FantasySavvy 2016: Week 1 Film Review & Analysis

This article is a new addition to our site. In the past we have dabbled with this, but this season we plan on bringing this to you every single week. We will rewatch every single game from the previous week, looking at specific players, schemes, etc, so future predictions can be properly forecasted. This type of film review helped us identify players like Keenan Allen, Odell Beckham Jr. and Dion Lewis weeks prior to them being picked up on waiver wires. Our intention is to give you this superior insight so you can be a step ahead in your leagues. All the stats and advanced stats in the world are great, but there is nothing that can replace reality and the tape reveals this reality.

The first two or three weeks will be complimentary to our readers, but as we go on we will require a weekly or seasonal subscription in order to release this article to you. The weekly investment will be $10 and the Seasonal, which extends until week 16 will be $100. We know this information will truly be beneficial for your fantasy teams, helping to put you in a position to contend for your league’s SuperBowl. Please contact SteveDeAngelo@gmail.com if you are interested in either a weekly or seasonal subscription. A paypal account will be required to process. Going forward this article will be released by Friday Night.

Ok let’s get to the video tape, as the great Ed Reed once said “Trust the Tape”.

*For preview purposes, not all games from the previous week will be covered.

Carolina @ Denver

Biggest thing that stands out here is the performance of C.J. Anderson. The Gary Kubiak running system is back and Anderson has returned to his 2014 form. The run blocking was not only excellent, but Anderson made all the proper cuts and broke tackles looking in top form. With the Denver D so dominate keeping Denver in games and giving the offense a lot of opportunities, Anderson should be in for a big season.

Trevor Simien played smart for most of the game. He took what the defense gave him and ran when he needed to. However, there were a few throws that make you worry about him having some implosions in the future. His lack of arm strength is going to surely cause him to throw some bad interceptions. It will be interesting to see how he progresses and whether or not he can maintain the job throughout the year. Paxton Lynch and his big arm are waiting in the wings. In the meantime, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and even Virgil Green should produce, but don’t expect monster production. However it is good that at least there is something with potential at the QB position replacing Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.

Not much to say about Carolina other than they faced the best defense in the league. This offense will be fine. Kelvin Benjamin of 2016 will be much improved from the Kelvin Benjamin of 2014, which was his rookie season. A few reasons for this. Benjamin hands have improved, his knowledge of the offense has improved and the biggest reason for his future success will be that Cam Newton’s accuracy has improved dramatically. Cam used to overthrow the 6’5 Benjamin, now Cam can hit him on a line. Benjamin should be in for a big time season. Start sending offers while you can.

Trade For: C.J. Anderson, Kelvin Benjamin

Cincinnati @ NYJ

We will start with the Jets, and the two things that stick out most are Quincy Enunwa and the Jets running game. Enunwa not only excelled in Week 1, but he backed it up again on Thursday night with another good performance. The Jets are using him on reverses, screens and he already appears to be a favorite of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Enunwa displays excellent hands and body control and even with Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, I expect Enunwa to have a very productive season. 1000 yards and/or double-digit TD’s is not out of the question.

The other reason the Jets offense has gotten off to such a great start is the addition of Matt Forte. Forte has helped make this Jets offense completely legit. Also the offensive line and run design have been excellent, creating holes for Forte to run through. The usage for Forte thus far is concerning as he is on pace for over 400 carries, but obviously you expect that to start dwindling down at some point. This makes Bilal Powell, who has looked excellent in limited action an excellent addition and a must have a handcuff if you are a Forte owner.

Bengals will be brief this week. A.J. Green looks beastlyyyyyyyy, it will be impossible to trade for him at this point. Green could be at top 5 Fantasy producer this year. Be patient with Gio Bernard. Jeremy Hill had a nice TD run, but his overall usage will continue to hurt his value. Next we will look more into Tyler Boyd.

Trade for: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Matt Forte

Add/Trade: Quincy Enunwa, Bilal Powell

Oakland @ New Orleans

Latavius Murray ran well and look improved, but the Saints defense continues to leak holes and be atrocious overall.  Derek Carr, Crabtree and Amani Cooper will continue their upward swing as the Raiders offense will be legit again in 2016.

Saints rookie WR, Michael Thomas had a good first game and ran some nice routes. Brees, now with Thomas, Snead and a developed Cooks, looks to be in for a monster season. The Raiders defense looked unimpressive, but Drew Brees and Sean Payton have a history of making defenses look silly. Be patient with Mark Ingram, the TD’s will come.

Add: Michael Thomas

Tampa Bay @ ATL

Jameis Winston had some excellent throws to Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins and they finished those throws with some great catches. Winston and Evans have a chance to be the best QB/WR combo in the league this season. After an underwhelming year last season, Evans looks like he’s ready for a true breakout season.

On the Atlanta side, if you are a Devonta Freeman owner like me you have to be concerned. Not because of Freeman losing a step or not being a talented player, but the fact that Tevin Coleman played so much in the passing game. Coleman had 5 catches for 95 yards and spelled Freeman frequently. The tape still shows that Freeman is the better overall runner, but Freeman was such a huge weapon in the passing game for the Falcons last year and it looks like Coleman is going to cut into that production significantly. With all that said, Freeman should have another solid season, but at this point there is no way to expect his reception totals to come close to sniffing last year.

Trade for: Mike Evans

Green Bay @ Jacksonville

Eddie Lacy looks to be back in 2014 form. He looks nimble on his feet, explosive and back to breaking tackles. If you banked a rebound season for Lacy this year, it appears you hit the nail on the head. Also James Starks was hardly used in Week 1. Great news for Lacy Owners. Jordy Nelson looked OK, ran some good out routes, and as he continues this year he should only get more comfortable. Also if you didn’t know this already Jared Cook stinks, hopefully you did not draft him. Davante Adams may finally emerge as a solid #3 option for the Pack. Historically Rodgers has utilized and made successful three WR’s for the Pack, so Adams is someone to definitely take seriously this year. Ty Montgomery the 2nd year WR out of Stanford, is another guy to monitor.

T.J. Yeldon looks better thus far in his sophomore season. His running style reminds a bit of two-time NFL rushing leader Edgerrin James. He’s patient, hits holes, and churns yards. Yeldon, in this offense, should be in for a nice year. Ivory is banged up already and has been injury prone in his career, but even with Ivory returning, Yeldon will be the back in the passing game and will still be used around the goaline.

I have no issue with Blake Bortles. A lot of pundits were down on him to start the season, but I don’t see why. He has so much talent and is surrounded by talent, even more so than last year now with a healthy Julius Thomas and Marquis Lee, both of whom Bortles targeted often in week 1. Thomas looked like a favorite target of Bortles and I see this continuing all year. Lee will likely need a Hurns or Robinson injury as it appears he is 5th in the pecking order. But keep an eye on him.

Allen Hurns ran two great routes. One on a stop and go and another on a stick route, it was all Hurns creating the separation. Hurns appears to be a student of the game and I overlooked him, he is more talented than I originally had thought. You do worry if Thomas, Lee and the emergence of Yeldon overall in the passing game will hurt his value a bit more this season, but the talent is surely there.

Trade for: Julius Thomas, T.J. Yeldon, Eddie Lacy.

Cleveland @ Philly

Carson Wentz was impressive to me. Poise, confidence, accuracy, and solid decision-making. He had a couple of excellent throws. One was to Nelson Agohlor who beat Joe Haden off the line of scrimmage for a TD. Wentz threw a perfect ball. This obviously increases the prospects of not only Jordan Matthews, but Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. Agholor a first round draft pick last year, did nothing his rookie season, I think that changes this year. Not only does he look better, but he now appears to have a real QB throwing him the ball.

RG3 looked bad, Josh McCown returning will only help Barnridge, Duke Johnson, Terrelle Pryor, Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon when he returns. Things are looking up for the Browns offense. McCown looked comfortable in this offense last year and I expect them to get going this week against Baltimore.

Add: Nelson Agholor

Trade for: Gary Barnridge, Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz

Minnesota @ Tennessee

The Titans stacked the box against the Vikings and the Vikings weren’t very creative with how they got Adrian Peterson the ball causing Peterson to have a sub par game. Peterson looked fine as a runner, he just literally had nowhere to run. Be patient, Sam Bradford should help open things up at a bit. Stefon Diggs looked quick, running a bunch of out routes and aggressively working back to the ball. Shaun Hill and him had good chemistry, it will be interesting to see how he and Bradford work together, but Diggs looked solid.

Tajae Sharpe looks as good as advertised. He ran some nice slant routes, showed good burst and hands. He looks like he will be a top target of Marcus Mariota this year. Derrick Henry looked good in the passing game. He caught one screen pass where he crossed the field, stiffed armed Vikings LB Chad Greenway to the ground and broke a tackle, showing off his explosion and power. He was Ok in the running game. The Vikings shot gaps, but did take Henry down by shooting at his legs. I think Henry will adjust to that going forward as he has to realize that opponents will go low at his 6’3 frame. Henry is only going to improve. DeMarco Murray ran with power and looked good. The Titans ran some creative plays to get Murray open in the passing game and open lanes for him in the running game. The Titans should be a solid offense this year.

Add: Tajae Sharpe

Trade for: Derrick Henry

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Dennis Pitta is back. Flacco looked to him often and the past chemistry showed. Look for Pitta to be a solid TE this year. Neither Justin Forsett nor Terrance West were that impressive in the running game. Rookie Kenneth Dixon could easily take this job in a few weeks. Mike Wallace looks reborn in Baltimore. His speed was back on display as the Ravens used him on screens, reverses and down the field. Unlike Tannehill, Flacco has the arm to get Wallace the ball. He’s my bet to lead the Ravens in receiving this season. Breshard Perriman made a great catch early in the game and he is definitely a guy to monitor.  Steve Smith looked a bit slower and not as explosive as usual, remember when Kobe Bryant came back from his Achilles injury, he was never the same.

This is more of a take of the Jets game from Thursday, but Sammy Watkins is not healthy right now. It’s clear to see. The Bills would be smart to let the young man rest for a week or 2 before bringing him back. He does have 10 days to recover , so let’s see what the reports are next week about his surgically repaired foot.

San Diego @ Kansas City

Melvin Gordon looks much improved, at least after Week 1. He is running with more power, more decisiveness and actually broke some tackles and moved piles. These are things he rarely did last year. Danny Woodhead continues to look excellent and with Keenan Allen out again, should be PPR gold again in 2016. Allen’s replacement Tyrell Williams the 6’4 4.4 40 yard Dash prospect looks like has some potential. Rivers has historically favored big WR’s, (Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd) and Rivers likes to toss it up to these big guys. Even before Allen went out, the Chargers were using Williams as he had a 38 yard catch early in the 1st quarter. The guy runs like a deer and with his combination of size and speed he is someone to take seriously.

Spencer Ware had holes to run through, but he ran hard and broke some tackles. He was used extensively in the passing game by Captain Checkdown Alex Smith and that should only continue with Jamaal Charles out. Charcandrick West played a lot of snaps, but was rarely used. It may take Charles a good 6 weeks to get fully up and running so Ware should have continued value for some time.

Add: Tyrell Williams

Trade for: Danny Woodhead, Melvin Gordon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FantasySavvy 2016: Rookie RB Report

Rookie RB’s are not easy to predict, many times these guys come in extremely talented but it ends up taking them some time to adjust to the NFL game. Or sometimes they just completely flop. The list is vast of talented Rookie RB’s that were expected to do much, but did extremely little in the NFL. But at the same time, many find success from the jump. Colts RB Edgerrin  James led the league in rushing his rookie season back in 1999. Adrian Peterson jumped out the box right away and had a terrific year back in 2007. Also Clinton Portis in 2002, Mike Anderson in 2000 and Alfred Morris in 2012 all had excellent rookie seasons. Last year we had Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls have productive years. There are many different factors that contribute to a Rookie RB’s success. Opportunity in a great offense, speed, power, agility, patience, etc. A successful Rookie Runner usually has a couple of these attributes going for him. Below are the backs I think have the best chance to be successful this season and as they move forward in their NFL career.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry is my favorite RB of this rookie class. I feel he is going to be a very special player in this league. He does not have the opportunity that Ezekiel Elliot has playing behind that Dallas Offensive line and being what looks like the #1 RB, but I think Henry is the more talented runner. At 6’3 244 pounds, Henry, who I call “Orc” who were those monster beings in the Lord of the Rings series,  has a rare combination of Size and Speed. Yes he only ran a 4.5, but watch his game tape, he runs away from defenders because he has excellent burst and acceleration. He makes great cuts, can stiff arm defenders to the ground and break tackles with consistency. In Dynasty Leagues this guy is a must own player. Currently he is sharing time with/playing behind  DeMarco Murray and that obviously will hurt his value for the start of the season. But for where he is going, currently 7th Round ADP, I am willing to draft this guy all day long. I will probably own him in every one of my leagues. He is a special and truly unique talent. I can only draft on talent and hope the situation fully presents itself later. I want the most talented players on my team no matter what the case, and Henry fits the bill.

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys

This is everybody’s fantasy darling this year. In Early drafts, Elliot was going top 3, then top 5, but has consistently been a 1st round draft pick in most drafts. That is a lot to bank on a rookie. Playing behind that Dallas offensive line could he produce an enormous rookie year? Sure, but I am hesitant to take Elliott this high. There have been many backs who weren’t the most talented, but had excellent offensive lines and they in turn had excellent seasons. Elliot does run with some power, is patient, and knows how to hit holes. He is a pretty good receiving back, but his game tape doesn’t overly impress me.  Elliot was the beneficiary of some unbelievable blocking while at Ohio State, a lot of his runs were just straight breakaways, or just running through some gigantic holes. But Elliot definitely took advantage of those holes and now is running behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. There is no doubt he has great burst, but I am not impressed with tackle breaking ability or his agility.

I am just not willing to invest a 1st round pick on this Rookie RB. Elliot supposedly showed up to camp overweight and then had a hamstring injury that kept him from practicing, but he did play in last nights preseason game, looked pretty good and has another 2 weeks n change to get ready for Week 1. Alfred Morris has also played well running behind this line and is it possible he takes some Goal Line carries or maybe if Elliot has a slow start, Morris takes advantage. Darren McFadden is also looming. Everybody is so sure that Elliott is going to be the complete workhorse early and often, but I am not so sure. I am also not so sure he is going to produce at a high level early on. If Elliot was going in the 4th, 5th rounds I would likely be happy to take him, but because he’s going in the 1st round, I just can’t do it. You have to really wow me as a Rookie for me to take you in the 1st round of a Fantasy Draft and Elliott doesn’t truly wow me at all. Against I draft on talent first, not on situation. Elliot’s talent alone doesn’t justify a 1st round pick for me, despite the opportunity.

Josh Ferguson, Indianapolis Colts

Watch Ferguson play and he stands out on tape immediately. Incredibly fast and agile, this Kid has a chance to perform at a high level. He has struggled through two preseason games so far and also missed a block which is never a good sign, but the talent and situation both equate here. Frank Gore is 33 years old and everybody keeps talking Robert Turbin, but I’m not having it. For where Ferguson is going in drafts he’s worth a pick based on his extreme talent.

