FantasySavvy 2016: TE Tiers

Reed and Olsen join Gronk in the 1st Tier because of Gronk’s injury history. Delanie will keep it up and Kelce should only continue to get better. Ertz came on last year and I think he continues the production.

People are underrating Jason Witten, even with the Romo news, I like Witten again this year. Barnridge is talented but will Griffin get him the ball? Jessie James looks like the new Heath Miller, big target and Ben targeted him often in yesterdays preseason game.

The 4th Tier all consists of guys who are big question marks with big upside.

Watch out for Pats TE A.J. Derby, he’s talented and I think he produces at some point this year.

Does Dennis Pitta return this season? Stay tuned.

1st Tier

Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen

2nd Tier

Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce,

3rd Tier

Zach Ertz, Antonio Gates, Gary Barnridge, Jessie James, Jason Witten.

4th Tier

Tyler Eifert, Martellus Bennett, Jimmy Graham, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen

5th Tier

Austin Seferian Jenkins, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Will Tye, A.J. Derby, Julius Thomas

6th Tier

Charles Clay, Jace Amaro, Virgil Green, Zach Miller, Jordan Cameron

7th Tier

Dennis Pitta, Richard Rodgers, Clive Walford, Vance McDonald

Advertisements

FantasySavvy 2016: WR Tiers

Pretty much any of these WR’s in the first two tiers are ultra safe. Antonio Brown is pretty much the overall conensus #1 WR in PPR leagues. Julio and Beckham will be beasts almost every week. I favor Beckham a bit more because of Matt Ryan. The 3rd  & 4th tier are solid as well, with Mike Evans and Watkins having tremendous upside. But you could argue after the 4th tier questions start to arise. Thomas regressing? Can Baldwin keep up that TD production? Jeffrey stay healthy? Cobb rebound? Jordy healthy in his return?

RG3 or McCown whoever emerges as the QB when Gordon returns can just toss the ball up to that man and he will shine, we have seen it in the past and this preseason. Gordon will be a value pick.

I like the prospects of 2nd year WR’s Phillip Dorsett, Tyler Lockett, Kevin White and Sammie Coates. Quite even possibly Breshard Perriman if he can get back healthy soon. I also like Travis Benjamin’s situation in San Diego

My Favorite rookies are Michael Thomas, Josh Doctson, Will Fuller and Sterling Sheppard.

1st Tier

Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr.

2nd Tier

DeAndre Hokpins, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson

3rd Tier

Brandon Marshall, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans

4th Tier

Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen,  Jarvis Landry

5th Tier

Doug Baldwin, Demaryius Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffrey, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman

6th Tier

Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree

7th Tier

Tyler Lockett, DeSean Jackson, Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Josh Gordon, Allen Hurns,

Tier 8

John Brown, Tavon Austin, Steve Smith, Jordan Matthews, Travis Benjamin, Donte Moncrief

Tier 9 

Marvin Jones, Phillip Dorsett, Kevin White, Willie Snead, Michael Thomas, Devin Funchess, Devante Parker, Kenny Stills, Kamar Aiken, Vincent Jackson, Chris Hogan, Mike Wallace, Chris Conley, Ted Ginn Jr

Tier 10

Sammie Coates, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Boyd, Tajae Sharpe, Sterling Sheppard, Victor Cruz, Wil Fuller, Dorial Green-Beckham, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, Mohamed Sanu, Anquan Boldin, Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, Pierre Garcon, Marquise Lee, Kendall Wright, Malcolm Mitchell, Nelson Agholor

Tier 11

Markus Wheaton, Eli Rogers, Torrey Smith, Bruce Ellington, Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, Jaelen Strong, Charles Johnson, Jeff Janis, Davante Adams, Breshard Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Ty Montgomery, Quinton Patton, Robert Woods, Paul Richardson

Tier 12

Kenny Britt, Brandon LaFell, Jermaine Kearse, Brian Quick, Devin Smith, Danny Amendola, Andrew Hawkins, Seth Roberts, Aaron Dobson

FantasySavvy 2016: RB Tiers

I have Jamaal Charles and Le’Veon Bell in my 1st tier. Why not? Charles was on his way to becoming the best overall Fantasy RB last year before the injury and I think he will be fine despite coming back from his 2nd ACL surgery. Yes, Peterson, Gurley and Johnson may be safer, but Charles could match or outperform all of them. Same with Bell, when he returns in Week 4 he will start performing right away. The guy is still one of the most talented backs in the league and is a PPR machine.

