Category Archives: Fantasy Matchups (Game Previews)

by | December 7, 2012 · 11:26 pm

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 14 Fantasy Five (Playoff Edition)

By: Alex Schoenfeld

The first round of the playoffs is here. For those who are lucky enough to still have a heartbeat feast your eyes on the fantasy five.

Dallas @ Cincinnati:

Usually, when discussing anything Bengals, we start with AJ Green. Not this week. Here’s a question for you football buffs: What do Corey Dillon and BenJarvus Green-Ellis have in common? Easy right? Both played for the Patriots. What I bet you didn’t know, is that “The Law Firm” has run for 100+ yards in his past 3 games; making him the first Bengals back since (yep, that’s right) Corey Dillon (circa 1999) to put up such numbers. Can he continue this pace against a porous Cowboys run defense? He’s got my vote. My stat prediction: 26 attempts for 106 yards, 1 TD along with 4 catches for 19 yards.

Keeping with our running back theme, DeMarco Murray had a nice game against Philadelphia last week (who hasn’t?) with 23 attempts for 83 yards and a score. So much for Garrett’s plan to ease him back into a normal workload. Murray is angry. Missing the majority of the season with a bum foot has him mad at the world, so expect hard “hit you before you hit me” type runs. Don’t overthink this one; he’s a top 10 RB play. My stat prediction: 18 attempts for 88 yards and 5 catches for 50 yards and a rec TD.

AJ versus Dez. Green is the better option but I like them both to find the endzone. My stat prediction: AJ: 10 receptions for 115 yards and a TD. DB: 6 Receptions for 77 yards and a TD. Offensively, both of these teams are hitting their stride; finding that “oh so difficult” balance between the run and passing game.

I anticipate sporadic quarterback play in this game. Tony Romo should have the better day of the two, but don’t discount Andy Dalton and his ability to find AJ deep. My prediction: Romo: 23-40 270 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s. Dalton 18-27 230 yards 2 TD’s 1INT.

 

 

Chicago @ Minnesota:

Adrian Peterson. Need I say more? This guy is NOT human. If Fox’s robot “Cleatus” actually played on Sunday’s, his number would be 28, his team the Vikings and the name would be Peterson. With Urlacher already declared out for the game (and possibly the remainder of the regular season) expect AP to gash the normally stout Bears defense. This is a do or die game for the Vikings so expect desperation. Stat prediction: 30 attempts for 154 yards and 1 TD along with 4 catches for 27 yards.

With teams focusing more of their defensive strategies to contain Brandon Marshall, we should see opportunity for Matt Forte. Forte is a perfect example of my “law of averages” theory. He has had a solid season, but truly underwhelmed projections until this point. I predict BIG receiving numbers for Forte from this week out. My stat prediction: 18 rush for 70 yards and 8 receptions for 85 yards and 1 TD.

Fantasy favorite Percy Harvin is on IR. We all know his ability, and in the same breath, we know his propensity for injury.This hurts many fantasy teams, but owners can’t say they weren’t warned. Don’t get cute with Jerome Simpson. If there’s any viable receiving option for Minnesota, it’s Rudolph or Jarius Wright. Of course, these are complete lottery tickets, so owners beware. Rudolph has been hot of late however.

We thought the big and physical secondary play of the Seahawks would limit Brandon Marshall. Mark that under the list of “things that DIDN’T happen” last week. He did everything but find the endzone. We know he’s a PPR freak, but the yards came with it this time (165). He cut up the Vikings secondary two weeks ago for a line of 12 catches for 92 yards. I don’t think he will have 17 targets like he did in the previous match-up, but I do expect him to find pay dirt. Stat prediction: 9 receptions for 95 yards and 2 TD’s.

Quarterback play in this game should be lopsided. I like Jay Cutler to keep his playoff push focus up against a susceptible Viking’s pass D. Stat prediction: 21-30 288 yards and 3 TD’s 2INT.

Do not, I repeat, DO NOT even sniff Christian Ponder. Over the past seven weeks, he’s thrown for 76 less yards than AP has ran for over that span. He couldn’t take advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable defense, what makes you think he can produce against arguably the best? Stat prediction: 14-29 215 yards 2 INT’s.

 

 

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

The secret’s out. Bryce Brown will hurt you. Now that opponents know what he’s capable of, can they stop him? If any team in the league can, it would be the Buccaneers. Their stingy run D only allows a mere 82 yards per game. The only two players in the league than broke the century rushing mark against the Bucs run defense are Adrian Peterson and Alfred Morris. But I still like Brown. Stat Prediction: 18 attempts for 70 yards 1 TD along with 5 catches for 61 yards (plus 1 fumble).

Rookie wall? What rookie wall? Doug Martin has been great this year. Owners who took a chance with him are being rewarded greatly for their intuition. Philadelphia has quit on their season. This means that “they aren’t who we thought they were” players in DeMeco Ryans and Nnamdi Asomugha won’t be risking next year’s health on stopping the “Muscle Hamster.” I think this will be an explosive game for all key pieces in each offense. Stat prediction: 28 attempts 120 yards 1 TD along with 6 catches for 63 yards and 1 TD.

With nothing to lose, I think the Eagles will test out rookie Nick Foles. He has the tools to be a successful NFL QB; size, arm strength, presence etc… With DeSean Jackson out, let’s see if that frees up Jeremy Maclin and possibly Jason Avant. Last time Maclin saw the Bucs, he exploded for 142 yards on 6 catches with 2 TD’s. My stat prediction for Foles: 25-43 277 yards 2 TD’s 3 INT. Stat Prediction for Maclin: 5 receptions 94 yards 1 TD. Avant prediction: 7 receptions 72 yards.

Josh Freeman will have a big day at home. If you need a TE, pick up Dallas Clark (if available still). It seems like their receiving core is finally clicking. I start Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Heck, if you’re desperate, there are worse spot starts than Tiquan Underwood. Nothing like a desperate team facing a demoralized squad at home. Freeman stat prediction: 26-40 311 yards 3 TD’s and 1INT. Clark prediction: 5 receptions 40 yards and 1 TD. Jackson prediction: 11 receptions 122 yards. Mike Williams prediction: 4 receptions 80 yards 1 TD. Underwood prediction: 4 catches 49 yards.

 

 

Baltimore @ Washington:

The Ravens were embarrassed. Check that, humiliated by their bitter divisional foe; who I might add was starting an ancient QB (I see you Charlie Batch). How will they respond?

With a banged up Terrell Suggs, who will match the physicality of Alfred Morris? Who will contain Robert Griffin III? If you’re scratching your head over those propositions, trust me, you’re not alone.

I absolutely love Morris in this spot. Those who did their research before the season are reaping the benefits of Alfred’s domination. At home I think he has one of his best games of the season. The traditional defense style of the Ravens is not conducive to stopping the ‘Skins “Pistol” formations. With RG3 opening up lanes, there will be no telling how damaging Morris will be. Prediction: 24 attempts for 143 yards 2 TD’s along with 3 catches for 19 yards.

RG3 will have a day. Pierre Garcon is back in the mix; expect him to be located early and often. These two have nice chemistry for only playing in about 6 games together. Griffin III Stat prediction: 15-21 210 yards 2 TD’s along with 7 rushes for 50 yards. Garcon stat prediction: 9 receptions 82 yards and 1 TD.

In order for Baltimore to hang with Washington, they will HAVE to score. As I’ve noticed all season, even though Ray Rice is considered the focal point of the offense, Joe Flacco dictates whether they sink or swim.