CJ Prosise and Alex Williams, Seattle Seahawks

How important is the running game to the Seattle Seahawks? Important enough that they drafted two Rookie Rb’s to go along with Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. I like both of these guys, Prosise is the shifty agile receiving back while Williams is the power guy like Marshawn Lynch was. Problem here is a very crowded backfield with the talented Rawls coming back soon and Christine Michael unexpectedly producing the way he is this preseason. If you are looking for a guy to draft first it would be Prosise because he could earn a 3rd down role right away. But this backfield is so crowded at the moment and the talent doesn’t justify it enough to get so crazy about these two.

Rob Kelley and Keith Marshall, Washington Redskins

Both of these guys are talented in their own right. Marshall ran a 4.3 40 and is extremely quick. Kelley, the undrafted rookie from Tulane, runs with both power and burst. Both stood out immediately to me on tape. Matt Jones flopped as the starter last year, so please believe that his job is not very secure, plus he’s already hurt right now. Kelley and Marshall were supposed to split carries in last nights preseason game, but Marshall got hurt early in the game, providing an opportunity for Kelley. He produced with 12 carries for over 50 yards and even had a nice block which is a great sign. Kelley is definitely a guy you can get with your last pick in your drafts at this point. Right now he would be ahead of Marshall, but that could change. Either way both of these guys are talented and deserve to be watched. Then again I was all over Matt Jones last year and he failed to produce so maybe I am a sucker for these talented Skins backs. But the Skins offense has vastly improved and chances are that ones of these guys is going to be a factor this season whether it be Jones, Kelley or Marshall.

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins

Do you remember his 95-yard kickoff return TD against Clemson in the National Championship game last year? Drake is a undeniably remarkable talent. He is Reggie Bush with a little less agility and speed but with more power and strength. Drake’s biggest knock is that he is often injured and is currently injured now for the Phins. Arian Foster did look good the other night and is the clear starter, but he has a lot of wear and tear and is very injury prone himself. Jay Ayjaji, Miami’s current backup has failed to impress. I am taking Drake, in an emerging young offense led by Ryan Tannehill, as a late round pick. I love this Kids talent and after all the heartache and injuries he’s experienced, you can’t help but root for him.

Jonathan Williams, Buffalo Bills

Williams runs with solid balance, power and a fair amount of speed. He has good vision and overall just looks like a solid RB. I think he becomes the clear handcuff to LeSean McCoy, especially after the nice TD run he had last night in the Bills 3rd preseason game. Reggie Bush is a shell of his former self and Mike Gillislee isn’t impressive. One note, he did get a DWI back in June, so how that affects him at one point this year is unknown. If you grab McCoy keep Williams in mind as last round handcuff or Week 1 or 2 pickup.

Kenneth Dixon, Baltimore Ravens

Dixon has been praised by teammates like Joe Flacco this preseason as he has flashed his talents. Dixon is a shifty, ferocious, well-rounded RB who is also excellent  at catching passes. The Ravens backfield is very crowded with Justin Forsett, Javorious Allen and Terrance West, but you can argue Dixon is the most talented of the bunch. Forsett is aging, Allen is OK, nothing special and West has failed to perform previously in Cleveland. Dixon is another solid late round pick or early FA pickup. The talent once again warrants heavy consideration, especially playing with an established QB like Joe Flacco.

Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos

Booker reminds me of Arian Foster with his one-cut gliding running style. He even does that little bow thing that Foster does. He doesn’t have the best speed but has good vision and runs with good balance. Booker can break tackles and catch passes out of the backfield. He is currently behind C.J. Anderson but has moved ahead of Ronnie Hillman. The Broncos Defense is going to keep this offense in a lot of games so gameflow projects well for the Broncos Running Backs. Booker is a talented runner who deserves late round consideration and is a solid handcuff to C.J. Anderson.

 

Any other Rookies not listed here such as DeAndre Washington, Jordan Howard, Wendall Smallwood I am not thrilled with and will not be drafting.

Stay Tuned for our WR Report.