The 2nd tier carries some question marks. This is why I am trying to get 2 of the backs in the 1st tier in most of my drafts. The RB pool is slim compared to the WR’s. How will Lacy bounce back after last season while sharing more of the carries with James Starks. Elliot is an unproven rookie, but he is running behind arguably the best offensive line in Football. This is Miller’s first time being the main back, can he handle it? Freeman has Coleman back in his shadow again and Martin has flopped before. Rawls is coming back from Injury and is only a 2nd year RB while McCoy has struggled with injuries as well. Some of these guys will hit tremendously, but some will flop. I think the safest are Ingram, Freeman, Martin and McCoy.

Danny Woodhead is a PPR staple year in and year out. But with Keenan Allen back he will catch less passes. Also Melvin Gordon possibly takes on a bigger role. Hyde is very talented, but Blaine Gabbert is his starting QB. Foster will be solid while healthy, but an injury is likely. C.J. Anderson I like to have a bounce back season.

I love Derrick Henry, I made my case in my Rookie RB report which you can read here. I think he becomes a Tier 1 RB at some point in his career. Langford is the starter, but I am not impressed with his talent.

I lost faith in Matt Jones and now he has some talented backs behind him with Rob Kelley and Keith Marshall. One of these guys I predict will take his job. Right now it looks like Kelley. Dion Lewis you can get late, stash on the IR and he could reap huge benefits if he returns by Week 8. Kenyon Drake’s talent is unquestionable and with Foster’s injury history he is a solid late pick or cheap auction purchase. Kenneth Dixon could be  Baltimore starter before years end.

1st Tier

Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, David Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell

2nd Tier

Lamar Miller, Ezekiel Elliot, Eddie Lacy, Mark Ingram, Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, Thomas Rawls,

3rd Tier

Danny Woodhead, C.J. Anderson, Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde, Giovani Bernard, Arian Foster

4th Tier

Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, Derrick Henry, DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Langford, Jeremy Hill, T.J. Yeldon

5th Tier

Chris Ivory, Melvin Gordon, Frank Gore, Rashad Jennings, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, James White, LeGarrette Blount, Justin Forsett

6th Tier

Matt Jones, Bilal Powell, Alfred Morris, James Starks, DeAngelo Williams, Theo Riddick, Charles Sims, Darren Sproles

7th Tier

Kenyon Drake, Devontae Booker, Kenneth Dixon, Christine Michael, C.J. Prosise, Spencer Ware, Andre Ellington, Josh Ferguson,  Keith Marshall, Dion Lewis, Rob Kelley, C.J. Spiller

8th Tier

Chris Johnson, Shane Vereen, Tim Hightower, Shaun Draughn, Benny Cunningham, Chris Thompson, Tevin Coleman, Javorius Allen, Terrance West, Paul Perkins, Jerrick Mckinnon, Alex Collins, Jonathan Williams, Darren McFadden, Charcandrick West

9th Tier

DeAndre Washington, Jay Ayaji, Cameron Artis-Payne, Wendall Smallwood, Jordan Howard, D.J. Foster, Andre Williams,

FantasySavvy 2016: QB Tiers

Rodgers had a rough year by his standards last season but with Jordy Nelson back, Randall Cobb back in his true role and Eddie Lacy back in shape, he should return to his normal self. Russell Wilson continues to get better and still has lots of talent around him. Last year he developed more with Doug Baldwin and has a emerging young WR with Tyler Lockett. Jimmy Graham will return soon and he also has talent with WR Paul Richardson and Jermaine Kearse. Cam is Cam, and gets Benjamin back this year.

Luck needs to stay healthy but also make less mistakes and play better than he did last year. He drops to tier 2 for me. Brady is in Tier 2 because when he returns he will instantly put up big numbers. Brees and Palmer will be great values in your auctions/drafts.

Bortles takes the biggest jump here coming of his high performing Sophomore season. Many experts say bust, but I don’t see it. Allen Robinson is a true #1 WR and Hurns gets the job done with Bortles. Marquis Lee also looks healthy this year and could be a nice weapon for them. This Jacksonville offense is emerging and I think Bortles has another solid season. He will be on a good amount of my teams.

Big Ben is still great but is getting older and hurt more often, so have some caution. Rivers will continue to be steady.

Tyrod Taylor had a lot of inconsistent performances last year with some big games. But I like consistency game in and game out and he didn’t really provide that. Romo drops to Tier 4 because he is such an injury risk and is aging. Kirk Cousins has Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson along with a good offensive mind in Jay Gruden. He should repeat last years performance.

Matt Ryan is underwhelming but still can put up decent numbers. As you can see I am not an RG3 believer. I could see him being benched or injured around Week 4 or 5. In the 5th tier, Mariota, Tannehill or Carr could make a big jump this season.

1st Tier

Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton

2nd Tier

Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer

3rd Tier

Big Ben, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, Phil Rivers

4th Tier

Matt Stafford, Tyrod Taylor, Tony Romo, Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston,

5th Tier

Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan

6th Tier

Joe Flacco, Alex Smith,

7th Tier

RG3, Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Trevor Siemian, Blaine Gabbert, Paxton Lynch

8th Tier

Jared Goff, Jimmy Garapulo, Case Keenum, Dak Prescott, Josh McCown

FantasySavvy 2016: Rookie RB Report

Rookie RB’s are not easy to predict, many times these guys come in extremely talented but it ends up taking them some time to adjust to the NFL game. Or sometimes they just completely flop. The list is vast of talented Rookie RB’s that were expected to do much, but did extremely little in the NFL. But at the same time, many find success from the jump. Colts RB Edgerrin  James led the league in rushing his rookie season back in 1999. Adrian Peterson jumped out the box right away and had a terrific year back in 2007. Also Clinton Portis in 2002, Mike Anderson in 2000 and Alfred Morris in 2012 all had excellent rookie seasons. Last year we had Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Thomas Rawls have productive years. There are many different factors that contribute to a Rookie RB’s success. Opportunity in a great offense, speed, power, agility, patience, etc. A successful Rookie Runner usually has a couple of these attributes going for him. Below are the backs I think have the best chance to be successful this season and as they move forward in their NFL career.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry is my favorite RB of this rookie class. I feel he is going to be a very special player in this league. He does not have the opportunity that Ezekiel Elliot has playing behind that Dallas Offensive line and being what looks like the #1 RB, but I think Henry is the more talented runner. At 6’3 244 pounds, Henry, who I call “Orc” who were those monster beings in the Lord of the Rings series,  has a rare combination of Size and Speed. Yes he only ran a 4.5, but watch his game tape, he runs away from defenders because he has excellent burst and acceleration. He makes great cuts, can stiff arm defenders to the ground and break tackles with consistency. In Dynasty Leagues this guy is a must own player. Currently he is sharing time with/playing behind  DeMarco Murray and that obviously will hurt his value for the start of the season. But for where he is going, currently 7th Round ADP, I am willing to draft this guy all day long. I will probably own him in every one of my leagues. He is a special and truly unique talent. I can only draft on talent and hope the situation fully presents itself later. I want the most talented players on my team no matter what the case, and Henry fits the bill.

Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys

This is everybody’s fantasy darling this year. In Early drafts, Elliot was going top 3, then top 5, but has consistently been a 1st round draft pick in most drafts. That is a lot to bank on a rookie. Playing behind that Dallas offensive line could he produce an enormous rookie year? Sure, but I am hesitant to take Elliott this high. There have been many backs who weren’t the most talented, but had excellent offensive lines and they in turn had excellent seasons. Elliot does run with some power, is patient, and knows how to hit holes. He is a pretty good receiving back, but his game tape doesn’t overly impress me.  Elliot was the beneficiary of some unbelievable blocking while at Ohio State, a lot of his runs were just straight breakaways, or just running through some gigantic holes. But Elliot definitely took advantage of those holes and now is running behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. There is no doubt he has great burst, but I am not impressed with tackle breaking ability or his agility.

I am just not willing to invest a 1st round pick on this Rookie RB. Elliot supposedly showed up to camp overweight and then had a hamstring injury that kept him from practicing, but he did play in last nights preseason game, looked pretty good and has another 2 weeks n change to get ready for Week 1. Alfred Morris has also played well running behind this line and is it possible he takes some Goal Line carries or maybe if Elliot has a slow start, Morris takes advantage. Darren McFadden is also looming. Everybody is so sure that Elliott is going to be the complete workhorse early and often, but I am not so sure. I am also not so sure he is going to produce at a high level early on. If Elliot was going in the 4th, 5th rounds I would likely be happy to take him, but because he’s going in the 1st round, I just can’t do it. You have to really wow me as a Rookie for me to take you in the 1st round of a Fantasy Draft and Elliott doesn’t truly wow me at all. Against I draft on talent first, not on situation. Elliot’s talent alone doesn’t justify a 1st round pick for me, despite the opportunity.

