We are almost a 1/4 of the way through the 2021 NFL season and things are still forming and settling into place. Dallas looks to finally have a good defense to go along with their offense, the Chiefs look beatable, Jon Gruden has the Raiders off to a hot start once again, and Jets have been the Same Ol’ Jets. A lot more Football to be played and we can expect a lot more change before things finally start to settle. In the meantime, we will navigate through this NFL season, watch as much as possible, collect information and do our very best to deliver on our NFL Best Bets. On to Week 4!
Week 4 Picks
Cowboys -4, Under 51.5
Sam Darnold has certainly been playing well through his first three weeks as a Carolina Panther, but I think this is the week he falls back down to earth. The Cowboys defense has been playing fast, flying all over the field, led by the youngsters Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn has this defense playing as a sound, cohesive unit. Dallas is a true contender and I believe they will cover the four point against the undefeated Panthers. The Panthers also have a fast, well-schemed defense and with these two defenses on the field, I like the game to fall under the total.
Vikings/Browns Over 51.5
The Vikings are seemingly playing in shootouts every week as their three games have averaged 55 points so far. The Browns also have allowed an average of 27 points against the Chiefs and Texans. Neither Defense is a powerhouse and both offenses have offensive weapons all over the field. Expect a close back and forth shootout in Minnesota.
Bills -17, Over 47
17 points is a rarity spread in the NFL and it’s always tough to back the favorite in this spot, but in this case, it makes sense. The Bills have covered that spread in their past two games beating the WFT 43-21 and the Dolphins 35-0. Now they get an inferior opponent in the Texans who are led by a Rookie Quarterback in Davis Mills. Look for Josh Allen to smash once again and for the Bills to put up close to 40 points.
The Giants have been the easy team to pick on so far this year, with everyone clowning Joe Judge’s practice habits and Dave Gettleman’s draft selections. However they’ve played two nait-biting games the last two weeks and if it wasn’t for a Dexter Lawrence offsides and an Adoree Jackson dropped interception, this team would be 2-1 instead of 1-2. The Saints smacked the Packers at home, lost embarrassingly to Carolina before bouncing back last weekend in Foxboro against the Pats. The Giants may very well be 0-4 after this game, but I think they will play well enough to stay within the number.
Cardinals/Rams Over 54.5
Both teams come into this game 3-0 in this NFC West matchup. The Cardinals are averaging 34 points a game while the Rams are averaging 31. If Carson Wentz can put up 24 points on the Rams, then Kyler Murray can do the same if not more. Likewise, if Kirk Cousins can put up 33 points on the Rams he should be able to do something similar. Expect a shootout with a lot of big plays.
Is Russell Wilson going to lose three straight games? Doubtful. In what is now his 10th season, Wilson has never lost three straight and we don’t expect it here. If he does, at least he can cry on Ciara’s shoulder.
Sunday Night Football
Bucs -7, Under 49.5
Tom Brady returning to New England has been the story of the week. Will Belichick have a few tricks up his sleeve to fool Brady and pull out a win? Mac Jones played well in his first two games only to fall apart last week vs the Saints. The Bucs defense has been banged up in the secondary but they still have a strong front seven, that is capable enough to slow down this Patriots running game and disrupt Jones in the passing game. The Saints beat the Patriots 28-13 last week in Foxboro, the Bucs should win in a similar fashion.
Monday Night Football
Raiders/Chargers Over 51.5
Derek Carr is having the best start of his career throwing for six touchdowns and 1,200 yards through three games. Justin Herbert also has had a good start to this sophomore season throwing for six touchdowns himself. Mike Williams is breaking out and is on his way to having a career season. For the Raiders, Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs are emerging as playmakers alongside Darren Waller. A lot of offensive prowess in this game. Monday Night should be a great one in LA. Take the over.
Player Props (BetUS)
Washington @ Atlanta
Matt Ryan over 263.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Matt Ryan Over 1.5 TD passes (-115)
Calvin Ridley Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kyle Pitts Over .5 Receiving TD’s (+170)
Terry McClaurin over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
Terry McClaurin Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)
Detroit @ Chicago
D’Andre Swift over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
D’Andre Swift Over.5 Rushing TD (+170)
Jamaal Williams Over .5 Rushing TD (+235)
David Montgomery Over 74.5 Rushing yards (-115)
David Montgomery Over .5 Rushing TD (+140)
Tennessee @ NY Jets
Derrick Henry Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)
Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Receiving yards (-115)
Cleveland @ Minnesota
Kareem Hunt Over .5 Rushing TD (+170)
Kareem Hut Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)
Kareem Hunt Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odell Beckham Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odell Beckham Over .5 Receiving TD (+140)
Tyler Conklin Over 3.5 Receptions (+105)
Tyler Conklin Over 30.5 Receptions (-115)
Adam Thielen Over.5 Recieving TD (+120)
Indianapolis @ Miami
Jonathan Taylor Over.5 Rushing TD (+150)
Mike Gesicki Over 3.5 Receptions (+115)
Mike Gesicki Over 3.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Carolina @ Dallas
Sam Darnold Under 268.5 Yards Passing (-115)
Houston @ Buffalo
Josh Allen Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+110)
Josh Allen Over 319.5 Passing & Rushing Yards (-115)
Zack Moss Over.5 Rushing TD’s (+200)
Sleepers of the Week
In fantasy football you need to think ahead, playing chess not checkers. If you have any waste on your roster you can cut or have an IR spot you can utilize you need to take advantage of that. That could mean picking up a backup running back or wide receiver just in case of an injury or grabbing a player that is returning from the IR in a few weeks. It could also mean grabbing a player who is buried on the depth chart, forgotten about, who may be getting an opportunity in the upcoming week(s). Don’t get stale, think outside the box and stay ahead of your opponents and the industry.
Tyler Johnson, TB, WR
Johnson filled in admirably for Antonio Brown last week finishing with three catches for 63 yards on six targets. Brown returns this week, but if any of the Bucs starting WR’s miss time in the future, Johnson is a must add, especially with teammate Scotty Miller on the IR.
Olamide Zaccheaus, ATL, WR
Zaccheaus has flashed in the past and last week finished with three catches for 33 yards and a touchdown. Zaccheaus is a smart, quick, crafty route runner who is a capable player in this league. With fellow WR, Justin Gage, battling injury, look for Zaccheaus to step up and possibly be a consistent option the rest of the season.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Giants
Toney isn’t a sleeper as he was a 1st round pick this year, but he sure has a lot of haters and doubters. Many believe Toney was an awful 1st round pick who will never pan out as a wide receiver in the NFL. Toney will get an opportunity this week with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out. Toney flashed on his two catches last week juking out a couple of defenders. Toney will be playing close to his hometown this weekend, so let’s see if he can make the most of his opportunity and be a weapon for the Giants for the rest of the season.
Jaret Patterson, RB, Redskins, Amari Rodgers, WR, Green Bay
We listed both of these players last week and now with Antonio Gibson battling a shin injury and Marquez Valdes-Scantling OUT this week, both may get an opportunity to display their talent. Worth an add if you have some trash to drop.
Thanks for reading, all the best this week. You can follow me on Twitter @FantasySavvy