The Redskins defense will have an emotional letdown after a high intensity Monday night game against the Giants. Flacco will throw the ball deep. With DeAngelo Hall shadowing Torrey Smith for the majority of the game, I like Anquan Boldin to work the middle of the field. I also like Dennis Pitta as a top 10 tight end. Flacco stat prediction: 22-38 327 yards 2 TD’s 1 INT. Rice stat prediction: 25 attempts for 94 yards 1 TD along with 6 receptions for 59 yards. Smith stat prediction: 4 receptions 77 yards. Boldin stat prediction:10 receptions 105 yards 1 TD. Pitta stat prediction: 3 receptions 50 yards 1 TD.

 

 

New Orleans @ New York Giants:

Big game at Met-Life Stadium. The Giants need this one to keep their heads above water in the division. The Saints are on life support for a wild card spot, one more loss and their season is over.

After one of his worst performances of his career (5 INT’s no TD’s) last week against the Falcons, Drew Brees is aware of the task ahead. He knows that only his best of the season will allow New Orleans to take down the defending champs in their own house. Stat prediction: 29-51 330 yards 2 TD’s 2 INT’s. Brees fights to the end but can’t seal the deal. I don’t think this is the game where Darren Sproles gets his game back. The Giants have a very deep and athletic defensive line that can contain him. Stat prediction: 3 rushes for 20 yards along with 6 receptions for 44 yards. Jimmy Graham will find the endzone. He is always a matchup disaster and will work the middle of the field and red zone effectively. Stat prediction: 8 Receptions 78 yards 2 TD’s.

Despite the loss in D.C. this past Monday, Eli Manning looks as if he’s regained his early season form. The Saints have one of the worst defenses in the league, and playing outside of their dome, I can see Manning doing damage. Keep in mind N.O.’s d-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s claim to fame is the SuperBowl title in 2008. With the Giants. There will be a familiarity of schemes; which can serve to help Eli audible at the line, as he does so well.  Stat Prediction: 28-39 318 yards 3 TD’s 1 INT.

Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Reuben Randel, Martellus Bennett. Giants have weapons. Eli can spread the ball around (especially on this Saints sieve-like defense). Out of this group though, I believe Bennett will outperform his mediocre projections. Bennett stat prediction: 7 receptions 90 yards 1 TD. Nicks has been hobbled the majority of the year, but as we’ve seen in the past, the closer to playoff time the more dynamic play of Hakeem. With Cruz whittling away at trust factor with Eli (leading the league in drops), Hakeem gets a bump in targets. Stat projection: 11 receptions 105 Yards 1 TD. Cruz will be efficient, stat projection: 6 receptions 55 yards 1 TD.

I don’t trust any of the running backs in this game. Obviously, if you have Ahmad Bradshaw, you’re starting him. I think he’ll underwhelm against a terrible rush defense but could find the endzone. Stat prediction: 15 attempts 54 yards 1 TD along with 4 catches for 34 yards. If I had to choose one Saints back, it would be Pierre Thomas, based solely on the fact that I think he’ll have goal line carries. Stat prediction: 13 rushes 68 yards 1 TD along with 3 receptions for 35 yards.

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by | November 10, 2012 · 6:21 pm

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 10, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis 

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks

-If you’re desperate for a bye week QB, I’d give Russell Wilson a look. The Jets defense hasn’t been particularly good this year and Wilson’s mobility will give the Jets trouble because their linebackers are painfully slow. If you are in NEED of a QB this week, Wilson may not be a bad play.

-Jeremy Kerley will be a decent WR2/Flex play this week. While I do think Kerley is a solid player, it’s less about him and more about the disarray of the Jets offense. Someone has to move the ball. The Jets won’t be able to run the ball and Stephen Hill and Chaz Schillens scare exactly nobody. Start Kerley with confidence, even against Seattle’s secondary.

-Start Dustin Keller. (see: Why you should start Kerley). And also, he has a rapport with Sanchez.

-Keep an eye on Golden Tate. He seems to be coming around with Wilson. I’m not necessarily putting this here for this week, but generally.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

-Sit Michael Vick. If you have any inkling on starting him this week, don’t do it. Dallas has a lot of problems but their pass defense is their biggest strength. And Philly’s offensive line is a trainwreck.

-Sit Jeremy Maclin. Any potential return isn’t worth the risk at this point.

-Don’t even bother starting any of Dallas’ running backs unless you are desperate.

-Philadelphia’s pass defense isn’t good. Tony Romo has had two decent weeks in a row fantasy wise. I think he follows it with a third. Start him comfortably.

New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals

- Hakeem Nicks will play Sunday but bench him. If you have a better alternative go with it. Although the Cincinnati Bengals pass defense isn’t anything to write home about, Eli is in a funk and Nicks hasn’t done much all year anyway. If you have a decent alternative go with it.

-If you haven’t already dropped Andrew Hawkins, go ahead and do it.

-Andy Dalton is a pretty safe start against a spotty Giants secondary. I’d start him confidently this week.

New Orleans @ Atlanta

-There will be a lot of points in this game. We know about the QBs most definitely. As far as the WRs, I’d start Lance Moore in PPR formats. He’ll get a few looks as New Orleans will likely be putting it in the air a lot.

- Darren Sproles is OUT again so I’d go ahead and give the nod to Chris Ivory. Ingram leaves a lot to be desired and Ivory is always productive when he’s on the field and getting carries. A 13 carry for 62 yard and a TD performance isn’t out of the question. Pierre Thomas is worth a look as well.

Miami @ Tennessee

-Miami’s pass defense just yielded 430 yards to Indianapolis last week. While the Titans do not have a young promising QB like Andrew Luck, I’d start Kenny Britt anyway. He was pretty productive against a much better defense last week and I think he’s due for a monster week. This is more “hunch” than anything but start Britt.

-If you need a bye week QB, Ryan Tannehill might be a good choice. Tennessee’s pass defense isn’t good, and Tannehill is having a solid rookie campaign.

-If you’re in need of a bye week flex/WR, start Davone Bess in PPR formats. Tennessee’s secondary isn’t very good and Bess could get you 6-7 grabs. Also have to throw Brian Hartline in your starting lineups.

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by | November 4, 2012 · 2:00 am

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 9, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis   * rankings will be released late tonight.

Pittsburgh @ New York Giants

-Ahmad Bradshaw is questionable for the game as his foot is acting up again. If you have Andre Brown, be prepared to start him.

-Hakeem Nicks has been largely a disappointment this year. I expect him to have a good game against a spotty Steeler secondary though. On a side note, it has the feel of a bit of a “lost” year for him. On one end, his schedule gets a bit softer, but on the other end he’s been banged up all year. I’d wait for another breakout game then try and move him.

- Victor Cruz will rebound with a good game as he doesn’t have to see the Cowboys secondary. Nobody in that secondary can hang with him. The Steelers have the #1 rated pass defense but that is misleading because they haven’t really played anyone. And when they did, Peyton Manning shredded them. Don’t shy away from either Giant WR this week. They will get theirs.

-The Steeler backfield is in shambles with injuries and such but Issac Redman is the best of the options. Start Redman this week if you have no alternatives.

Arizona @ Green Bay

-While Larod Stephens Howling had a rough game against a great 49er defense this past week, the going should get a little smoother this week. He also provides in the passing game, and given the state of the Cardinals offensive line, that should provide value. I wouldn’t be completely confident in starting him because the Cardinals entire offense is sketchy but I wouldn’t drop him either. Keep an eye on him.

-Larry Fitzgerald has been up and down all year (product of shoddy QB play. No surprises here). I’d start him pretty confidently this week though. Not that John Skelton will ever inspire confidence in anyone, but Green Bay’s secondary isn’t good, and the Cardinals may be trailing for a good portion of the game. As bad as Skelton is, he should be able to find Fitzgerald enough to make it worth your while.

-Alex Green is getting a lot of touches in the Green Bay offense, but hasn’t stepped up. As a result the Packers are talking about getting James Starks more involved this week. If you can help it, hold on to him and monitor what happens, but make sure to leave him on the bench.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

-Jeremy Maclin hasn’t done much this season. Albeit, not entirely his own fault, he hasn’t done anything of note. To me, this is his last hurrah. If he can’t do anything against THAT secondary you should cut your losses and be done with it. That or leave him on your bench.

-Darren Sproles is out indefinitely. If you can, try and swing Pierre Thomas. His value takes a bit of a boost with Sproles out. Thomas can do a little of everything, and Mark Ingram has done next to nothing as a pro.

-DeSean Jackson should be a good play this week. It’ll be a challenge for NO to stop McCoy which may limit the Eagles pass attempts but when they do, Desean should be able to spring free.

- I view Michael Vick the same way I view Jeremy Maclin. If he can’t put up big numbers against New Orleans, his fantasy hope is doomed. Unlike Maclin, I have full confidence in him starting this week though. Start him and don’t look back. Potential turnovers be damned.

Baltimore @ Cleveland

-If you are in need of a QB alternative this week, go with Brandon Weeden. He has played well and Baltimore’s defense has been shoddy. He’s probably still on the wire, so if you need someone go with Weeden.

-Josh Gordon has been relatively successful but one wonders how much of that is actually sustainable. That being said, he’ll have plenty of opportunities against a struggling Ravens defense. Start him at your own risk.

-Cleveland’s defense has been “meh”, for lack of a better way to describe it. But they have improved since the return of CB Joe Haden so I’d ease off Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith until they regain the chemistry they had earlier in the season.

-Drop Dennis Pitta if you haven’t already. He stinks like your Uncle Seth’s armpits.

Detroit @ Jacksonville

-Matthew Stafford finally played like an elite QB. You Stafford owners can step off the ledge. Considering how bad Jacksonville’s run defense is, Stafford may have a light day at the office. Expect good numbers from him once again.

-MIkel Leshoure and Rashad Jennings are must starts. Leshoure is a must start because of the caliber of defense he’s playing and Jennings because he’s the every down back in Jacksonville now. Both guys will have productive days.

-I still don’t quite buy Cecil Shorts as an impact receiver especially with Blaine Gabbert as his QB. That defensive line will get after Gabbert so I wouldn’t be tempted by Shorts.

-With Nate Burleson out and defenses consistently playing 2 deep, Titus Young has to step up. He had 9 catches for 90 yards and a TD last week. Young might just hack it as a flex play this week, especially with word now that Calvin Johnson could be limited to third downs.

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by | October 28, 2012 · 7:35 am

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 8, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis

New England Patriots vs St. Louis Rams

-Aaron Hernandez is out. Plan accordingly.

- Mark Sanchez just finished throwing for 300+ yards on 70% completions on the Patriots. Par for the course as everyone throws on them. Sam Bradford is a decent play this week if your QB is on a bye, or if you might have shaken confidence in your QB (see: Vick, Michael and Romo, Tony)

- Don’t bother with either Rams RB. The Patriots are good at stopping the run and Steven Jackson just doesn’t look the same. You MIGHT steal a cheap TD out of Jackson but it’s not worth starting him to find out.

-If you’re desperate, give Brandon Gibson a start against that Patriots secondary. He seems to be the beneficiary of Danny Ammendola’s absence as he’s been the most targeted Rams WR since the trade. I already alluded to the Patriots terrible secondary, so if you’re in need of a jolt from an unexpected source, give Gibson a look.

-If you have an alternative, give Brandon Lloyd a break this week. Lloyd and Tom Brady still aren’t fully in sync yet, and the Rams don’t give up many big plays through the air. If you don’t have someone you’re comfortable with, DON’T do it. I’m not saying to bench him for anyone, but I don’t expect much production from him this week.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets

-Miami’s run defense is a significant strength of their team. Do not read anything into Shonn Greene’s last two fluky weeks. Do NOT put your stock in Shonn Greene. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a touchdown this week, but his performance the last two weeks is the anomaly (especially his SIX catches last week, when he had THREE the previous SIX games combined).

-If you need to take a flier on a WR this week, start Davone Bess (PPR). Although the numbers didn’t do it proper justice (a couple bubble screens went for big yardage), Isaiah Trufant did a great job on Welker last week. Who knows if he’ll be assigned on Bess this week but I don’t think he will perform that well two weeks in a row. I’d expect a 7-9 catch effort for Bess.

-Start Jeremy Kerley with confidence. To me, he is an every week flex. He’s become one of the lone bright spots on the Jets as he’s played well all year. The impact of Keller’s presence on the field can only do wonders for him as far as having more space to operate.

-Speaking of Keller, he had his first impact of the season last week. The Jets are going to have to throw the ball to succeed, and Keller is Sanchez’ favorite target. He’s a midlevel starting tight end this week. Start him accordingly.

Seattle @ Detroit

-Start Mikel Leshoure with confidence. With all the soft fronts that he sees as a result of Calvin Johnson’s presence on the field, Leshoure should have a nice day. Hopefully Detroit can avoid shooting themselves in the foot in the redzone, then Leshoure might get a TD.

-If you can pick up a Sam Bradford type, then sit Matt Stafford. I know he’s either your first or second round pick but he hasn’t hacked it so far this season. He’s been bad and Seattle’s pass defense is unrelenting and unfriendly to fantasy QBs. If you can get another guy or have a guy on your bench you feel comfortable with, go with them.

-Maybe this is just hopefulness, but I feel like you should keep an eye on Titus Young. Nate Burleson is hurt and SOMEONE has to step up opposite Calvin Johnson right? ANYONE? Right? I’m not saying to start him this week but I’m saying that taking a flier on him makes a lot of sense.

Redskins at Steelers

-Firstly, if you aren’t a fan of these two teams and you watch, I feel bad for your eyes having to deal with those uniforms the Steelers are wearing Sunday.

-Antonio Brown has been relatively solid but we’re looking for that breakout game. This may be it. Washington’s pass defense is brutally bad, the Steelers have a banged up backfield, and there will be a lot of points. Brown doesn’t find the endzone much but he should have plenty of opportunities to make his name felt otherwise.

- Santana Moss always seems to do well against the Giants, and overall is a solid WR. That being said, do not be duped into starting him this week. He’ll revert back to the normal this week.

-Start Jonathan Dwyer this Sunday if you MUST start one of those backs. He did come off a 100+ yard performance and he seems to be the only healthy and productive back out of them.

Jaguars @ Packers

-With MJD out, go ahead and start Rashad Jennings with confidence. He’s showed good things when he’s had the chance to start and someone has to move the ball.

-Randall Cobb had 8 catches and two TDs last week. And the Rodgers/Cobb combination has combined for an 85% completion percentage which is the best of any QB/WR combo in the league. With Jennings out, Cobb’s role continues to increase. Expect good things from him.

-At this point just drop Jermichael Finley or trade him for a pack of now and laters. He isn’t worth the headache anymore.

-Monitor Jordy Nelson’s injury situation carefully.

 

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by | October 14, 2012 · 12:56 am

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 6, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis

Houston @ Green Bay

-With Greg Jennings out, look for Randall Cobb to get increased playing time and touches. I’d start him pretty comfortably at the flex spot this week, especially in leagues that account for return yardage.

-Although they have Arian Foster in the backfield, start Matt Schaub. Green Bay’s secondary is spotty, and Andre Johnson will be looking to rebound from a dismal 1 catch for 15 yards effort on Monday night.

-I’m not sure what to make of Alex Green or anyone else in the Packer backfield at the current juncture. Green did well last week against a spotty Colts defense and looks like he has some talent. The Packers may try to establish the run. I’d keep him on the bench a week until it becomes clear how the Packers will employ their backfield. I do like his upside though.