Josh Ferguson, Indianapolis Colts

Watch Ferguson play and he stands out on tape immediately. Incredibly fast and agile, this Kid has a chance to perform at a high level. He has struggled through two preseason games so far and also missed a block which is never a good sign, but the talent and situation both equate here. Frank Gore is 33 years old and everybody keeps talking Robert Turbin, but I’m not having it. For where Ferguson is going in drafts he’s worth a pick based on his extreme talent.

CJ Prosise and Alex Williams, Seattle Seahawks

How important is the running game to the Seattle Seahawks? Important enough that they drafted two Rookie Rb’s to go along with Thomas Rawls and Christine Michael. I like both of these guys, Prosise is the shifty agile receiving back while Williams is the power guy like Marshawn Lynch was. Problem here is a very crowded backfield with the talented Rawls coming back soon and Christine Michael unexpectedly producing the way he is this preseason. If you are looking for a guy to draft first it would be Prosise because he could earn a 3rd down role right away. But this backfield is so crowded at the moment and the talent doesn’t justify it enough to get so crazy about these two.

Rob Kelley and Keith Marshall, Washington Redskins

Both of these guys are talented in their own right. Marshall ran a 4.3 40 and is extremely quick. Kelley, the undrafted rookie from Tulane, runs with both power and burst. Both stood out immediately to me on tape. Matt Jones flopped as the starter last year, so please believe that his job is not very secure, plus he’s already hurt right now. Kelley and Marshall were supposed to split carries in last nights preseason game, but Marshall got hurt early in the game, providing an opportunity for Kelley. He produced with 12 carries for over 50 yards and even had a nice block which is a great sign. Kelley is definitely a guy you can get with your last pick in your drafts at this point. Right now he would be ahead of Marshall, but that could change. Either way both of these guys are talented and deserve to be watched. Then again I was all over Matt Jones last year and he failed to produce so maybe I am a sucker for these talented Skins backs. But the Skins offense has vastly improved and chances are that ones of these guys is going to be a factor this season whether it be Jones, Kelley or Marshall.

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins

Do you remember his 95-yard kickoff return TD against Clemson in the National Championship game last year? Drake is a undeniably remarkable talent. He is Reggie Bush with a little less agility and speed but with more power and strength. Drake’s biggest knock is that he is often injured and is currently injured now for the Phins. Arian Foster did look good the other night and is the clear starter, but he has a lot of wear and tear and is very injury prone himself. Jay Ayjaji, Miami’s current backup has failed to impress. I am taking Drake, in an emerging young offense led by Ryan Tannehill, as a late round pick. I love this Kids talent and after all the heartache and injuries he’s experienced, you can’t help but root for him.

Jonathan Williams, Buffalo Bills

Williams runs with solid balance, power and a fair amount of speed. He has good vision and overall just looks like a solid RB. I think he becomes the clear handcuff to LeSean McCoy, especially after the nice TD run he had last night in the Bills 3rd preseason game. Reggie Bush is a shell of his former self and Mike Gillislee isn’t impressive. One note, he did get a DWI back in June, so how that affects him at one point this year is unknown. If you grab McCoy keep Williams in mind as last round handcuff or Week 1 or 2 pickup.

Kenneth Dixon, Baltimore Ravens

Dixon has been praised by teammates like Joe Flacco this preseason as he has flashed his talents. Dixon is a shifty, ferocious, well-rounded RB who is also excellent  at catching passes. The Ravens backfield is very crowded with Justin Forsett, Javorious Allen and Terrance West, but you can argue Dixon is the most talented of the bunch. Forsett is aging, Allen is OK, nothing special and West has failed to perform previously in Cleveland. Dixon is another solid late round pick or early FA pickup. The talent once again warrants heavy consideration, especially playing with an established QB like Joe Flacco.

Devontae Booker, Denver Broncos

Booker reminds me of Arian Foster with his one-cut gliding running style. He even does that little bow thing that Foster does. He doesn’t have the best speed but has good vision and runs with good balance. Booker can break tackles and catch passes out of the backfield. He is currently behind C.J. Anderson but has moved ahead of Ronnie Hillman. The Broncos Defense is going to keep this offense in a lot of games so gameflow projects well for the Broncos Running Backs. Booker is a talented runner who deserves late round consideration and is a solid handcuff to C.J. Anderson.

 

Any other Rookies not listed here such as DeAndre Washington, Jordan Howard, Wendall Smallwood I am not thrilled with and will not be drafting.

Stay Tuned for our WR Report.

 

FantasySavvy 2015: TE Tiers

TE Tiers

Graham looked to have fairly good chemistry with Wilson in the preseason. Forget the blocking stats, it’s preseason, Graham will be running more routes once the season starts. That said Greg Olsen could be the safer option. Kelce’s talent is there, maybe with the emergence of a 2nd threat in Maclin, and more targets he fulfills his potential. I would bank on it.

Jordan Cameron has most upside of next group, I don’t trust Martellus Bennett. Gates is worth taking late and stashing for Week 5 arrival.

Take a shot on Eric Ebron, Jordan Reed, Josh Hill and Richard Rodgers in the later rounds.

Peyton Manning loves the tight end, but will it be Owen Daniels? Maybe, he has better shot than Virgil Green.

Max Williams has a lot of talent, and Flacco doesn’t have many options.

Tier 1

Rob Gronkowski

Tier 2

Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen

Tier 3

Martellus Bennett, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Antonio Gates

Tier 4

Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, Dwayne Allen, Kyle Rudolph, Larry Donnell

Tier 5 

Heath Miller, Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, Eric Ebron, Delanie Walker, Josh Hill, Richard Rodgers, Vernon Davis, Mychal Rivera,

Tier 6

Maxx Williams, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Charles Clay, Austin Seferaian-Jenkins, Virgil Green

Tier 7

Rob Housler, Jacob Tamme, Gavin Escobar, Luke Wilson, Garrett Graham, Tim Wright

FantasySavvy 2015: WR Tiers

WR Tiers

Calvin could easily be the #1 Fantasy WR again, but it’s doubtful because he is usually missing a few games a year and Matt Stafford is just too erratic. Jeremy Maclin is being undervalued to me. I think he gets a ton of catches with Smith. Edelman is also being undervalued, especially now with Brady reportedly back for Week 1, I think he could be in for a career year. Edelman continues  to get better and better.

Jordan Matthews may be going a little high, will see, Agholor could be the go to guy in the offense. Amari Cooper could be the next big thing in Oakland. He is a pure receiver.

Perriman, Parker are two rookies who are going late and still could have big impacts this year. Stevie Johnson will revive his career with Philip Rivers, the best QB he’s ever played with.

I like Ty Montgomery to emerge as the #3 in Green Bay, Green-Beckham, Funchess and Dorsett could all have instant impact. I like Dorsett the most, since he should take that 3 spot in Indy.

Don’t sleep on Sammie Coates, reports are terrible on him coming out of training camp, but he arguably is better than Markus Wheaton. He reminds me of Randy Moss a bit. Can Cordarrelle Patterson revive his hype? Probably not, but for your last pick, there is a whole lot of potential still there.

Kenny Bell ,Tampa Bay is an ultra sleeper, so much talent, just needs some burn and I think he will succeed. It may take him 2 to 3 years though. Also watch out for Tyler Lockett, he could be Green Bay’s version of Randall Cobb in a few years.

Tier 1

Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Demaryious Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones

Tier 2

Calvin Johnson, A.J Green, Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton

Tier 3

Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffrey

Tier 4

Jordan Matthews, Andre Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall,

Tier 5

Amari Cooper, Charles Johnson, Golden Tate, Nelson Agholor, Jarvis Landry, Martavis Bryant, Davante Adams

Tier 6

Allen Robinson, Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, John Brown, Kendall Wright, Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson, Keenan Allen, Markus Wheaton

Tier 7

Marques Colston, Eric Decker, Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith, Brandon LaFell, Reggie Wayne, Stevie Johnson, Davante Parker, Terrance Williams, Breshard Perriman, Marquess Wilson

Tier 8

Victor Cruz, Dorial Green-Beckham, Doug Baldwin, Ty Montgomery, Brian Quick, Devin Funchess, Phillip Dorsett, Pierre Garcon, Cole Beasley, Brandon Coleman, Percy Harvin, Philly Brown,

Tier 9

Cody Latimer, Donte Moncrief, Malcom Floyd, Marvin Jones, Mohammad Sanu, Allen Hurns, Cecil Shorts, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Bell, Cordarrelle Patterson, Albert Wilson, Ruben Randle, James Jones, Sammie Coates, Tyler Lockett

Tier 10

Justin Hunter, Andrew Hawkins, Stedman Bailey, Jermaine Kearse, Brian Hartline, Robert Woods, Eddie Royal, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola, Devin Hester, Jerricho Cotchery, Jeff Janis, Andre Holmes

Tier 11

Kenny Britt, Jalen Strong, Justin Hardy, Marlon Brown, Kamar Aiken, Ace Sanders, Rod Streater, Quinton Patton