FantasySavvy 2019: Week 1 Preview

Football is back. FantasySavvy is back. Life, (Work, Kids) have got in the way the past couple seasons, but it is my goal to get back to consistency this year and produce more content. Weekly Previews, Rankings, Radio Show, DFS, Film Review, NFL Picks are some things you can look forward to in 2019.

This season I drafted 11 teams, not counting two Best Ball teams, one being the Best Ball Championship hosted by Draft.com. I pretty much have every format covered at this point I think. 2 QB IDP Keeper league, SuperFlex being able to start two QB’s, A Dynasty league, another Redraft IDP league, Two Keeper Auction leagues, another Keeper Draft league and a few regular Redrafts. One 16 team league, a Bunch of 12’s and one Ten. All PPR, and all start at least one Flex except one. One of the leagues is an Expert League (Triple Crown) with Industry Guys like Jamey Eisenberg, Brad Evans, Dan Dobish, Bob Lung, and others. So I got it all covered, except a big money High Stakes league, I have played these in the past, but not in a few years, I will look to get back into seriously again within the next couple years.

Yahoo and CBS didn’t give me much respect in my drafts, but that’s because in a few I didn’t even draft a Kicker or a Defense and I took a lot of Rookies. I always do that. I am an upside chaser. I am confident with my draft style and I know I will be in good shape when the Playoffs near. My goal this year is to win all of my leagues, lol, but I will be happy with 4 or 5. I will be posting my updated record on my twitter every week @FantasySavvy. Please follow along and drop any questions you have there, or shoot me an email at SteveDeAngelo@gmail.com. This season marks my 22nd year playing Fantasy Football and I am trying everything I can to make it my best one yet. Thanks for following over the years, if you are new, welcome. I will try to provide you as much value as I can. I am also looking for contributors if interested shoot me an email or DM on twitter.

This week will be a limited version of my Weekly previews, but will give you an idea of what to expect going forward. Next week I will look to break down every game.

For Week 1 this will be sort of an introduction to my full season thoughts on certain guys in addition to my advice for this week. There will be also some DFS, Survivor advice and Picks mixed in, It’s a one stop shop!!! (Jettle Toopers from 3Am Infomercial Voice)

1PM 

Titans at Browns (Cle -5.5, O/U 45.5) *Weather 69 Degrees and Cloudy

Baker vs the Titans at home, Beckham, Landry, Njoku, Chubby. Sounds great, if you want to roll with him as your starter this week, go hed. Baker had an impressive rookie season, but he still has a lot to prove, we can’t crown him just yet, although he showed out a ton last year.

I don’t have any stock of Beckham this year, probably the first year since he’s been in the league that I don’t. His Rookie year I think I owned him in half my leagues, and almost every year after that, but not this year. He’s not going to get all the looks he got in NY being the man guy. His price was just a bit too high for me and I thought there was better values. Now he’s got Landry, NJoku, Baker likes Higgins and also Chubb is going to be a big part of the offense. Baker likes to spread the ball around. How is O’Dell going to deal with that? We shall see, but no doubt Odell is still one of the best in the league and there is no reason he shouldn’t have a fine season, just don’t expect 100+ catches and I am not even sure if he hits double digit TD’s. I see around 85 catches 1,000 yards and 8 or 9 TD’s. A good season but nothing like what we’ve seen in the past.

Landry stay away, Higgins eh. NJoku I like and with the lack of Tight Ends he’s worth starting even though he was absent all preseason. Chubb is a no brainer obviously. Cle D isn’t a bad streamer vs Mariota and his noodle arm. Browns Kicker whoever it is (Justin Siebert, had to look that up) is a decent start also, very unlikely Titans will get out to a big lead. Either this game will be close or the Browns will control it. Or maybe your league banned Kickers and Defenses like a few of mine did this year. I will try to stop talking about Kickers and Defenses.

Not sure what I think of Dontrell Hilliard but he is Chubb’s backup in a GOOD O so def want to keep an eye on him and see if he’s worth adding as Chubb’s handcuff.  There is talk he can be the new Duke Johnson and Hilliard does look versatile with ability. Just keep in mind, very few backups prove worthy of rostering. Another guy to keep an eye on is Tywan Taylor who was a touted pick with the Titans. Someone to monitor for sure. Always stay ahead of the pack and be weeks ahead of you opponents on the wire. Don’t keep bums, be patient with talent, but bums cut! Add talent if it’s there!

Mariota is simply hurting this offense and team. He’s inconsistent, fragile and doesn’t have a great arm. Titans need to find a replacement, let’s hope they start looking next year. Mariota can make plays and can look good at times, but he is just simply not cut out to be an Elite QB in this league. He’s should not be your starting QB even in a two QB league, but maybe that can change, this arguably is the most talented surrounding cast he’s had with the addition of Brown, Humphries and Delanie returning.

What will Derrick Henry do this year. We will see the Henry we have seen at the end of the year the last two seasons or the one we saw early in the season. Here is what I believe is what happened with Henry. First he was stuck behind DeMarco Murray, his rookie year fine, but after that he needed to be the lead guy and it didn’t really happen until Murray’s wheels fell off.  Should have happened way sooner. Then last year Dion Lewis was taking too many snaps from Henry. Finally, when Henry got a solid chunk of carries, that is when he started to fly. Henry is an old school RB, he needs 20+ carries a game. He can handle it, the guy is a freak, he is that King Orc from Lord of the Rings.  So let’s hope that finally happens this year. Dion Lewis can mix in here and there, but Orc needs 20 carries or at least 20 touches, get him involved in the passing game too. Get him out in space vs DB’s, and Truck Stick, Stiff Arm. Henry should be the centerpiece of this offense. The Titans D is fairly decent so they should prevent the Titans from playing behind a lot. Mariota is just good enough where He doesn’t hurt Henry’s value to a dangerous level.  You are using him this week and every week until further notice. He will prove to be a nice value this season from his ADP.

Corey Davis like his talent, but again, Mariota hurts him. Does it help that Delanie is back? A.J Brown added to the mix? Maybe, but until I see it I can’t believe it. I bought the bait on Davis last year and I lost because Mariota just isn’t very good. Like A.J Brown’s talent, size but we need to see it happen. Do not use him, but monitor very closely. He’s out there in a lot of leagues. Delanie was always Mariota’s guy but he’s 35 years old now and coming back from a dislocated and fractured ankle. I would use him though based on the lack of depth at the TE position. He should be relatively solid overall this year.

Tajae Sharpe, Adam Humphries ehbut maybe Humphries can make some noise this year. Jonnu Smith is a guy to watch, talent is there, but raw and behind Delanie, would need an injury to be a factor.

I see a close game here, Browns are historically terrible in home openers, but this is a new era with Baker. I would take the points with the Titans though, O/U no idea. Neither is a good survivor pick. Don’t see any strong DFS plays here outside of maybe using Njoku or Delanie as a cheap TE option. Corey Davis isn’t too expensive ($4,900) DK and Humphries could be sneaky. Wouldn’t blame you if you used Henry, I just want to give him a week or two since he missed a lot of camp. Maybe Dion is a value this week because of that and gets a bit more burn. Lol here we go again! Nah week 2 Henry 20 carries! Let’s go Vrabel!! Prediction: Titans 24 Browns 20. 

Ravens @ Dolphins (Bal -6.5 O/U 39.5) *94 Sunny and HOT! Click that haa. I was recently in FLA right before Hurricane Dorian, by the Ocean you’re Ok, but a little inland sweat your cayoons off in the Summer.

Give Kenyan Drake the Football. I should just end this preview there, but that’s all I will say about Drake, guy is great, give him the Ball. Start him! What a value on DK $4,700, prob because Kalen Ballage will get 16 touches to Drake’s 4. LOL. GIVE HIM THE BALL!!!!! Only reason I don’t own Drake everywhere again this year is because I don’t trust the Dolphins.

Ryan Fitz is good for the 1st few games of the year again right? He literally does it every year before turning into a pumpkin. Will Parker finally bloom this season? I have my doubts. Preston Williams is getting a ton of hype, he did make some ridic catches in the preseason and Jakeem Grant is ultra explosive. Albert Wilson is also decent. I would say Wilson is prob the safest bet, but I would wait n see with this Dolphins squad, but I have a feeling with Fitz, some of these WR’s are going to show out hard and people are going to be running to the Wire. Jakeem Grant is interesting. Give Drake the ball. Kallen Ballage I’m good on, Pass everywhere. Nick O’Leary, Geisecki? Wait n See, no idea at this point. I like the Dolphins with the Points here. I wouldn’t blame you for using Fitz in DFS or in a TWO QB league based on his past early season history. Keep an eye on Myles Gaskin, could be a deep sleeper and probably will take Drake’s Job and get 20 carries to Drakes 2. But seriously, Gaskin has potential.

Lamar Jackson has certainly exceeded my expectations thus far. He still has a ton to prove, but he has fit in this offense so far. Ravens are playing good D and have a strong run game and that should only improve this season with the additions of Mark Ingram and Justice Hill. This keeps Jackson safe despite his maturing throwing. Lamar is an every week Fantasy Starter because of his legs and insane athletic ability. I like using him this week in DFS in what could prove to be a high scoring game.

I really love what the Ravens have done with this offense, tons of young talent everywhere. Jackson, Hill, Edwards, Hollywood Brown, Boykin. Speaking of Boykin, I am currently in awe of him. I own him almost every league I am in. He easily could the Ravens #1 WR this year, no doubt he’s there most talented. The question is can Jackson get him the ball, we can’t expect that much this year, but he may come on as the season goes, great for keeper or dynasty and a bigtime value in DFS. Snead and Ingram are the Veterans on the offense. Snead should have some solid weeks, but they will be very tough to predict regardless of matchup. Ingram should get all the GL carries, how much will Hill and Edwards be mixed in, who knows, but I am excited to see what Hill can do, he’s got some ridiculous runs on his tape. This week I think you can safely trust Ingram, Hill is a risky play albeit with good upside. A lot of Hype surrounding Mark Edwards this preseason and I like his talent, but it’s still a wait n see. This is still a run heavy offense and Jackson still is maturing as a thrower, so really Ingram and Jackson are the only guys you can truly feel good about in Week 1. Ravens D could buck the trend and embarass Fitz this week and Justin Tucker is always a good play. No more Kicker talk.

I think if Jackson ever got hurt or really struggles bad, McCsorley should be the guy, I like the way he looked in the preseason. You never know that could bump the passing game and the entire offense. Him and Boykin were connecting in the preseason. Hayden Hurst is still a name to monitor for now, Chris Moore eh.

Like I stated earlier, I like the Dolphins with the points at home. I will stick with the FitzMagic early season Trend. I also will take the over in this game. There could be a decent amount of Raven picks in Survivor and this could be an upset. It could also be a Ravens blowout. All depends on Fitz. Prediction Ravens 23 Phins 20.

Falcons @ Vikings (Vikings -4, O/U 47) Dome, Did they clean the A/C Vents this offseason? Anybody got an angle on that? Whose got Dust Allergies? I do, Adrenaline takes over, VOID. Blow some snot rockets on the field, that’s all. 

Captain Kirk, Kirk Cousins had a strong start to the season last year, but faded down the stretch and showed a lot of inconsistency. But Cousins still has all the same talent around him, with Dalvin Cook even healthier this season. I expect to see basically the same numbers we saw last year from Kirk. I can see 250-300 yds and 2-3 TD’s from him in this game.

Thielen, Diggs every week starters. Thielen is a master of route running, Diggs has gotten better and better every season and is an explosive player. I own Dalvin Cook in more then 50% of my leagues, he’s the Vikes workhorse back who can do it all. He stays healthy and he will put bigtime #’s. I think Mike Boone is worth adding as a handcuff if you have enough roster space, I have yet to do it on any of my rosters as of yet however. That may change soon. I think Boone has the advantage over the Rookie Mattison. Like what I’ve seen out of Bama Rookie Irv Smith. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him make an early impact for the Vikes. $2,700 on DK this week for Smith. Kyle Rudolph is big and slow, pass on him everywhere.

Some people been saying Chad Beebe is going to hurt Thielen’s production, I don’t see that. Will Beebe be a worthy flex this year? Doubt it, I see Cole Beasley type production when we was with the Cowboys. In other words, nothing special. I rather take a shot on Swerve Irv Smith.

Matt Ryan had a career year three years ago, then fell off pretty significantly two years ago before bouncing back in a strong way last year. I think we see similar production to what we saw last year. His weapons tremendous with Julio, Ridley and Sanu. Austin Hooper had a nice season last year as well and now Devonta Freeman returns and seems to be over his knee issues of the past.

Julio will do Julio, can he keep them TD’s up now? No reason why he can’t. How much will Calvin Ridley improve on his rookie season where he had 64 catches, 821 yards and 10 TD’s. There is good chance those TD numbers dip, but the receptions and yards could rise. Either way Ridley should have a very good season and improve on last year. Sanu is going to give you good production overall, but will be inconsistent week to week. Austin Hooper will likely repeat last years production. Vikings D is still one of the better units in the NFL, so I am not crazy about Freeman and Ryan this week. Julio of course, but the price is a lot and there are better options this week. Ridley and Sanu could be sneaky plays.  We’ve seen Ito Smith, he’s just Ok. Quadree Allison is and unknown but a guy to monitor.
I will def take the Falcons with the points as they could easily win this game outright. The O/U I will pass on. Neither is a strong survivor selection obviously.  Prediction: Vikings 24, Falcons 20

Bills @ Jets (Jets -2.5, O/U 41) *75 and Sunny

Josh Allen finished as the highest scoring Fantasy QB the last five weeks of the season last year, but he is still getting little respect. That is because the masses bashed and clowned this guy and now they don’t want to admit he can actually play. How many QB’s have his size, speed, are able to stiff arm LB’s and chuck the ball as far as he can. Not many and Allen is getting smarter as a QB. I own him in every league except a few, my teams will sink or sail with Allen. Yes, I am a believer. The Bills added John Brown and Cole Beasley to help Allen, not huge upgrades but they should certainly help, especially Brown who was also being disrespected in drafts.

The RB situation got interesting with the release of LeSean McCoy. Left is the ageless wonder Frank Gore, T.J Yeldon and Rookie Devin Singletary. You can expect a mix of all three in the early going, Singletary can certainly earn a lot more playing time with good performances. He has a lot of upside, but has a lot to prove and show before he gets a heavy load. Can’t trust any of these backs this week. John Brown I wouldn’t mind using at all this week. His DK price is just $4,300, which is great value. Based on the way people drafted this year, Allen and Brown will most likely be left off most DFS lineups this week. I will roll both in some lineups. Zay Jones and Robert Foster are passes for now, but Foster is the one I would keep my eye one, even if reports were he barely made the team, not sure how, he looked like their best WR last year. Zay Jones drops way too many passes. Cole Beasley will likely continue to do what he did in Dallas, which was nothing of much note, not for fantasy purposes anyway. Tight Ends on this team, Kroft (Doubtful this week), Rookie Dawson Knox and Lee Smith, who knows you will emerge or if anyone even does.

The Jets can be a very good offense this season, it all comes down to Sam Darnold. Darnold had an up and down rookie season, but finished the year well. He also looked very solid in the preseason. Darnold’s issue historically is turnovers but he seems to be playing smart, taking what the defense is giving him and making some nice throws. I still have some doubts but things are trending up currently. He is surrounded by a very good cast with Bell, Robby Anderson, Enunwa, Jamison Crowder and Chris Herndon, although Herndon is suspended for the first four games of the year.