-Be patient with Jordy Nelson. Rodgers has been uncharacteristically inaccurate on deep balls, and that should regress to the mean. And for those who DON’T own him, try and buy him low before Sunday. It is a perfect time to do so.

New York @ San Francisco

-I know Ahmad Bradshaw had 200 yards last week. That was the Cleveland Browns. These are the San Francisco 49ers. Sit him. Just do it. Trust me.

-Every Giant weapon in the passing game is start worthy (assuming Nicks is healthy and will play). They are clicking, and they won’t do much against the 49ers on the ground. If Nicks doesn’t play, I’d hesitantly start Reuben Randle.

-If you have a bye week QB, starting Alex Smith probably isn’t the worst thing in the world. If you can do better, go for it though.

Buffalo @ Arizona

-I don’t know what to make of Fred Jackson for the rest of the year, but this is a tough matchup for him and Buffalo is a mess. I preach patience with him as his production should increase as he gets healthier and his schedule gets lighter. For this week, I’d leave him alone though.

-Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent alternative if you have a QB on a bye week. He’ll throw a lot, there will probably be garbage time and thus the numbers will look pretty enough.

- Regarding the Cardinals RB situation, Larod Stephens-Howling and William Powell aren’t particularly promising options but I think Powell can contribute in PPR leagues. I’d watch both of them carefully however.

-Start Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts with confidence. Buffalo’s defense is a comedy routine. Watch and laugh expeditiously.

Dallas @ Baltimore

-If you have an alternative, sit Tony Romo. The interior of Dallas OL is comically bad, and they’ll have to deal with a good pass defense in the Ravens. I think Ravens DB Cary Williams will get picked on a bit, but not enough to make Romo a good start this week.

- That being said, I expect Dallas to be playing from behind so Miles Austin and to a lesser extent Dez Bryant are both good plays on Sunday.

-You can’t bench Torrey Smith but I don’t expect much from him this week. I expect Ray Rice to do serious damage, especially after the talk of him not getting the ball enough was a popular topic last week.

- If you have DeMarco Murray try and move him for a decent package right now before his value drops too much. This week might be a good week to do it as Baltimore’s run defense has struggled.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

- Joe Haden returns this week for Cleveland, but you are still starting A.J. Green regardless.

- If you haven’t already done so, drop Greg Little. He’s a waste of time.

-There is no reason to take Trent Richardson out of the lineup. He’s a borderline elite fantasy back at this rate and is incredibly fun to watch on a side note

-Cincinnati’s D/ST is probably a good bet with Brandon Weeden starting for the Browns.

 

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by | September 30, 2012 · 2:59 am

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 4, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

WR Hakeem Nicks is out. With the way the Eagles pass defense is going this year, this might mean bad news for WR Victor Cruz who will see a lot more attention. If you have WR Ramses Barden, just keep in mind that he’s dealing with Nnamdi Asomugha instead of the rookie CB he was dealing with in Carolina.

I’d still go with Mike Vick this week because I feel as if the Giants secondary is still a problem. While the Cardinals defense stymied him this past week, he should be better. A lot of the sacks against him are due to him holding the ball. Why he’s holding it, no one knows. Maybe I have irrational confidence in Vick, but I think he has a nice game this week.

I don’t know what the plan is with the Giants and how they plan on using Andre Brown/Ahmad Bradshaw in this game but I’d hesitate on starting Bradshaw. Given what Brown has done the last two weeks, I’d start him until given a reason not to.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins

Vincent Jackson hasn’t been that good this year. I think a large part of that is that Josh Freeman just isn’t any good. That being said, Washington lost their best defensive player and their secondary is a mess. Start Vincent Jackson confidently this week.

Any QB against a weak Redskins secondary is a tempting play this week but stay away from Josh Freeman. He isn’t progressing and he looks like the same guy he did in his rookie year and last year. His second year is looking like a fluke at this rate.

Doug Martin hasn’t had a “breakout” game yet, but he’s been consistently solid and the Buccaneers continue to feed him. Don’t be discouraged by his workman like performances. Eventually he’ll get 100 yards on the ground. He might not score much but he’s consistently getting touches.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets

Frank Gore had a rough week against the Vikings but he should rebound well against a struggling run defense. Reggie Bush was having his way with the Jets before he went down last week, and Gore, though he’s a different back, should have success. The Jets have their issues on defense this week.

Start Santonio Holmes. This isn’t exactly a wonderful option, and he won’t be going up against Richard Marshall again this week BUT against that defense someone has to move the ball. Given that he’s 5th in the league in targets this year, it might just be Holmes.

If your QB is on a bye week, and you can start Alex Smith do so with confidence. The Jets pass defense hasn’t been particularly good either. They just lost Revis and have no answers for Vernon Davis. Smith will never go for 300 yards and 2 TDs because the 9ers aren’t built to do so, but he could post a 225 and 2 TD kind of day.

Seattle @ St. Louis

Sam Bradford caught a dose of reality when he went up against a stingy Chicago Bears defense last week as he threw two interceptions and led the Rams to six points. Avoid him this week.

I’d start Danny Amendola this week simply because he’s basically the tallest kid in the room full of midgets. When Bradford does throw, he has to throw to someone right? Amendola is a good flex play until further notice.

Sit Steven Jackson. Great defense, and he’s hurt. That is a really bad combination for a Jackson owner.

 

Detroit @ Minnesota

Matthew Stafford, who has an injured hip, looks like he’s ready to go. Start him. Also, if you own Stafford and haven’t picked up Shaun Hill, do so immediately.

Start Mikel Leshoure. He came back from his suspension last week and saw the majority of the snaps at running back. He had 26 carries, 100 yards and a TD. He made Kevin Smith an afterthought and he should have plenty of opportunities to score TDs on a high powered offense.

Detroit’s pass defense has struggled all year. Christian Ponder has been a bit of a revelation and produces a bit with his legs. Kyle Rudolph scored two touchdowns last week against a great 49er defense.  Start both of them. They will put up points this week.

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by | September 22, 2012 · 7:12 am

FantasySavvy 2012: Week 3, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis,  @Klew24

Philadelphia @ Arizona

Start Vick with caution. He should have plenty of opportunities, as the Eagles defense will bottle up the Cardinals on Sunday. He also has been turnover prone, and the Cardinals do boast a good defense. And the Eagles lost 2 offensive linemen this past week. If you have a comparable backup option, I’d go with him.

Sit Larry Fitzgerald. I’m not saying his long term prospects this year look bleak. He will be fine. However, this week he’s going up against a good secondary. If you have a good option on your bench, go with it and feel comfortable. I know it’s hard benching a second round pick this early but it must be done.

Start Brent Celek. In this kind of game, against a good Arizona defense, I’d feel comfortable starting Vick’s safety blanket. Maclin is out which means there are targets to be had. Celek has had quite a start to the 2012 campaign and I’d expect that to continue.

Sit Desean Jackson. With Maclin out, I’d expect lots of rolled coverage to Jackson’s side. And with Patrick Peterson looming, I’d sit him out this week

Houston @ Denver

Sit Matt Schaub. I don’t think many people went into this season with Schaub as their starting QB but if you did, and you have a good bench option, go with him. Denver has actually done a fairly solid job against the pass.

Don’t be stirred by Peyton Manning’s performance last week. Yes he threw three picks but he’s also Peyton Manning. While his arm doesn’t look like what it once was, don’t overreact. While Houston is a tough matchup, I’d start Manning this week.

Start Willis McGahee. I know the Houston Texans defense is great, and Willis won’t get many yards on the ground. That being said, Peyton Manning led teams love running the ball inside the 10 yard line. I can see McGahee getting a TD or two this week on that account.

