King of Harpoons 2017: Divisional Round Analysis

Welcome back everyone as we get geared up for the divisional round of the playoffs. Hope everyone had a great week. It’s time to kick back and enjoy some great games this weekend. Screw the politics and all the banter, set that all aside this weekend, as this is what makes America great and enjoyable.

One round and four games are in the books with 7 games and three rounds left to play in the postseason. The Wild Card round provided slight clarity as to who really has a shot at winning this prestigious tournament, but so much can change still and it will only be after this weekend that we will truly have a good idea at who the true contenders are. If you didn’t read my post draft review you can check that here. Now we will get to a preview of the Divisional Round along with some projected scores and updated odds.

Bob Portman currently leads the pack after the WildCard round with 113.05 points and 6 players remaining. Bob’s team is solely reliant on Le’Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers winning this week and going to the promise land. The only other truly point producing players are Davante Adams and the Falcons D. If he can get all 3 of these teams to advance he is in business. The other three remaining players, Teron Ward, Chris Conley and DeAngelo Williams are going to give him next nothing.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 42 Points.

Updated Odds: 25-1

2nd Place is being held by Greg and Sandra Santos aka MamaBaDay60. They sit at 106.10 points with 6 players left. They got two huge opening round performances from Thomas Rawls and Antonio Brown and need these core players to advance. Or at least one of them. Alex Smith makes his playoff debut this weekend as does Cole Beasley, two solid selections. His other remaining players are Jesse James and Jeff ” My Mom makes one hell of a meatloaf” Janis. I like their position more so than RJPortman’s as they will move ahead of him after this round. I think they has a very nice shot to take this tournament down.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 56 Points.

Updated Odds: 10-1

KennyD was the brunt of many jokes around these circles including from yours truly after his surprising lackluster draft performance. But that all changed 4pm last Saturday as Big Brock Osweiler and Ryan Griffin got off to a hot start and then on Sunday when Randall Cobb finished with three TD’s. Ken has 105.10 points and has all 11 players left. But that  will likely dwindle heavily after this weekend. Ken will just have to hope Brock gives him some kind of solid performance before he bows out this weekend against the Pats. He will also need the Packers to keep it rolling as he has both Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. Nelson will be out this weekend however, but maybe Cobb can perform for the both of them like he did last week. Devonta Freeman is a key piece that he will having going and his other two best producing players are Steven Hauschka and Steelers D. Lance Dunbar, Lucky Whitehead, Sammie Coates and Jermaine Kearse likely will give him less than 10 points combined this weekend, but you never know maybe Sammie  or Jermaine  come out of the woodwork somehow. While Ken had a good start to this tournament, Ol’ Gary thinks he doesn’t have the lasting power to sustain. But he proved us wrong last week, maybe he can again.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 65 Points

Updated Odds: 30-1

Frank Thoma aka Griplip is in 4th place with 98.25 points and 8 players left. Frank will need Seattle to win today and advance to the SuperBowl to have any shot to win this as Doug Baldwin and the Seattle D anchor the team. DeAndre Hopkins is going bye-bye after this weekend, but maybe he go out with a bang. LeGarrette Blount is the last main piece that he will need to remain and as this is the New England Invitational in the AFC, Blount will likely last all the way. But we will get enough points from the others? Jared Cook, Demarcus Ayers, and Justin Hardy aren’t going to get it done. He will need Cairo Santos to advance this week and have a nice performance. Frank needs a Seattle/Pats SB. It is possible.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 72 Points

Updated Odds: 15-1

Espo aka Zerooo is in 5th place with 85.60 points and 9 players left. Can Aaron Rodgers keep it going and keep the Packers winning streak alive? Espo’s chances rest on his shoulders. He also has Ty Montgomery. Dez Byrant and Dan Bailey are the insurance in case the Pack do go down. Paul Richardson had a huge opening round game and he will need him to advance as well.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 78 Points

Updated Odds: 10-1

DKDMoney, Dylan and Jake, the DeAngelo Bros are in 6th place with 75.95 points and 6 players left. They simply need a Cowboys and Chiefs SB with Zeke and Kelce. The rest of team is going to do next to nothing for them with guys like Terrance Williams, James Starks and Darius-Heyward Bey. The Texans D are done after this game and they lost their kicker and QB last round. Not a great introductory Harpooner for the young gunners, but they should get better over the years.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 45 Points

Updated Odds: 50-1

7th spot is Chase Licata with 67.90 points and 9 players left. Chase like Frank, also needs a Seattle/New England SB with Russell Wilson, Jimmy Graham, Malcolm Mitchell (questionable this week) and Chris Hogan. Well really he needs Seattle to go all the way because the Pats guys just won’t produce enough. Witten, Packers D and Nick Novak are his other best point producing players left. Seattle or Bust.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 70 Points

Updated Odds: 13-1

Swift456, Steve DeAngelo is in 8th place with 56.60 points and 7 players left. O’Dell Beckham was a killer as he was his 2nd pick overall and provided just five points. At least Jarvis Landry went out with a bang and 22 points. Steve needs both #1 Seeds to stick to the script and get to the SB as he has Dak, Cowboys D, Gostkowski, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola. The only other decent contributor he has is Christine Michael. Steve has the most likely SB scenario so his chances look very good, but if the Cowboys lose this weekend he is done.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 59 Points

Updated Odds: 5-1

9th place currently is Evan Swalling with 40.85 points and 8 players left. Evan’s squad is heavy AFC with Big Ben, Jeremy Maclin, Martellus Bennett and James White repping as the teams best remaining performers. Really the only chance I see Evan having is if the Steelers go to the Superbowl. But that would likely be offset by MamaBaDay and RJPortman having Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown and already being so far ahead in points. Plus Ben has been bad on the road all season and is playing with a bum ankle because Mike Tomlin had him in during garbage time. Maybe he can squeeze in a Taylor Gabriel SB appearance with an explosion in points his next three games. Gary don’t see though. Reminds me I need to eat more carrots and bring my dear Mother to the Eye Doc tomorrow.

Divisional Round Projected Score:62 Points 

Updated Odds 40-1

10th Place Robby D/Freehole23 with 37.70 points and 8 players left. Rob’s first pick Tom Brady goes off this weekend and should light up the scoreboard against the Texans. But outside of Brady where is he going to get points from? Michael Floyd? Tevin Coleman? Sanu? Pats are likely going to the SB, but will that be enough to get it done? He will need Michael Floyd to become a key weapon for Brady with the Falcons going to the SB. Coleman could have some nice games. Not sure he will have enough points when it’s all said and done, will see. It’s a shame he doesn’t have a K or Defense left to give steady producing points.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 50 Points

Updated Odds: 20-1

11th place is Joe Portman aka Plunker with 31.15 points and 8 players left. Right now Connor Cook is currently still the best 11 pick overall, beating out Phins D by .5 points. However that could change with CJ Prosise probably playing this week and/or Demarcus Ayers who has 3 points currently getting another 5+ points. This may be Joe’s only hope at the money, unless of course the Falcons go to the SB and he gets a Julio/Edelman combo along with Pats D and Matt Bryant. That a solid core 4 there and is better than most. It has real lasting power and that is the key in these post season tournaments. Joe is way down in points 81 points behind the leader so he does have some making up to do. Still we like his chances here.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 70 Points

Updated Odds: 7-1

Last place currently, although that doesn’t mean to much at this juncture is Gary Portman with 22.90 points and 9 players left. Gary’s team is all about a KC/Atlanta SB with Matt Ryan, Tyreek Hill, Spencer Ware, and Chiefs D. He also has some other producers left with Mason Crosby and C.J. Prosise who has a good shot at playing against Atlanta. If KC and Atlanta do meet in the Superbowl, Gary will likely come all the way from 12th place to the top of the heap. A Green Bay victory over Dallas would help tremendously.

Divisional Round Projected Score: 70 Points

Updated Odds: 8-1

Well that’s it for now, a little less humour in this article than in previous posts, but that’s only because sometimes the Harpoons is serious business. Can’t always been just fun and games. Everybody have a great weekend, enjoy the games, until next week this is Gary Plonderson saying, Sustain the Winds, Ride through the Fogs!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2014 FantasySavvy Football: Week 15 Player Rankings (Playoff Edition)

QB’s

  1. Tony Romo @ PHI
  2. Drew Brees @ CHI
  3. Ben Roethlisberger @ ATL
  4. Andrew Luck vs HOU
  5. Peyton Manning @ SD
  6. Aaron Rodgers @ BUF
  7. Tom Brady vs MIA
  8. Matthew Stafford vs MIN
  9. Matt Ryan vs PIT  *with or w/o Julio
  10. Russell Wilson vs SF
  11. Phillip Rivers vs DEN
  12. Mark Sanchez vs DAL
  13. Jay Cutler vs NO
  14. Joe Flacco vs JAC
  15. Eli Manning vs WAS
  16. Johnny Manziel vs CIN
  17. Ryan Fitzpatrick @ IND
  18. Kyle Orton vs GB
  19. Ryan Tannehill @ NE
  20. Alex Smith vs OAK
  21. Andy Dalton @ CLE
  22. Colt McCoy @ NYG
  23. Colin Kaepernick @ SEA
  24. Jake Locker vs NYJ
  25. Josh McNown @ CAR
  26. Derek Anderson vs TB
  27. Teddy Bridgewater @ DET
  28. Blake Bortles @ BAL
  29. Derek Carr @ KC
  30. Gino Smith @ TEN

RB’s

  1. Le’Veon Bell @ ATL
  2. Jamaal Charles vs OAK
  3. Justin Forsett vs JAC
  4. DeMarco Murray @ PHI
  5. LeSean McCoy vs DAL
  6. Arian Foster @ IND
  7. Matt Forte vs NO
  8. Marshawn Lynch vs SF
  9. C.J. Anderson @ SD
  10. Joique Bell vs MIN
  11. Eddie Lacy @ BUF
  12. Jeremy Hill @ CLE
  13. Mark Ingram @ CHI
  14. Alfred Morris @ NYG
  15. Isaiah Crowell vs CIN
  16. Rashad Jennings vs WAS
  17. Latavius Murray @ KC
  18. Steven Jackson vs PIT
  19. Fred Jackson vs GB
  20. Lamar Miller @ NE
  21. LeGarrette Blount vs MIA
  22. Chris Ivory @ TEN
  23. Jonathan Stewart vs TB
  24. Dan Herron vs HOU
  25. Terrance West vs CIN
  26. Andre Williams vs WAS
  27. Chris Johnson @ TEN
  28. Giovani Bernard @ CLE
  29. James Starks @ BUF
  30. Shane Vereen vs MIA
  31. Donald Brown vs DEN
  32. Reggie Bush vs MIN
  33. Matt Asiata @ DET
  34. Doug Martin @ CAR
  35. Darren Sproles vs DAL
  36. Knile Davis vs OAK
  37. Bishop Sankey vs NYJ
  38. Pierre Thomas @ CHI
  39. Ronnie Hillman @ SD *questionable
  40. Trent Richardson vs HOU
  41. Brandon Oliver vs DEN
  42. Toby Gerhart @ BAL
  43. Juwan Thompson @ SD
  44. Charles Sims @ CAR
  45. Bernard Pierce vs JAC
  46. Jonas Gray vs MIA * Pats may go back to Gray this week.

WR’s

  1. Calvin Johnson vs MIN
  2. Antonio Brown @ ATL
  3. Dez Bryant @ PHI
  4. O’Dell Beckham vs WAS
  5. Demaryious Thomas @ SD
  6. T.Y. Hilton vs HOU
  7. Emmanuel Sanders @ SD
  8. Jeremy Maclin vs DAL
  9. Randall Cobb @ BUF
  10. Josh Gordon vs CIN
  11. Jordy Nelson @ BUF
  12. A.J. Green @ CLE * Bad History vs Haden.
  13. Julio Jones vs PIT *highly questionable, GT Decision, Likely OUT.
  14. Alshon Jeffrey vs NO
  15. DeAndre Hopkins @ IND
  16. Mike Evans @ CAR
  17. Roddy White vs PIT
  18. Kelvin Benjamin vs TB
  19. Keenan Allen vs DEN
  20. Brandon LaFell vs MIA
  21. Julian Edelman vs MIA
  22. Sammy Watkins vs GB
  23. DeSean Jackson @ NYG *50/50 to play
  24. Kenny Stills @ CHI
  25. Jordan Matthews vs DAL
  26. Andre Johnson @ IND *questionable w/ Concussion GD Decision
  27. Mike Wallace @ NE
  28. Martavis Bryant @ ATL
  29. Vincent Jackson @ CAR
  30. Golden Tate vs MIN
  31. Steve Smith Sr. vs JAC
  32. Torrey Smith vs JAC *questionable
  33. Charles Johnson @ DET
  34. Harry Douglas vs PIT *questionable, (Only at this Ranking if Julio is OUT, if Julio plays not in Rankings)
  35. Marquess Wilson vs NO
  36. Marques Colston @ CHI
  37. Malcolm Floyd vs DEN
  38. Eric Decker @ TEN
  39. Donte Moncrief vs HOU
  40. Percy Harvin @ TEN *highly questionable
  41. Anquan Boldin @ SEA
  42. Marquise Lee @ BAL
  43. Kendall Wright vs NYJ * Questionable
  44. Nate Washington vs NYJ
  45. Doug Baldwin vs SF
  46. Michael Crabtree @ SEA
  47. Cole Beasley @ PHI
  48. Jarvis Landry @ NE *Looks like he will be on Revis Island.
  49. Pierre Garcon @ NYG
  50. Robert Woods vs GB
  51. Ruben Randle vs WAS
  52. Mohammed Sanu @ CLE
  53. Cecil Shorts @ BAL
  54. Dwayne Bowe vs OAK
  55. Kamar Aiken vs JAC *Bumps up 10 spots if Torrey Smith is OUT. Sneaky Daily league play.

TE’s

  1. Jimmy Graham @ CHI
  2. Rob Gronkowski vs MIA
  3. Antonio Gates vs DEN
  4. Jordan Reed @ NYG
  5. Jordan Cameron vs CIN
  6. Travis Kelce vs OAK
  7. Jason Witten @ PHI
  8. Larry Donnell vs WAS * Tore them up last time for 3 TD’s, take it for what it’s worth? What is it worth tho? That’s why that Statement makes no sense
  9. Heath Miller @ ATL
  10. Greg Olsen vs TB
  11. Delanie Walker vs NYJ
  12. Coby Fleener vs HOU
  13. Dwayne Allen vs HOU
  14. Jermaine Gresham @ CLE
  15. Vernon Davis @ SEA
  16. Mychal Rivera @ KC
  17. Zach Ertz vs DAL
  18. Charles Clay @ NE
  19. Scott Chandler vs GB
  20. Tim Wright vs MIA
  21. Kyle Rudolph vs DET
  22. Owen Daniels vs JAc
  23. Eric Ebron vs MIN
  24. Marcedes Lewis @ BAL
  25. Richard Rodgers @ BUF

2014 FantasySavvy Football: Week 15 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

By Kevin Lewis

*For Seasonal and Daily Leagues

START

WR Charles Johnson @DET($6600): Johnson has clearly established himself as the Vikings number one WR. Not that it says much with Cordarrelle “yes I am still in the NFL” Patterson and Greg “I was hot a long time ago” Jennings, but that’s not relevant here. Over his last four games, Johnson has turned 30 targets into 15 catches for 283 yards and two scores. There is a strong chance Minnesota will be playing catch up all game and there is really nobody to threaten Johnson’s opportunities. It’s scary relying on him because of a relatively erratic QB but I actually believe  his floor is pretty high this week all things considered.

TE Jimmy Graham @CHI($6900) I know, I know. If you had any exposure to Graham in the last two weeks, you’re sick to your stomach. The simple fact that I have to write him here underscores that. He has just four fantasy points in his last two games. Two games ago he had zero targets, but last week he had 11 and still did nothing so who really knows? If he can’t do it against the Bears, all hope might be lost. I’m being a little dramatic but not really.

QB Mark Sanchez vsDAL($7500): Don’t let last week get you down about Sanchez. I know that he had 96 yards passing and all but over the last three years a healthy Seattle defense has throttled a lot of people. The Dallas Cowboys aren’t the Seattle Seahawks. On Thanksgiving, the Eagles put up 33 points on 464 yards. I think his floor is reasonable in a game that should feature a lot of points.

RB Chris Johnson @TEN: Titans have the worst run defense in football. Chris Johnson has had this game circled on the calendar the minute he signed with the Jets. Hopefully for me and the rest who choose to play him, 1+1=2.

Marquess Wilson $4,500 vs NO:  Minimum priced starting WR with immense talents playing in a game featuring one of the highest over unders of the week. He should be an overqualified WR3 this week.

WR Donte Moncrief vs HOU($5700) If Reggie Wayne sits, Moncrief instantly becomes a potential WR2 against the most generous fantasy defense when it comes to WRs in the NFL.

TE Jordan Cameron vs CIN($5100): I feel Johnny Manziel boosts everyone’s value upon his insertion into the starting lineup. That includes Cameron who is barely above minimum price on Fanduel.

WR Kenny Stills @CHI($6100): I know he came off a disappointing week but the opportunity and matchup is still ideal for Stills. His price point on Fanduel hasn’t moved so that is also fair. Stills makes for a good play everywhere against Chicago’s piss poor secondary.

SIT

QB Colin Kaepernick @SEA($6800)- I have no idea why he’s still on your roster but now is not the time to get fancy. He’s going up against arguably the best defense in football and one that has had his number at that. He scored a whopping ONE point against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving.

QB Ryan Tannehill @NE($8000)- New England in December. He’s throwing the ball against a secondary that just finished shutting down Philip Rivers. He averages 213 yards and 0.5 passing touchdowns in his trips to NE over the last two years. I’d avoid.

RB Ryan Mathews vs DEN($7600)- He hasn’t touched the ball more than 15 times in any of the last three games and the Broncos are one of the better run defenses in football. If you’re going to start him, you’re heavily reliant on the possibility of him scoring more than one touchdown.

RB Lamar Miller @NE($6700)- The Dolphins use him scarcely for whatever reason and the Patriots defense hasn’t allowed a rushing TD since the beginning of November. I’m not sure I’m listing him here to tell you to sit him more than I’m listing him here to tell folks to temper their expectations.

RB Frank Gore @SEA($5300)- This one is pretty simple. San Fran is playing the Seahawks in Seattle, and Gore looks like he’s finished. Add in a struggling San Francisco offensive line and you have a perfect recipe for a guy to avoid.

WR DeAndre Hopkins @IND($7300)- The Colts struggle stopping the run. Vontae Davis is going to play in this game, and he is one of the premiere CBs in the league. Add in that Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t particularly good and Hopkins is a guy you sit if you have a choice or one you start quite nervously.

TE Coby Fleener vs HOU($6300)- Dwayne Allen is back. That means the Fleener party is over. Avoid him.

TE Mychal Rivera @KC($5600)- The Chiefs give up the least yards and receptions per game to tight ends in the league. Rivera is nothing but a Hail Mary play at best.

2014 FantasySavvy Football: Fantasy Playoffs Week 14 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

By: Kevin Lewis

Shout out to Jimmy Graham for scoring as many points as I did last week. That said, time for start em/sit em.  For both daily and seasonal leagues. *Fanduel Prices.

START:

TE Kyle Rudolph, vs Jets($5200)- The Jets let up a TD per game to tight ends and let up the third most points to the position. Running the ball against the Jets for the most part is a grand waste of time and they can’t defend the pass. I like Rudolph this week especially if you want a cap relief alternative to Gronk and Jimmy Graham on Fanduel.

TE Antonio Gates, vs New England($5600)- Gates is another Gronk/Graham pivot in Fanduel. This isn’t really about any fancy numbers even though the Patriots have allowed the second most yards to tight ends. With Revis and Browner holding down the outside against the Chargers wide receivers I think Gates will be targeted a lot out of opportunity and necessity. I think a 5/75/1 line isn’t farfetched for Gates on Sunday night.

WR Kenny Stills, vs Carolina($6700)-Kenny Stills has been targeted 15 times in the two games since Brandin Cooks went down with a season ending injury. In those two games, Stills has 13 catches for 260 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers have given up the second most touchdowns to wide receivers in the NFL. I fully expect Stills to pile up the points this week.

WR Charles Johnson, vs Jets($6000)- He’s played 97% of the snaps the last three weeks and is going against a team that has allowed the most passing TDs in the league. This might be the week where Johnson cashes in for you.

WR Jarvis Landry, vs Baltimore($6900)- Mike Wallace could also fit in this space as I think he’s a decent play this week as well. I do like Landry more however and I think his floor is a little safer than Wallace. He’s been the molst heavily targeted WR on the team the last five weeks and has caught a whopping 76% of his targets. Tannehill has been really good at home and the Ravens secondary is a mash unit.

RB Jonathan Stewart, vs New Orleans($5200)- The Saints run defense has let up at least 80 yards in two of the past three weeks. He’s dirt cheap on Fanduel and DeAngelo Williams isn’t playing.

RB Daniel Herron, @Cleveland($6400) – The Browns are 18th against the run this season and Herron is the Colts primary back at this stage of the game. I like his chances against them this week.

TE Delanie Walker, vs Giants($5400)- Justin Hunter is out and the Giants are the worst team in the NFL in relation to YPC from the TE. TE is a relative wild card outside of Gronkowski and Graham but Walker feels like a pretty safe play this week.

 

SIT:

QB Colin Kaepernick, @Oakland($7200)- Once he did what he did against the Washington Redskins, he shouldn’t be on the radar to start in all honesty. The guy looks like he’s regressed as a QB and he hasn’t thrown more than one TD in a game in a month. Kaepernick is basically waiver fodder at this point in my estimation.

QB Mark Sanchez, vs Seattle($7700)- I know the narratives surrounding Sanchez and his improvement and all. Some of them are based in reality as Sanchez has been solid since taking Foles place. He still has eight turnovers in four games and him against the Seattle Seahawks defense is a mismatch.

RB Lamar Miller, vs Baltimore($6700)- The Ravens currently have street free agents playing CB. The way to beat them is through the air as Philip Rivers spotlighted last week. Even without Ngata, the Ravens should have enough talent up front to stop the run. This strikes me as a game for Ryan Tannehill to try and exploit a relatively uninspiring secondary.

RB Ryan Mathews, vs New England($7100)- The Patriots are seventh against the run this season and have allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns in the league. Behind a line that generally struggles in run blocking, I think you can do better than Ryan Mathews this week.

TE Vernon Davis, @Oakland($4900)- It’s in my contract to list him here every week. If you made the playoffs with this guy on your roster, I just want to salute you as he’s been practically useless all year in fantasy and real life.

TE Owen Daniels, @Miami($5300)- He’s averaged 19 yards per game the last three weeks, and the Dolphins are amongst the best in the league at eliminating the tight end.  Easy pass here.

RB Entire Vikings backfield, vs Jets- Just don’t. Don’t get cute. Don’t do it to yourself

RB Denard Robinson($6700)- I think the party is basically over with Robinson as he has been quiet the last two weeks and sees a bad matchup this week against a Texans defense that’s allowed 3.6 YPC the last month. He couldn’t hack it against the Giants pathetic run defense and that’s not a good sign going forward for him

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 16 Player Rankings (Super Bowl Rankings)

Thanks for following this year everyone, it’s much appreciated. This season flew by, but once again it was another great season. I hope all of you dominate in your Fantasy Super Bowls. Since it is the Super Bowl, I am going to shorten the lists a bit and take out some of the very irrelevant players. I should have some NBA, MLB and College Hoops stuff coming in the next few weeks and of course I will be back next year for Football, but even stronger. If you ever need to contact me you can @FantasySavvy on Twitter. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all, God Bless. Go get those Championships!

Quarterbacks

  1. Cam Newton vs OAK
  2. Tom Brady @ JAC
  3. Aaron Rodgers vs TEN
  4. RG3 @ PHI
  5. Tony Romo vs NO
  6. Drew Brees @ DAL
  7. Peyton Manning vs CLE
  8. Andrew Luck @ KC
  9. Eli Manning @ BAL
  10. Colin Kaepernick @ SEA
  11. Ben Roethlisberger vs CIN
  12. Matt Schaub vs MIN
  13. Sam Bradford @ TB
  14. Carson Palmer @ CAR
  15. Russell Wilson vs SF
  16. Andy Dalton @ PIT
  17. Joe Flacco vs NYG
  18. Chad Henne vs NE
  19. Ryan Fitzpatrick @ MIA
  20. Jay Cutler @ ARI
  21. Nick Foles vs WAS
  22. Brandon Weeden @ DEN
  23. Jake Locker @ GB

Running Backs

  1. Adrian Peterson @ HOU
  2. Arian Foster vs MIN
  3. DeMarco Murray vs NO
  4. Ray Rice vs NYG
  5. Alfred Morris @ PHI
  6. Marshawn Lynch vs SF
  7. C.J. Spiller @ MIA
  8. Jamaal Charles vs IND
  9. LeSean McCoy vs WAS
  10. Vick Ballard @ KC
  11. Stevan Ridley @ JAC
  12. Frank Gore @ SEA
  13. Darren McFadden @ CAR
  14. Trent Richardson @ DEN
  15. Reggie Bush vs BUF
  16. Knowshon Moreno vs CLE
  17. Darren Mcfadden @ CAR
  18. Darren Sproles @ DAL
  19. Matt Forte @ ARI
  20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ PIT
  21. Steven Jackson @ TB
  22. Chris Johnson @ GB
  23. DeAngelo Williams vs OAK
  24. Ahmad Bradshaw @ BAL *questionable, should play
  25. Montell Owens vs NE
  26. Shonn Greene vs SD
  27. Jonathan Dwyer vs CIN
  28. Chris “Beanie” Wells vs CHI
  29. David Wilson @ BAL *bump up 15 spots if Bradshaw is OUT
  30. Ronnie Brown @ NYJ
  31. Mark Ingram @ DAL
  32. Bilal Powell vs SD
  33. Alex Green vs CLE *questionable
  34. Jonathan Stewart vs OAK *questionable
  35. Bryce Brown vs WAS
  36. Shane Vereen @ JAC
  37. Pierre Thomas @ DAL
  38. Brandon Bolden @ JAC
  39.  Jackie Battle @ NYJ
  40. Issac Redman vs CIN
  41. Marcel Reese @ CAR
  42. Danny Woodhead @ JAC
  43. Peyton Hillis vs IND
  44. Dijuan Harris vs TEN  * move up to Greens Spot if Green OUT

Wide Receivers

  1. Dez Bryant vs NO
  2. Andre Johnson vs MIN
  3. A.J. Green @ PIT
  4. Brandon Marshall @ AZ
  5. Demaryius Thomas vs CLE
  6. Vincent Jackson vs STL
  7. Randall Cobb vs TEN
  8. Wes Welker @ JAC
  9. Reggie Wayne @ KC
  10. Steve Smith vs OAK
  11. Pierre Garcon @ PHI
  12. Victor Cruz @ BAL
  13. Marques Colston @ DAL
  14. Cecil Shorts vs NE
  15. Mike Wallace vs CIN
  16. Steve Johnson @ MIA
  17. Miles Austin vs NO
  18. Michael Crabtree @ SEA
  19. Danny Amendola @ TB
  20. James Jones vs TEN
  21. Hakeem Nicks @ BAL
  22. Eric Decker vs CLE
  23. Lance Moore @ DAL
  24. Justin Blackmon vs NE
  25. Brandon Lloyd @ JAC
  26. Greg Jennings vs TEN
  27. T.Y. Hilton @ KC
  28. Danario Alexander @ NYJ
  29. Torrey Smith vs NYG
  30. Denarius Moore @ CAR
  31. Anquan Boldin vs NYG
  32. Jeremy Maclin vs WAS
  33. Larry Fitzgerald vs CHI
  34. Josh Gordon @ DEN
  35. Antonio Brown vs CIN
  36. Sidney Rice vs SF
  37. Brian Hartline vs BUF
  38. Kenny Britt @ GB
  39. Donnie Avery @ KC
  40. Mike Williams vs STL
  41. Golden Tate vs SF
  42. Brandon LaFell vs OAK
  43. Jason Avant @ WAS
  44. Brandon Gibson @ TB
  45. Darrius Heyward-Bey @ CAR

Tight Ends

  1. Jason Witten vs NO
  2. Aaron Hernandez @ JAC
  3. Jimmy Graham @ DAL
  4. Heath Miller vs CIN
  5. Owen Daniels vs MIN
  6. Jermaine Gresham @ PIT
  7. Greg Olsen vs OAK
  8. Dennis Pitta vs NYG
  9. Antonio Gates @ NYJ
  10. Vernon Davis @ SEA
  11. Brandon Myers @ CAR
  12. Jermichael Finley vs TEN
  13. Kyle Rudolph @ HOU
  14. Marcedes Lewis vs NE
  15. Dwayne Allen @ KC
  16. Scott Chandler @ MIA
  17. Dallas Clark vs STL
  18. Joel Dreessen vs CLE
  19. Jacob Tamme vs CLE
  20. Anthony Fasano vs BUF
  21. Brent Celek vs WAS
  22. Tony Moeaki vs IND

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 15 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em (Playoff Edition)

As seen on FP911.com. Make sure to check there for tons of great information to get you prepared for the Fantasy Playoffs. If you are knocked out you can still play in our daily leagues at FP911challenge.com

If your team(s) have made it this far, they are most likely stacked with talent so some tough decisions will have to be made. As always I try to leave the obvious selections out and focus on those tough decisions. Feel free to hit me up @FantasySavvy on twitter with any questions you may have. Congratulations on a terrific season thus far and I hope all of you finish the season off strong.

You won’t see the obvious names on here, that would be pointless. Maybe occasionally to give you a reminder, but rather we are looking to identify some guys that you may be on the fence with and encourage you to either start or sit them. Matchups will be broken down, stats will be used, some projections will be provided and some “gut” feeling will be mixed in. But when it comes down to the come down, it’s your “gut” you need to roll with.

*Players listed in order of projected effectiveness in the start ‘em category and ineffectiveness in the sit ‘em category.

Quarterbacks

Start ‘Em

Colin Kaepernick @ New England

Kaepernick hasn’t thrown a TD the last two weeks, but he’s rushed for 130 yards including a TD. While the rushing stats should be expected once again, the passing numbers should increase as well. There is no doubt the 49ers will be passing more than usual as they line up against the Patriots, trying to keep pace with their offense and looking to exploit their pass defense. I expect Kaep to deliver for Fantasy Owners and finish with over 300 total yards with at least 2 TD’s.

Josh Freeman @ New Orleans

Freeman has cooled off after his mid-season surge and really hasn’t played all that well, but the matchup this week is too good to pass up. The Saints are still allowing the most points to QB’s and Freeman still has Vincent Jackson. Look for Freeman to put up close to 300 yards passing with at least two TD’s.

Carson Palmer vs Kansas City

If Palmer can throw for 273 and 2 TD’s against Denver, then he can do the same if not better vs Kansas City. Palmer can hurt you by throwing terrible interceptions, but he still seems to get the numbers every week. Brandon Myers, Denarius Moore  and Darrius Heyward-Bey should all get into the mix and Palmer will finish with a fairly solid day.

Sit ‘Em

Nick Foles vs Cincinnati

Foles played pretty well last week, leading the Eagles to a come behind victory against Tampa, but the matchup is extremely rough this week. The Bengals defensive line vs the Eagles offensive line? The Bengals haven’t allowed a Fantasy QB to score over 20 points for five straight weeks now, so leave Foles out of consideration.

Joe Flacco vs Denver

Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is now gone, but this is still the same Joe Flacco. The only thing that might change now is that Ray Rice will get the ball more often. Yes, Flacco did throw for 3 TD’s last week, but that was against the Skins and their horrid secondary. Flacco hasn’t been over 200 yards passing the last two weeks however and most definitely can not be trusted against Denver and Champ Bailey.

Tony Romo vs Pittsburgh

Romo gets another tough matchup against the Steelers and might have to face them without Dez Bryant. The jury is still out on whether or not Bryant will play, but regardless you have to think about benching Romo this week. Romo is not going to pass for over 300 yards and will have a hard time getting multiple TD’s.

Running Backs

Start ‘Em

C.J. Spiller vs Seattle

To me Spiller is one of the five most talented backs in the league, so it’s really a shame how much Chan Gailey has under utilized him this season. But now with Fred Jackson OUT for the rest of the season, it will be all Spiller. Gailey has already stated that Spiller will get a lot of work. Don’t let the Seattle Defense scare you, Spiller easily has the talent to overcome any defense. He is a must-start for the remainder of the Fantasy Playoffs.

Reggie Bush vs Jacksonville

Miami Head Coach Joe Philbin stated that he would start to get Reggie more involved in the passing game and did so against the 49ers as Reggie caught five passes for 38 yards. He also rushed for 65 yards on 14 carries and ran hard against San Fran. Bush has been playing well the last few weeks and now with him getting more involved into the passing game he can be trusted again. Look for Bush to have over 100 total yards with four to five catches and a possible score.

Montell Owens @ Miami

This two-time Special Teams Pro-Bowler played fairly well last week in his first start at RB rushing for 91 yards and a TD against the Jets. With Rashad Jennings and MJD OUT once again it will be all Owens. He’s going to get at least 15-20 touches and should approach close to 100 total yards.

Sit ‘Em

Ryan Mathews vs Carolina

I don’t care how good the matchup is, Mathews can’t be trusted. He hasn’t rushed for 100 yards all season and has one rushing TD. Why does this guy continue to be started?

Mikel Leshoure @ Arizona

Leshoure is not very explosive and doesn’t do anything to really impress. With Joique Bell starting to take a lot of time away from him now, Leshoure needs to be on your benches.

Ahmad Bradshaw @ Atlanta

Bradshaw plays every week, but he is never fully healthy and after last weeks performance by David Wilson, Bradshaw is going to lose time to the Rookie. Bradshaw could even miss this weeks game with a sprained knee. It’s time to start thinking about other options.

Wide Receivers

Start ‘Em

Danario Alexander vs Carolina

Alexander has always been talented, he just has never been healthy. He is really making Phillip Rivers look good and has 5 TD’s in his last five games. He is Rivers go-to-guy and his best red zone threat. Carolina’s secondary is nothing special providing Alexander a great chance to find the endzone again this week.

Michael Crabtree @ New England

Crabtree is easily Kaepernick’s favorite target with 22 targets and over 200 yards receiving in his last two games. Keep him going against the Pats.

Josh Gordon vs Washington

Gordon has been on fire of late, and should be able to burn DeAngelo Hall and the Washington Redskins porous secondary. Expect close to 100 yards receiving.

Sit ‘Em

Donnie Avery @ Houston

The Houston secondary has been getting torched of late, but Avery has just been way too inconsistent to be relied upon. He had a great matchup last week and disappointed. Luck also isn’t great on the road and prefers Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton over Avery.

Kenny Britt vs NYJ

Britt broke out from the doldrums last week with 8 catches and 143 yards, but has to face Antonio Cromartie this week who has been excellent against No.1 WR’s all season. Tough matchup for Britt, look for other options if possible.

Torrey Smith vs Denver

Smith has a pending matchup with Champ Bailey, but has failed in lesser matchups. In his last four games Smith has been held under 40 yards receiving three times. Stay away.

Tight Ends

Start ‘Em

Greg Olsen @ San Diego

Cam Newton has finally started to play at a high level again and Greg Olsen has been benefiting as a result with 4 TD’s in his last five games including scoring in back to back weeks.

Vernon Davis @ New England

How can I recommend a guy who has a combined 19 yards in his last three games? Yes it’s very hard for me to do so, but you have to throw him out there in this matchup against the Pats.  New England is second worst against Tight Ends. I hope Vernon does nothing once again because I am facing him this week, but with all the passing the 49ers will be doing, Davis has to get involved. If he doesn’t go over 50 yards receiving this week, I will be very surprised, but maybe I shouldn’t be.

Martellus Bennett @ Atlanta

Eli has been picking up the pace as the Giants go on another one of their late season runs and Bennett will continue to be targeted in the redzone. Bennett has seen 15 targets and scored twice the last two weeks so get him in your lineups.

Sit ‘Em

Tony Scheffler @ Arizona

There is a good chance Brandon Pettigrew will not play in this game and Scheffler will get the starting nod. Scheffler has been playing well, but the Cards are the best when it comes to covering the Tight End, allowing the fewest fantasy points.

Jermichael Finley @ Chicago

Finley has been just a pure disappointment all year and he can not be trusted in the Fantasy Playoffs, despite his “talent” and the QB tossing him the rock. Steer clear.

Kyle Rudolph @ St. Louis

Rudolph had scored in three straight games but killed Fantasy Owners last week by doing absolutely nothing, literally. I don’t know about you, but after a player scores zero points for my team, they become very hard to trust.

IDP’s

Start ‘Em

Jarod Mayo vs San Francisco

Mayo has had a fine season with 74 tackles and now faces a run-heavy 49ers team that is giving up the 7th most points to Fantasy Linebackers.

Cliff Avril @ Arizona

We saw what the Seahawks defense did to the Arizona offense last week, and Avril who has 9.5 sacks this year will have plenty of opportunities to wreak havoc on Ryan Lindley.

Sit ‘Em

Michael Bennett @ New Orleans

Not a good matchup for Bennett facing the Saints and Drew Brees who rarely gets sacked.

Jarius Byrd vs Seattle

I’ll keep it simple. The Seahawks are giving up the fewest points to Safeties this year.

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 14 Fantasy Five (Playoff Edition)

By: Alex Schoenfeld

The first round of the playoffs is here. For those who are lucky enough to still have a heartbeat feast your eyes on the fantasy five.

Dallas @ Cincinnati:

Usually, when discussing anything Bengals, we start with AJ Green. Not this week. Here’s a question for you football buffs: What do Corey Dillon and BenJarvus Green-Ellis have in common? Easy right? Both played for the Patriots. What I bet you didn’t know, is that “The Law Firm” has run for 100+ yards in his past 3 games; making him the first Bengals back since (yep, that’s right) Corey Dillon (circa 1999) to put up such numbers. Can he continue this pace against a porous Cowboys run defense? He’s got my vote. My stat prediction: 26 attempts for 106 yards, 1 TD along with 4 catches for 19 yards.

Keeping with our running back theme, DeMarco Murray had a nice game against Philadelphia last week (who hasn’t?) with 23 attempts for 83 yards and a score. So much for Garrett’s plan to ease him back into a normal workload. Murray is angry. Missing the majority of the season with a bum foot has him mad at the world, so expect hard “hit you before you hit me” type runs. Don’t overthink this one; he’s a top 10 RB play. My stat prediction: 18 attempts for 88 yards and 5 catches for 50 yards and a rec TD.

AJ versus Dez. Green is the better option but I like them both to find the endzone. My stat prediction: AJ: 10 receptions for 115 yards and a TD. DB: 6 Receptions for 77 yards and a TD. Offensively, both of these teams are hitting their stride; finding that “oh so difficult” balance between the run and passing game.

I anticipate sporadic quarterback play in this game. Tony Romo should have the better day of the two, but don’t discount Andy Dalton and his ability to find AJ deep. My prediction: Romo: 23-40 270 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Dalton 18-27 230 yards 2 TD’s 1INT.

 

 

Chicago @ Minnesota:

Adrian Peterson. Need I say more? This guy is NOT human. If Fox’s robot “Cleatus” actually played on Sunday’s, his number would be 28, his team the Vikings and the name would be Peterson. With Urlacher already declared out for the game (and possibly the remainder of the regular season) expect AP to gash the normally stout Bears defense. This is a do or die game for the Vikings so expect desperation. Stat prediction: 30 attempts for 154 yards and 1 TD along with 4 catches for 27 yards.

With teams focusing more of their defensive strategies to contain Brandon Marshall, we should see opportunity for Matt Forte. Forte is a perfect example of my “law of averages” theory. He has had a solid season, but truly underwhelmed projections until this point. I predict BIG receiving numbers for Forte from this week out. My stat prediction: 18 rush for 70 yards and 8 receptions for 85 yards and 1 TD.

Fantasy favorite Percy Harvin is on IR. We all know his ability, and in the same breath, we know his propensity for injury.This hurts many fantasy teams, but owners can’t say they weren’t warned. Don’t get cute with Jerome Simpson. If there’s any viable receiving option for Minnesota, it’s Rudolph or Jarius Wright. Of course, these are complete lottery tickets, so owners beware. Rudolph has been hot of late however.

We thought the big and physical secondary play of the Seahawks would limit Brandon Marshall. Mark that under the list of “things that DIDN’T happen” last week. He did everything but find the endzone. We know he’s a PPR freak, but the yards came with it this time (165). He cut up the Vikings secondary two weeks ago for a line of 12 catches for 92 yards. I don’t think he will have 17 targets like he did in the previous match-up, but I do expect him to find pay dirt. Stat prediction: 9 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TD’s.

Quarterback play in this game should be lopsided. I like Jay Cutler to keep his playoff push focus up against a susceptible Viking’s pass D. Stat prediction: 21-30 288 yards and 3 TD’s 2INT.

Do not, I repeat, DO NOT even sniff Christian Ponder. Over the past seven weeks, he’s thrown for 76 less yards than AP has ran for over that span. He couldn’t take advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable defense, what makes you think he can produce against arguably the best? Stat prediction: 14-29 215 yards 2 INT’s.

 

 

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

The secret’s out. Bryce Brown will hurt you. Now that opponents know what he’s capable of, can they stop him? If any team in the league can, it would be the Buccaneers. Their stingy run D only allows a mere 82 yards per game. The only two players in the league than broke the century rushing mark against the Bucs run defense are Adrian Peterson and Alfred Morris. But I still like Brown. Stat Prediction: 18 attempts for 70 yards 1 TD along with 5 catches for 61 yards (plus 1 fumble).

Rookie wall? What rookie wall? Doug Martin has been great this year. Owners who took a chance with him are being rewarded greatly for their intuition. Philadelphia has quit on their season. This means that “they aren’t who we thought they were” players in DeMeco Ryans and Nnamdi Asomugha won’t be risking next year’s health on stopping the “Muscle Hamster.” I think this will be an explosive game for all key pieces in each offense. Stat prediction: 28 attempts 120 yards 1 TD along with 6 catches for 63 yards and 1 TD.

With nothing to lose, I think the Eagles will test out rookie Nick Foles. He has the tools to be a successful NFL QB; size, arm strength, presence etc… With DeSean Jackson out, let’s see if that frees up Jeremy Maclin and possibly Jason Avant. Last time Maclin saw the Bucs, he exploded for 142 yards on 6 catches with 2 TD’s. My stat prediction for Foles: 25-43 277 yards 2 TD’s 3 INT. Stat Prediction for Maclin: 5 receptions 94 yards 1 TD. Avant prediction: 7 receptions 72 yards.

Josh Freeman will have a big day at home. If you need a TE, pick up Dallas Clark (if available still). It seems like their receiving core is finally clicking. I start Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Heck, if you’re desperate, there are worse spot starts than Tiquan Underwood. Nothing like a desperate team facing a demoralized squad at home. Freeman stat prediction: 26-40 311 yards 3 TD’s and 1INT. Clark prediction: 5 receptions 40 yards and 1 TD. Jackson prediction: 11 receptions 122 yards. Mike Williams prediction: 4 receptions 80 yards 1 TD. Underwood prediction: 4 catches 49 yards.

 

 

Baltimore @ Washington:

The Ravens were embarrassed. Check that, humiliated by their bitter divisional foe; who I might add was starting an ancient QB (I see you Charlie Batch). How will they respond?

With a banged up Terrell Suggs, who will match the physicality of Alfred Morris? Who will contain Robert Griffin III? If you’re scratching your head over those propositions, trust me, you’re not alone.

I absolutely love Morris in this spot. Those who did their research before the season are reaping the benefits of Alfred’s domination. At home I think he has one of his best games of the season. The traditional defense style of the Ravens is not conducive to stopping the ‘Skins “Pistol” formations. With RG3 opening up lanes, there will be no telling how damaging Morris will be. Prediction: 24 attempts for 143 yards 2 TD’s along with 3 catches for 19 yards.

RG3 will have a day. Pierre Garcon is back in the mix; expect him to be located early and often. These two have nice chemistry for only playing in about 6 games together. Griffin III Stat prediction: 15-21 210 yards 2 TD’s along with 7 rushes for 50 yards. Garcon stat prediction: 9 receptions 82 yards and 1 TD.

In order for Baltimore to hang with Washington, they will HAVE to score. As I’ve noticed all season, even though Ray Rice is considered the focal point of the offense, Joe Flacco dictates whether they sink or swim.

The Redskins defense will have an emotional letdown after a high intensity Monday night game against the Giants. Flacco will throw the ball deep. With DeAngelo Hall shadowing Torrey Smith for the majority of the game, I like Anquan Boldin to work the middle of the field. I also like Dennis Pitta as a top 10 tight end. Flacco stat prediction: 22-38 327 yards 2 TD’s 1 INT. Rice stat prediction: 25 attempts for 94 yards 1 TD along with 6 receptions for 59 yards. Smith stat prediction: 4 receptions 77 yards. Boldin stat prediction:10 receptions 105 yards 1 TD. Pitta stat prediction: 3 receptions 50 yards 1 TD.

 

 

New Orleans @ New York Giants:

Big game at Met-Life Stadium. The Giants need this one to keep their heads above water in the division. The Saints are on life support for a wild card spot, one more loss and their season is over.

After one of his worst performances of his career (5 INT’s no TD’s) last week against the Falcons, Drew Brees is aware of the task ahead. He knows that only his best of the season will allow New Orleans to take down the defending champs in their own house. Stat prediction: 29-51 330 yards 2 TD’s 2 INT’s. Brees fights to the end but can’t seal the deal. I don’t think this is the game where Darren Sproles gets his game back. The Giants have a very deep and athletic defensive line that can contain him. Stat prediction: 3 rushes for 20 yards along with 6 receptions for 44 yards. Jimmy Graham will find the endzone. He is always a matchup disaster and will work the middle of the field and red zone effectively. Stat prediction: 8 Receptions 78 yards 2 TD’s.

Despite the loss in D.C. this past Monday, Eli Manning looks as if he’s regained his early season form. The Saints have one of the worst defenses in the league, and playing outside of their dome, I can see Manning doing damage. Keep in mind N.O.’s d-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s claim to fame is the SuperBowl title in 2008. With the Giants. There will be a familiarity of schemes; which can serve to help Eli audible at the line, as he does so well.  Stat Prediction: 28-39 318 yards 3 TD’s 1 INT.

Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Reuben Randel, Martellus Bennett. Giants have weapons. Eli can spread the ball around (especially on this Saints sieve-like defense). Out of this group though, I believe Bennett will outperform his mediocre projections. Bennett stat prediction: 7 receptions 90 yards 1 TD. Nicks has been hobbled the majority of the year, but as we’ve seen in the past, the closer to playoff time the more dynamic play of Hakeem. With Cruz whittling away at trust factor with Eli (leading the league in drops), Hakeem gets a bump in targets. Stat projection: 11 receptions 105 Yards 1 TD. Cruz will be efficient, stat projection: 6 receptions 55 yards 1 TD.

I don’t trust any of the running backs in this game. Obviously, if you have Ahmad Bradshaw, you’re starting him. I think he’ll underwhelm against a terrible rush defense but could find the endzone. Stat prediction: 15 attempts 54 yards 1 TD along with 4 catches for 34 yards. If I had to choose one Saints back, it would be Pierre Thomas, based solely on the fact that I think he’ll have goal line carries. Stat prediction: 13 rushes 68 yards 1 TD along with 3 receptions for 35 yards.