Robby Anderson has grown as a WR, but has tough matchups to start the year, it may not matter however, as he may have enough ability to beat those matchups. Crowder, Enunwa should put up some nice games and both have good upside depending on how much Darnold grows as a QB. I am passing on all Jets this week including Bell. Bell should get a big workload, but I still want to see what he looks like in this Jets offense and after taking a year off. I have 0 shares of Bell.

I am using Allen and John Brown as values in DFS and I want to wait and see on the rest. Neither is a strong survivor pick and I will pass on the both the O/U and the spread. Prediction Bills 21-Jets 17. 

Redskins @ Eagles (Philly -10, O/U 44.5) *77 and Sunny

The Redskins will roll out Case Keenum after Dwayne Haskins showed he wasn’t really ready to become the starter in the NFL just yet. I have my doubts he will ever be a good QB in this league, but we shall see. This Skins team is a hot mess with no Oline to speak of and without any true solid threats at WR. Rookie Terry McClaurin, Veteran Paul Richarsdson and slot man Trey Quinn will be their top guys, until Jordan Reed (Concussion) returns. Vernon Davis will start at Tight End this week. Pass on all these guys. Case Keenum looked awful last year in Denver and I don’t see how he can look any better in Washington.

One positive is 2nd year RB Derrius Guice who is returning from an ACL tear. They need to slowly break him in while giving AP a decent amount of burn and build this offense around the running backs. Really love Guice’s talent and potential, but this is a tough week to use him, being it will be his first game in the NFL coming off an ACL tear. Pass on AP also, he may have a few good games to start the year, but as the season goes on Guice will take on more and more of the starting role and AP will fade out. The only Skin I have hope for this year is Guice. It’s going to be a rough season for them.

I’ve heard good things about Carson Wentz this off season, and we may just see the QB we saw two years ago before his injury right before the playoffs. At the end of last year Wentz looked like a mess with pimples all over his face, looked like the dude from Something about Mary. He was going through something, and it now seems he has righted the ship. Philly has added some new weapons with the addition of Desean Jackson, Jordan Howard and rookies Miles Sanders and JJ Arcega-Whiteside. I think Wentz is in for a solid season.

Zach Ertz, we know about him, the only way I can see him taking a slight step back is if Philly starts to utilize Dallas Goedert more this season. Even if they do, it may not matter. Philly however, would be smart to get Dallas more involved this year. I hope we see it this week. The backfield is still a bit of an unknown with many faces, but much like Devin Singletary in Buffalo, Miles Sanders can separate himself. Sproles may cut into Sanders early on, but Sanders should pull away from him. Jordan Howard also has a chance to have a productive year if he can bounce back from a somewhat down season last year in Chicago. So this backfield is still unclear, but I do see Sanders emerging at some point, but then again Sproles can still play and Howard may do his thing, keeping Sanders from truly emerging. We need to see how this one plays out before using these guys. Corey Clement who was promising coming into last year is now an afterthought.

Alshon Jeffrey was more productive with Nick Foles as his QB, but maybe Wentz and him will have more of a connection this season. Nelson Agholor does nothing for me, and I am not really excited about Desean Jackson either. I think JJ Arcega-Whitside has a great chance to become the #2 WR on this team and finish with season like what we saw from Calvin Ridley or Mike Williams last year. Double Digit TD’s.  I would add him if he’s out there in your league. WR Mack Hollins is a guy to monitor, big lengthy guy, who could be a factor with an injury.

Ertz, Wentz, Whiteside, are guys I would use this week in DFS. Eagles are a strong survivor pick and could be the best one of the week. They are playing a division rival, but the Skins are starting Case Keenum with limited weapons and a patch work O-line. I will also take Philly against the spread, pass on the total. Prediction Philly 26 Skins 13.

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