Stay patient with Eric Decker. A lot of people liked Decker over DeMaryius Thomas and I never really got why, but Decker should get better as the chemistry between him and Manning grows. He’s a solid WR.

St. Louis @ Chicago

Don’t be discouraged by Jay Cutler’s terrible performance last Thursday. He probably should have been a fringe starter/high end QB2 anyway, but if you have him, start him with confidence. The Rams defense isn’t particularly good.

Start Michael Bush. The Rams give up a robust 6+ YPC on runs up the middle. That is Michael Bush’s calling card. With Forte  OUT Sunday, Bush will likely have a big game.

Don’t get carried away with Danny Amendola. That being said, in PPR leagues, he’s an absolutely great flex play until proven otherwise. Start him with confidence. The Bears are a bend but don’t break kind of defense and Amendola will get a lot of looks.

Sit Stephen Jackson. He’s hurt, he may not play and if he does he’s playing against a very good run defense in the Bears. If you have comparable options, sit Jackson. Daryl Richardson could make for a sneaky flex play this week if Jackson is out, but the matchup isn’t great.

Green Bay @ Seattle

Sit Cedric Benson. Cedric Benson’s bread and butter is runs up the middle. Seattle stops them to the tune of a 2.2 YPC. Seattle’s defense is extremely tough and I think the Packers will do away with the run after realizing it isn’t going anywhere.

Start Randall Cobb. This seems like a game where the Packers will throw the ball 45+ times, and Cobb will see quite a few touches out of the backfield on 3rd down. If your league accounts for return yardage, that’s even better.

Sit Greg Jennings. Apparently he had a set back and he doesn’t have a good grasp on his groin injury. He plays Monday night so unless you have Randall Cobb on your bench, it’s best to bench him now and save yourself the headache.

Even with Aaron Rodgers coming in town, do NOT switch out the Seattle defense. They can play, and they will give Rodgers some trouble. Start them with confidence.

Kansas City @ New Orleans

Dwayne Bowe had 100+ yards and 2 touchdown scores last week. Start him again. Kansas City will likely be getting blown out and there will be plenty of garbage time minutes for Bowe to boost his numbers.

Mark Ingram isn’t a good RB, and he leaves a lot to be desired but he will have some chances to score on Sunday as NO will be marching against a struggling KC defense. If you need a flex and have him on your bench, give him a shot.

Start Lance Moore. Kansas City has struggled defending the pass as well. They weren’t really tested last week as CJ Spiller went nuts, but Brees and co will test them this week. Moore will be a good play this week.

KC will be down and KC will throw, so if you’re in need of a flex, or a RB in a pinch, start Dexter McCluster (PPR leagues). He will get 5-6 grabs and maybe sneak into the endzone. If you’re in need, take a chance and start him.

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by | September 13, 2012 · 10:38 pm

FantasySavvy: Week 2, Fantasy Five

By: Kevin Lewis

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

Jay Cutler had 333 yards and 2 touchdowns last week against the Colts. The Green Bay secondary looks like they still haven’t figured out how to stop any halfway decent passing attack. With Brandon Marshall back in the fold, I expect Cutler to go for over 300 again, with a couple of touchdowns. Start him in all formats.

Brandon Marshall, in his first game back with Jay Cutler, played like he never left him. Marshall was the most targeted WR in football for the two years he played with Cutler for the Denver Broncos. That trend seemed to continue as Cutler targeted Marshall 15 times and he caught 9 passes for 119 yards. Marshall, much like his QB, should have a huge game against a beleaguered Packers secondary. I expect 6+ catches, 80+ yards and a touchdown.  Start him in all formats confidently.

While the 49ers running game is a different animal, Frank Gore did average 7 yards per carry on Sunday. Matt Forte had  a solid game against Indianapolis as he touched the ball 18 times for 120 yards (15 carries for 80 yards and 3 carries for 40 yards). Michael Bush had 12 carries for 42 yards but scored two touchdowns. Forte is a viable play in any league format, while Michael Bush may be a decent flex play in deeper leagues.

Randall Cobb had nine catches for 77 yards and a punt return for a touchdown. The Packers are employing him in a similar fashion to the Vikings with Percy Harvin. Cobb was essentially the Packers third down back last week, and with Greg Jennings probably out he should see more touches. I’d start Cobb as a flex this week with confidence in PPR leagues and probably sit him for now in standard leagues unless return yardage is counted.

Cedric Benson had a snoozer in the game against the 49ers as he had 9 carries for 18 yards. I think Benson will have some kind of value this year even with that. The 49ers are the best defense in football for a reason and the Packers were behind for the entire game. That said, the Bears are no cupcakes either, and I wouldn’t start Benson this week unless you’re absolutely desperate which shouldn’t be the case in Week 2.

With Jennings likely out, the onus of the Packers passing offense in the WR corps is now on Jordy Nelson. He had 5 catches for 67 yards last week, and I don’t see any reason why Nelson won’t do at least that this week. Yes the Bears defense is really good, but Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the sport, and Nelson will be targeted early and often. I’d expect a cool 6 catches and 90 yards or so.

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite the fact that Mark Sanchez looked really good in the win over the Buffalo Bills last week, I’d hesitate having him as anything more than a QB2 this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense, headlined by Dick Lebeau, is a different animal.  They are going to be angry after the undressing by Peyton Manning last week, and the Jets won’t have much of a running game to take pressure off Sanchez. I’d keep Sanchez on my bench and keep him in mind when the matchups become more favorable.

Even with a lack of confidence in Sanchez putting together a good fantasy line against the Steelers, I have confidence in Santonio Holmes this week. I find it hard to believe that Stephen Hill will have the success that he did last week, and Dustin Keller seems to be more of a decoy than anything. Jeremy Kerley is also battling a bad back. But besides that Holmes can just flat out get open. He was open several times last week, and nearly had two touchdown catches. I expect him to have a nice game in his old stomping grounds. I think he’ll have something to the tune of 5 catches for 75 and a touchdown. If you’re looking for a guy to start and have Santonio Holmes, start him with confidence. I’d stay away from every other Jet however.

Last week the Steelers played it close to the vest and ran the ball quite a bit despite the fact that it wasn’t bringing them good returns. It was a bit odd, but I expect the Steelers to open it up going forward, starting this week.

Despite the fact that I think the Steelers will open it up after realizing they can’t run on the Jets, I’d still be hesitant to start Ben Roethlisberger because the Jets pass defense is still excellent and the Steelers offensive line is still shaky. He may put up #s on sheer volume but I wouldn’t bank on it. If you have a comparable or better option, sit Ben Roethlisberger this week.

With Darrelle Revis’ status up in the air for the game, it’s hard to definitively say anything about the Steelers WRs, but I’ll try my best. Assuming he plays, I think he’ll draw a lot of Antonio Brown. In that case I wouldn’t start him. If he doesn’t play, Brown will probably see a lot of Kyle Wilson and Brown would probably run wild in that instance. I don’t expect much from Mike Wallace as Antonio Cromartie has been very effective against him since joining the Jets, so if you have a better option sit Wallace.

The guy to start for the Steelers is Heath Miler. The Jets have had trouble covering tight ends for as long as I can remember and the Steelers have vowed to involve Miller in the offense more. Miller will be going against guys like Bart Scott, Laron Landry and David Harris. None of those guys are adept in coverage so Miller should have a nice day. 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown isn’t out of the realm for him on Sunday.

I’d stay away from any of the Steeler running backs until that situation clears itself up a little bit.

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers 

Philip Rivers had an efficient game last week but didn’t make much of an impact fantasy wise, as the Raiders seemed content with playing a bend but don’t break kind of defense. The Chargers line looks a bit spotty, and Rivers has new weapons to navigate but I’d start him this week. I like Rivers a lot this year mainly because I thought his demise was greatly exaggerated.

Chris Johnson’s week 1 performance did nothing to silence the doubts still remaining about Johnson after his lackluster 2011 campaign. He had 11 carries for a whopping FOUR yards. I don’t know if it’s the blocking, if he’s a misfit in the scheme or what have you but he needs to play better. I’d start him again this week but I’d have a far shorter leash with him this year than last year regardless of the fact that he’s probably your first round pick.

The Titans passing game this week is question marks abound. I think Jake Locker is in for a breakout season but he is already hurt. Kenny Britt is returning from suspension/injury and should be on a pitch count. Kendall Wright is in his second professional game. The only one of the Titans pass catchers I’d start is Jared Cook. He caught 4 passes for 64 yards in the opener and in the most encouraging bit of news is that he played the vast majority of the snaps. I would trot Jared Cook out there with confidence this week.

Given Ryan Mathews plays at 4 ET on Sunday, I’d bench him until he’s no longer in question to play. It might hurt if he plays and produces but an 0-fer is not something you can take.

I wouldn’t start any of the Charger pass catchers outside of Antonio Gates. It’s too muddled with the receivers in San Diego to confidently start any of them.

Tampa Bay @ New York Giants

Not that I expect him to have a huge impact on the game, but stay patient with David Wilson. For one, he’s really talented. For two, Ahmad Bradshaw is always injured.

Buy low on Hakeem Nicks. Between his injury and his quiet week 1, you may be able to get him for a lower price than usual this week. Take advantage. Otherwise, if you have him, feel comfortable starting him in any format. He will get going eventually and it may be this week

Don’t let Victor Cruz’ drops affect your thinking on him. His #s may drop this season based on the sheer fact that last season isn’t replicable but he had 11 drops last year as well. Drops will not affect his production.

The Buccaneers gave Doug Martin 28 carries last week. Greg Schiano likened him to Ray Rice so I can see this trend continuing. Josh Freeman isn’t very good and someone has to move the ball in Tampa. I’d continue to start Martin and feel comfortable with it. The Giants let DeMarco Murray get loose on a few runs. The only problem with Martin is the passing game might not be good enough to get him in position for touchdowns.

I’m not big on Vincent Jackson this year, mainly because Josh Freeman isn’t very good. At the same time, Freeman has to throw the ball to someone. I’d start Jackson this week and hope for the best.

Buffalo @ Kansas City

The Bills secondary looked inept last week in making Mark Sanchez look like Joe Montana. While I don’t think highly of Matt Cassel, I do think there will be opportunities in the passing game for the Chiefs. I think Dexter McCluster is a nice flex play in PPR leagues this year. He started off with 6 catches for 82 yards last week. Buffalo had trouble with Jeremy Kerley last week and I expect much of the same with McCluster.

Though Dwayne Bowe didn’t do much last week, I’d start him this week. Last year he produced with Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton as his QBs for half the year. Buffalo’s secondary isn’t very good, and if their pass rush is as inept as it was last week, there should be plenty of opportunities. Much like McCluster, I’d start Bowe with confidence this week.

You obviously start Jamaal Charles, but I think Peyton Hillis is a borderline start worthy play this week. I’d let him actually prove something before I throw him in as a flex though. Kansas City will run the ball a lot.

With the Bills losing Fred Jackson and David Nelson, I’d keep an eye on Donald Jones. I think he’s a sneaky good play in deeper leagues and a guy to keep an eye on otherwise. Last season, he was open quite a bit but Fitzpatrick couldn’t find him. Now with Nelson out, Jones should see some opportunities. If you’re in need of a flex, trot him out there, especially in PPR leagues. Fitzpatrick doesn’t have a great arm, and the Bills throw a lot of short passes so he should see a lot of opportunities.

Outside of CJ Spiller, there is nobody that is a can’t miss start for Buffalo this week.

 

 

 

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by | September 7, 2012 · 8:30 pm

Fantasy Savvy 2012: Fantasy Five, Week 1

By: Kevin Lewis

Bills at Jets

Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills

Synopsis: Let me preface this by saying that I like Stevie Johnson in fantasy this year. He’s a WR2 who you can get at bargain basement prices. That being said, I don’t expect him to do much of anything this week. With the talk of his overplayed success being popular all week, I expect Darrelle Revis to send him a clear message on Sunday. He’s a “Do Not Start” for me.

I actually think both these QBs are being unfairly discarded from a fantasy standpoint. I’ve never seen a QB account for 32 touchdowns and not get drafted the following year, but that is where we are with Mark Sanchez. I think folks are brainwashed by the potential of Tebow, who is awful, taking over. But if you’ve watched both of them play QB, it’s quite obvious that Sanchez is much better. I get that Tebow will slice into a lot of work inside the 10, but Sanchez should be at worst, a good bye week substitution.

While I’m not a big fan of Ryan Fitzpatrick from a reality standpoint, last year he was doing well fantasy wise before he hurt his ribs. Buffalo plans on spreading it out, and Fitzpatrick has a decent mix of weapons at his disposal including two running backs that are pass catching threats.

Speaking of backs, I expect Fred Jackson to show this season the same things he showed before he broke his leg last season. I fully expect that he will be a top 7-8 fantasy back and be a steal with where he’s going in drafts (I’ve never seen him go before round 3). Even with a relatively strong performance last season, I’m not buying CJ Spiller being a significant factor out of the backfield for Buffalo this season. I think folks are overthinking in that regard and I think folks forgot what Jackson was doing before he got hurt last season. That being said, I like Spiller as a decent flex option with potential for more with a Jackson injury. I actually don’t like either this week as I think the Jets defense is out to send a message but Jackson may get a TD. Spiller may cause damage out of the backfield, especially with three and four WR’s on the field. The Jets don’t have anyone to contend with him really.

Prediction: Jets 24 Bills 14

Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

Synopsis:  Matt Ryan, Jamaal Charles, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Julio Jones, Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rodgers. There are a lot of prominent fantasy names featured in this contest.

Many are high on Matt Ryan this season. I have even seen a few people pick him to win NFL MVP. From a reality standpoint, I think he’s immensely overrated but from a fantasy standpoint I can see a little uptick in his numbers. First of all, I think Julio Jones will be the second best WR in fantasy this year (second only to Megatron). Second of all, the consistently productive Roddy White and steady Tony Gonzalez surround Jones. Possibly the biggest reason for a potential breakout for Matt Ryan is the fact that Michael Turner is declining and there might be a need for a more heavy reliance on Ryan. That is also why I like Jacquizz Rodgers. Atlanta should pass the ball more, and Rodgers is more useful in that setting. I have Ryan in the second tier of QBs with guys like Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers.

It will be interesting to see what Jamaal Charles does after missing an entire season with an ACL tear. He relies heavily on lateral quickness. The positive is that, unlike Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall, he’s had plenty of time to recover. The Chiefs run blocking is pretty good, and Charles had a robust 6.1 YPC in 2009/2010 on 420 carries. If he’s healthy, he should be incredibly productive. Only downside is that he will never score a lot of touchdowns but he did score 16 touchdowns in 2009/2010 and that is more than enough not to sap his value. Peyton Hillis may have some value as a flex because Kansas City should be running the ball plenty. Dwayne Bowe, for all his shortcomings, had 1100 yards and 5 touchdowns catching the ball from Tyler Palko and Kyle Orton the last two months. He should have a big year.

Last note, Dexter McCluster may have some use as a flex option in deeper leagues, because he may get plenty of touches as a safety valve of sorts. Prediction: Atlanta 27 Kansas City 20

Washington @ New Orleans

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

Synopsis: Reality speaking, I really think the Saints will blow the Redskins out. Onto the fantasy side, there are interesting subplots at RB here on both sides. With Washington, you have the maddening tendency of Mike Shanahan to play Russian Roulette with his running backs. And with New Orleans, you have the conundrum that is Mark Ingram.

On the Redskins side, Roy Helu had a productive rookie season once he was inserted into the lineup, but now is second on the depth chart to the apparently less talented Evan Royster. In addition to that, rumblings about Alfred Morris became louder as camp progressed on. This situation is frustrating for me as a fantasy owner because I have Helu on three different teams as a late flier. In my eyes he is clearly the best back on the team but the Shanahan’s play around with the depth chart too much. The potential is there but the return likely won’t be because of circumstances Helu can’t control.

On the Saints side, you know what Darren Sproles is going to give you. He’s difficult to cover out of the backfield, and the short passes to him are like an extended running game for the Saints. The interesting player here is Mark Ingram. He struggled with injuries and had a general lack of productivity last year but he does have talent and he is setup to be a goalline back on arguably the most potent offense in football.  I think he is a good value where he is going because he can probably be a #2 back on your team and you’re getting him for #3 back/flex prices.

Who will start opposite Pierre Garcon for the Redskins? Who will fill Robert Meachem’s shoes? How will Jimmy Graham follow up his historic season last year? Who ends up being next in line behind Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston? What does Robert Griffin put forth in his rookie campaign? Prediction:  New Orleans 45 Washington 21

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Synopsis: I think Jermichael Finley is in for a breakout season this year. I think he’ll go for 1000+ yards. Why? I don’t really know. I’m not a huge fan of his mental makeup but the guy’s talent is so tantalizing, and you’d think more attention will be paid to Jordy Nelson who was second in the NFL in touchdowns last season. I like Finley as a top five tight end this year. Obviously, this is a tough matchup for him and the rest of the Packer offense.

Randall Cobb is a super sleeper for me, especially in leagues that keep track of return yards. Rodgers took kindly to him whenever he was on the field at wide receiver last year. With Driver being phased out a bit because of his decline, maybe Cobb’s workload increases. He’s shifty and runs good routes, and plays with the best QB in the sport. I see good things on the horizon.

On the 49ers side, Frank Gore is getting up there in “running back age”, and has quite a few miles on his tires. He had a rough second half of last year as he averaged less than four yards per carry and scored three touchdowns. The 49ers responded to that by signing Brandon Jacobs, and drafting LaMichael James to go with camp standout. Given a decline in the second half last year, and a conservative offense where his catches are practically eliminated because of being a consistent blocker, it’s not hard to see a scenario where Gore is no longer a RB1 caliber player. Kendall Hunter is a good late flier too as he’s impressed in camp, and Gore as mentioned is older and injury prone.

We’ll see if the 49ers continue to use Vernon Davis like they did in the playoffs where he had standout games against the Giants and Saints. If he does, he can be a top three TE. If not he’ll be what he was last year, an inconsistent player with a big game every now and again. Prediction: Packers 24 49ers 20

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Synopsis: Pittsburgh’s running back situation is loaded with question marks. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are pretty unremarkable talents and Rashard Mendenhall is fresh off an ACL injury and nobody knows when he’s coming back.

Todd Haley likes to throw the ball, and Ben Roethlisberger has a full arsenal of weapons. The line is spotty, but that’s never deterred Roethlisberger before. If Mike Wallace isn’t bitten by the typical post holdout lack of production, Roethlisberger could turn out to be a steal in the later rounds.

I also believe Antonio Brown will be the best fantasy WR on the Steelers and will end up top 10 overall in PPR formats. He’s in for a monster year.

On the Broncos, the most interesting developments will be the Eric Decker/DeMaryius Thomas dynamic and what McGahee will do now that the offense isn’t as run heavy. Without Tebow, and the defenses focusing to stop him in the game how will McGahee do? Who will be the more productive WR? DeMaryius or Decker? Will Peyton Manning’s neck hold up?

What will Jacob Tamme do? Unsurprisingly all of this hinges on Manning and just how healthy/productive he is. As far as this week, I’m not sure I like Manning in his first game against a defense that has given him trouble in the past. Long term though, I love the value with him.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27 Denver 21

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by | December 25, 2010 · 6:47 pm

Fantasy Matchups – Week 16 (Breakdown 1’Oclock Games)

By Alan Squatrito

 

Bills vs. Patriots

With the Patriots locking up a spot in the AFC East, the Bills have a chance of catching the Patriots in a trap game, but that shouldn’t really happen.  The Patriots still need to fight for the first seed to get home field advantage. The Bills are the worst rush defense in the NFL and that is no secret. Coach Belichick knows he doesn’t have to pull any tricks out of his sleeve in this game and he can simply pound the ball all game. I just hope he can motivate his players for 4 quarters against a team who is 4-10. I think Danny Woodhead and Benjarvus Green-Ellis are great starts this weekend! Woodhead is a better ppr start while Green-Ellis is a better touchdown heavy start. I am contemplating starting Woodhead over The Great White Water Buffalo this weekend (Peyton Hillis) because I have more confidence in this matchup against the Bills.  I like both Patriots running backs as solid number two backs this weekend while Fred Jackson is a solid number 1 @ home, as the Bills will be looking to leave the 2010 season on a high note. I wouldn’t trust any of the Patriots tight ends this weekend just because it’s always a guessing game. Whatever the Patriots let out about their tight ends in the media, pick the other tight end to start. The Patriots try to be slick as much as they can, revealing nothing or the complete opposite of their game plan prior to kickoff. Last weekend Aaron Hernandez “wasn’t feeling well” and “wasn’t expected to play.” The rookie hauled in two touchdowns! Unreal, I’d take a gamble on Gronkowski this weekend if I had to because his name has been mentioned in the media this week in terms of maybe having a few setbacks. Make no mistake; this game may be a high scoring game, especially in the second half. I like Wes Welker as a solid number two wide receiver while Steve Johnson is a border line number one receiver this weekend. I wouldn’t feel too confident starting any other players in this game, especially for your fantasy Super Bowl! I like the Bills to spoil the Patriots’ Christmas weekend fun and win this one 43-41.

Bears vs. Jets

The Bears and Jets respect one another and pride themselves in their defenses. This will be the Jets second road game in a row after beating the Steelers at Heinz Field last weekend. The Jets played a solid game against a great team last weekend while the Bears didn’t have to do much to get a win against the Vikings last weekend. These teams are both battle tested and I know it is hard to win two road games in a row but if there’s a few teams that can do that in the NFL, the Jets are one of them. I think this game is going to be a low scoring game because both teams can rely on their defenses. Their defenses may be the best fantasy starts this weekend for your Super Bowl squad. Jay Cutler is a number 2 quarterback this week in fantasy while Sanchez is a borderline number 3 quarterback this weekend for fantasy. Dustin Keller seems to be the best start to me out of all the players on both sides of the ball in this game. Dustin is a comfortable pillow for Sanchez to lie down on this year and especially in big games. I also like the Jets running backs this weekend. It’s not fun having to choose between Ladanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene each week but regardless it’s about that time one of them start doing something again. This is another guessing game but the truth of the matter is that Shonn Greene will most likely get the better of the two backs in between the 20’s while Ladanian may have the best chance to score in the red zone. Shonn Greene still has the edge in my mind because I think he can break one for a score while the Bears defense is tiring out. You can still flip a coin of course but if I had to pick one over the other I would pick Greene because I think he is due for a nice game, his teammates need him to pick up some slack. Santonio Holmes is a number three wide receiver start while Braylon Edwards is a risky option. I don’t think Johnny Knox should be started this weekend in any leagues to be honest with you all. I know it’s hard to sit him but I think Earl Bennett and Greg Olsen will have the better day. Devin Hester should be a wide receiver in every snap of this game to free up some space for the other wide receivers for the Bears. The Jets secondary is scary and so is Devin Hester, utilize him Coach! I don’t like Forte or Taylor this weekend because they are going up against the Jets rush defense that gives up 3.6 yards a carry. I don’t trust them. Matt Forte in a ppr league may get you some fantasy points however, but is still a weak flex play in my mind. I think the Jets go on the road and get another win 20-17.

 

 

Browns vs. Ravens

It’s times like these where teams start showing their true colors. If you make the playoffs or not Coaches and GM’s get a chance to evaluate their players, what they have left in the tank, and what they are willing to sacrifice at the end of the season. The Ravens mentality gets meaner and meaner as the season goes on and on top of that, they are playing their best football right now. Ray Lewis had nothing but fearful things to say after Tuesday’s practice about Peyton Hillis. He was disgruntled and agitated in the fact that the Ravens defense allowed Hillis to gash them for 144 yards and a score in their first meeting this year. I don’t think Hillis is scared, but it’s Hillis vs. the world this Sunday and I don’t think he is going to have a game like he did the first game they played. Also, I am going to take Ray Lewis’s word for it that they are going to slow down Hillis. Hillis also has been slowed down in the last couple of games and seems to be tiring out with 300 plus carries this season. It’s going to be a tough matchup for him but you know he is still going to get the rock all game. I think Hillis is more of a solid flex start this weekend instead of a number one or two fantasy running back. Ray Rice on the other hand is coming off his best game of the season last weekend with two scores and over 200 total yards in offense. Ray Rice is going to roll all over the Browns and I think he has a similar game to last week and continue providing a solid spark for the Ravens the rest of the way. I like Anquan Boldin as a solid number 2 wide receiver this weekend while I don’t trust any of the wide outs for the Browns. Well, I don’t really trust Colt McCoy and neither should you. The Ravens defense is going to gobble him up and get ready for the playoffs, start the Ravens defense with confidence as well! I like the Ravens smoking the Browns this weekend 31-10.

 

Jaguars vs. Redskins

Rex Grossman threw four touchdowns last weekend and had a 92 quarterback rating? It’s true. Maurice Jones-Drew being doubtful for this weekend’s game vs. the Redskins is also true. Rashad Jennings should fare well and is a solid number two running back regardless but I think the Jaguars are going to get spoiled by the Redskins in this one and lose a very important game, knocking them out of the playoff race. Ryan Torain has been back and showing the world why he is the number one running back for the Redskins, he can definitely carry the full load. Despite the fact that I may be in disagreement with the Shanahan’s this season and how they have treated Donovan McNabb, I still think Coach Shanahan is a better coach than Jack Del-Rio and this is what gives the Redskins the edge in this game.  I like Santana Moss as a number two wide receiver (had two td’s last weekend) this weekend as the Jaguars are not that solid in their pass defense this year, nor are they that great against the run while Ryan Torain remains a true number one running back this weekend on a team who likes to run the ball first before the pass. Chris Cooley is a solid number one tight end this weekend as well.  The Jaguars are ranked 23rd against opposing tight ends this season, so if you have Cooley start him with confidence. I know I ripped Grossman last weekend and I want to make an apology. He is a solid number two quarterback this weekend according to the Jags defense and his performance last week. I like David Garrard as a number two quarterback with upside to being a number one vs. the Redskins this weekend because the Redskins secondary is ranked in the bottom half of the league against the pass and they were actually ranked dead last for much of the 2010 season until recently. Marcedes Lewis is a true number one tight end this weekend as he seems to be the most reliable target for the Jags. I like Mike Sims-Walker as a number two wide receiver with some upside to be a solid number one. I like the Redskins winning this game on the road and spoiling the Jaguars chances of making the playoffs, 28-24.

 

Chiefs vs. Titans

The Chiefs have been proving to us time and time again that they are the real deal with one of the best running games in the NFL and with Matt Cassel coming along as their franchise quarterback of the future. Jamaal Charles is a solid number one start this weekend while Thomas Jones is a decent flex play. Dwayne Bowe is a risky start but then again the Chiefs are home and he is due for a better outing than his last three games. The Chiefs know that the Chargers are right behind them trying to compete in the division as well as the under the radar Raiders so I don’t think the Chiefs are going to take it easy at home in Arrowhead this weekend. The Titans are playing their hearts out for Jeff Fisher but they don’t have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat the Chiefs this weekend. The only person you can start with confidence this weekend for the Titans is Chris Johnson as he has been playing to his potential as of late. Kenny Britt is a risky number two start this weekend but also comes with very good upside. I like the Chiefs to win this game 24-17.

 

 

 

 

Dolphins vs. Lions

The Miami Dolphins are 1-6 at home and 6-1 on the road this year. Don’t ask me how or why but it’s the truth. The Lions have a decent chance of winning this game despite that it will be their second consecutive game on the road because Shaun Hill is going to be behind center once again for the Lions, giving them a better chance of winning. The Dolphins are one of the better run stuffers in the league so I expect the Lions to get their scores through the air, which makes Calvin Johnson still a great number one start this weekend, especially in ppr leagues. I don’t think this is going to be a high scoring game however and a lot of this game is going to be fought in between the 20’s all day. Ronnie Brown has potential to blow up against the Lions rush defense while they rank 27th against fantasy running backs this year so picture Ronnie Brown as a solid number two running back while Maurice Morris is a risky start and should be considered as only a flex, especially with Jahvid Best listed as probable. Don’t take that chance. Brandon Pettigrew is a better start this weekend than in the last couple of weeks because Hill is starting but Miami is very solid defending tight ends this season but Pettigrew is still a solid number two start at 6 foot 6 and the number one overall tight end picked in the draft two years ago. Anthony Fasano is a good start this weekend as a number two tight end while Brandon Marshall should be plugged in and is a solid number one this weekend. I like the Lions to win their second road game in a row, 20-17.

 

 

Rams vs. Niners

This team has the craziest quarterback controversy all season long but the Niners will start Troy Smith once again instead of Alex Smith for the rest of the regular season. Rumor has it that Troy Smith wants to play more than Alex Smith while Alex Smith seems to have had it with all the criticism in San Francisco. Alex Smith seems to be in similar shoes as Joey Harrington when he played with the Lions unfortunately but the song must go on and the Niners will look to get their second win against the Rams this season while rookie Sam Bradford is going through his rookie slump. The Niners are going to find a way to win this game but I am not sure who is going to be the go to guy to give your fantasy team the edge this weekend if you had to rely on a 49er. Vernon Davis seems to have the most upside with Troy back in the lineup but consider the 49ers to play it conventional and very similar to the first game they have played against the Rams because the 49ers are a very predictable team and will stick with what has worked in the past, hence another reason to start Troy Smith this weekend as he beat the Rams the first time they played this season. Troy Smith had 356 yards passing while Vernon Davis had 79 yards receiving. This was a close game 23-20 with very few mistakes. Frank Gore was also healthy and playing in this game while Sam Bradford was in the midst of playing solid football. I think the Niners have the formula to win this game despite that they are on the road. I simply just don’t trust Sam Bradford and think he will make more mistakes than Troy Smith. Anthony Dixon and Brian Westbrook are risky starts this weekend because you’re not too sure who will get a better chance to score but I give Dixon the edge with a few goal line carries. Steven Jackson is a low end number one running back this weekend and you know he is going to contribute to your fantasy team win or lose (actual game). Michael Crabtree scored a touchdown the last time they played and may score one again in this matchup, we will have to wait and see. I like the 49ers to win this game on the road, 28-17. Good Luck in the fantasy Super Bowl gang! Win that $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$! Merry Christmas!

 

 

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