Corey Davis, AJ Brown, Jonnu, and even Adam Humphries can be a slide (pivot) move. Henry should be in all your lineups. He may run for 200, if not he will probably go for a 100 and find the endzone at least once. Great upside here. Higgins, Boyd, Green all should be used. Not crazy about GIO’s upside, he needed that late TD last week to be fantasy relevant, despite the usage. Still, he will get a lot of work again. Dial up these guys, lots of points here. Total dropped from 55 to 51, I think we may see 60.
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE
Defensive battle right? A little weather also, some rain, but looks spotty and winds 10-15 MPH. I don’t think it will be much of an issue. This game can go two ways, either a defensive, physical, grueling battle (which is most likely based on past games and defenses) or these two offenses click and we get a shootout. Total dropped from 49 to 46.5, so sharps are expecting a grinder game for the most part. In DFS, this game will likely not be a stack used by many, so it provides with a great Contrarian opportunity. Lamar, Brown, Edwards, Ben, Connor, Diontae, JuJu, Clay, even Ebron. This game could pay dividends if it ends up being a shootout and you stack it in DFS. That is not likely but again, that’s why it could be brilliant, because there is so much offensive talent in this game. Maybe Devin Duvernay and J.K. Dobbins get much more prominent roles coming off the bye, maybe the Steelers shift back towards Clayppool this week after feeding JuJu and Diontae last week. All things to think about and all possibilities as you set your lineups. The Seattle/49ers game will be the most popular stack this week, this is a slide off that.
Ohter decent slides are DET/IND and DEN/LAC. Stafford, Galladay, maybe T.Y. finally pops off? He’s on that turf. I still love Trey Burton, roll him regardless. Denver, Tim Patrick OUT? Hamler Time? Juedy Breakout? Mike Will? More Jalen Guyton? Keenan Allen and Devante Adams might be the two most consistent WR’s the ROY.
All the best this week, Thanks for reading, Follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy.